A history of evidence in medical decisions: From the diagnostic sign to Bayesian inference

Medical Decision Making

Volumn 32, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 227-231

  Mazur, Dennis J ^a  

^a OREGON HEALTH AND SCIENCE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

evidence; games of chance; history of evidence; inference; probability

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSIS; EVIDENCE BASED MEDICINE; HISTORY; HUMAN; PROBABILITY; UNITED KINGDOM;

BAYES THEOREM; DECISION SUPPORT TECHNIQUES; DIAGNOSIS, DIFFERENTIAL; ENGLAND; EVIDENCE-BASED MEDICINE; HISTORY, 17TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 18TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 19TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 20TH CENTURY; HISTORY, 21ST CENTURY; HUMANS; PROBABILITY;

EID: 84859297593     PISSN: 0272989X     EISSN: 1552681X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0272989X11434739     Document Type: Review

References (25)

1. Hacking I The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction, and Statistical Inference. New York: Cambridge University Press; ; 1991:
2. Bernstein PL Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk. New York: Wiley ; 1996:
3. Edgeworth FY The Encyclopedia Britannica: A Dictionary of Arts, Sciences. 22, 11th ed.Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 1911. p 376-403. Chisholm H, ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press ; 1911: 376-403.
4. Shafer G The early development of mathematical probability. In Grattan-Guinness I, ed. The Companion Encyclopedia of the History and Philosophy of the Mathematical Sciences. New York: Routledge ; 1993: 1293-1302.
5. Bernoulli D. (1738). Exposition of a New Theory on the Measurement of Risk. Translated from the original Latin to English by Louise Sommer. Econometrica. 1954 ; 22: 23-36
6. ShaferG. The early development of mathematical probability. Available from: URL: http://www.glennshafer.com/assets/downloads/articles/article50.pdf
7. Hald A A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications Before 1750. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley ; 2003:
8. Bernoulli J Opus Posthumum. Bruxelles, Belguim: Culture e Civilization ; 1968:
9. Dale AI A History of Inverse Probability From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson. 2 nd ed). New York: Springer-Verlag, 1999, p. 7. New York: Springer-Verlag ; 1999: 7.
10. Stigler SM The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty before 1900. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press ; 1986:
11. An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances by the late Rev. Mr. Bayes, communicated by Mr. Price, in a letter to John Canton MA and FRS. Read December 23, 1763. First publication. Philos Trans R Soc Lond. 1764;53:370-418. http://www.stat.ucla.edu/history/essay.pdf, p. 4.
12. Simpson T The Nature and Laws of Chance. London; London: Printed by Edward Cave, St. John's Gate ; 1740:
13. de Moivre A The Doctrine of Chances: Or, a Method of Calculating the Probabilities of Events in Play. 3 rd ed.London: Printed for A. Millar, in the Strand; 1756. London: Printed for A. Millar, in the Strand ; 1756:
14. O'ConnorJJRobertsonEF. Thomas Simpson. MacTutor History of Mathematics. JOC/EFR, 1996. Available from: URL: http://www-groups.dcs.st-and.ac.uk/ ∼history/Biographies/Simpson.html
15. McGrayne SB The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian submarines, & Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press ; 2011:
16. Jaynes ET, Bretthorst GL Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. New York: Cambridge University Press; ; 2007:
17. Fienberg SE. When did Bayesian inference become Bayesian?. Bayesian Anal. 2006 ; 1: 1-40
18. Laplace PS A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities. New York: Dover Publications ; 1814 1951:
19. Laplace PS. Memoir on the Probability of the Causes of Events.. 1986 ; 1: 359-63
20. Laplace PS. Mémoire sur les Probabilités. Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences de Paris. 1778 ;: 227-332
21. Woodward RS Probability and Theory of Errors. 4 th ed.New York: Wiley & Sons; 1906. New York: Wiley & Sons ; 1906:
22. Howie D Interpreting Probability: Controversies and Developments in the Early Twentieth Century. New York: Cambridge University Press; ; 2002:
23. Cowles M Statistics in Psychology: An Historical Perspective. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum; ; 2001:
24. Laplace PS Théorie Analytique des Probabilités; par M. le comte de Laplace... [With:] Supplement [Premier-Deuxième- Troisième]. Paris: Mme Ve Courcier ; 1812 [-1820]:
25. Daston L Classical Probability in the Enlightenment. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press ; 1988: