Why have sustained increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes not offset declines in cardiovascular mortality over recent decades in Western countries?

Nutrition, Metabolism and Cardiovascular Diseases

Volumn 22, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 307-311

  Capewell, Simon ^a   Buchan, Iain ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Cardiovascular; Mortality; Obesity; Trends; Type 2 diabetes; Western countries

Indexed keywords

BODY MASS; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; HUMAN; MORTALITY; NON INSULIN DEPENDENT DIABETES MELLITUS; OBESITY; REVIEW; RISK FACTOR;

BODY MASS INDEX; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2; HUMANS; OBESITY; RISK FACTORS;

EID: 84858440084     PISSN: 09394753     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.numecd.2012.01.005     Document Type: Review

References (14)

1. Danaei G., Finucane M.M., Lin J.K., Singh G.M., Paciorek C.J., Cowan M.J., et al. National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants. Lancet 2011 Feb 12, 377(9765):568-577. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Jul 18]. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21295844.
2. Farzadfar F., Finucane M.M., Danaei G., Pelizzari P.M., Cowan M.J., Paciorek C.J., et al. National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants. Lancet 2011 Feb 12, 377(9765):578-586. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Jun 11]. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21295847.
3. Anand S.S., Yusuf S. Stemming the global tsunami of cardiovascular disease. Lancet 2011 Feb 12, 377(9765):529-532. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Jul 28]. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21295845.
4. Wang Y.C., McPherson K., Marsh T., Gortmaker S.L., Brown M. Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USA and the UK. The Lancet 2011 Aug, 378(9793):815-825. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Aug 28]. http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0140673611608143.
5. Finucane M.M., Stevens G.a., Cowan M.J., Danaei G., Lin J.K., Paciorek C.J., et al. National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants. Lancet 2011 Feb 12, 377(9765):557-567. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Jun 10]. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21295846.
6. Renehan A.G., Soerjomataram I., Leitzmann M.F. Interpreting the epidemiological evidence linking obesity and cancer: a framework for population-attributable risk estimations in Europe. European Journal of Cancer (Oxford, England: 1990) 2010 Sep, 46(14):2581-2592. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Sep 2]. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20843487.
7. Whitlock G., Lewington S., Sherliker P., Clarke R., Emberson J., Halsey J., et al. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900,000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet 2009 Mar 28, 373(9669):1083-1096. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Jun 11]. http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi%3Fartid%3D2662372%26tool%3Dpmcentrez%26rendertype%3Dabstract.
8. Wormser D., Kaptoge S., Di Angelantonio E., Wood A.M., Pennells L., Thompson A., et al. Separate and combined associations of body-mass index and abdominal adiposity with cardiovascular disease: collaborative analysis of 58 prospective studies. Lancet 2011 Mar 26, 377(9771):1085-1095. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Sep 1]. http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi%3Fartid%3D3145074%26tool%3Dpmcentrez%26rendertype%3Dabstract.
9. Abdullah A., Wolfe R., Stoelwinder J.U., de Courten M., Stevenson C., Walls H.L., et al. The number of years lived with obesity and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. International Journal of Epidemiology 2011 Aug, 40(4):985-996. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Aug 24]. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21357186.
10. Gregg E.W., Cheng Y.J., Cadwell B.L., Imperatore G., Williams D.E., Flegal K.M., et al. Secular trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors according to body mass index in US adults. JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association 2005 Apr 20, 293(15):1868-1874. [Internet] Available from: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15840861.
11. Buchan I., Winn J., Bishop C. A unified modeling approach to data-intensive healthcare. The fourth paradigm: data-intensive scientific discovery 2009, Microsoft Research, Washington, DC, [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Sep 8]: pp. 91-98. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download%3Fdoi%3D10.1.1.153.3376%26rep%3Drep1%26type%3Dpdf.
12. Franco M., Orduñez P., Caballero B., Tapia Granados J.a., Lazo M., Bernal J.L., et al. Impact of energy intake, physical activity, and population-wide weight loss on cardiovascular disease and diabetes mortality in Cuba, 1980-2005. American Journal of Epidemiology 2007 Dec 15, 166(12):1374-1380. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Sep 1]. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17881386.
13. NICE Prevention of cardiovascular disease at population level 2010, vol. 25. Public Health Guidance, London, [Internet] Available from: http://guidance.nice.org.uk/PH25.
14. Ford E.S., Capewell S. Proportion of the decline in cardiovascular mortality disease due to prevention versus treatment: public health versus clinical care. Annual Review of Public Health 2011 Apr 21, 32:5-22. [Internet] Available from:, [cited 2011 Aug 15]. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21417752.