The Syrian Uprising of 2011: Why the Asad Regime Is Likely to Survive to 2013

Middle East Policy

Volumn 19, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 72-84

  Landis, Joshua ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84858331163     PISSN: 10611924     EISSN: 14754967     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2012.00524.x     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Interview with Mohammed Riad Al-Shaqfa by Mohammed Al Shafey, "Bashar al-Asad Is Mentally Unbalanced - Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Chief,"Asharq Al-Awsat, May, 12, 2011
2. Hanna Batatu, "Some Observations on the Social Roots of Syria's Ruling, Military Group and the Causes for its Dominance," The Middle East Journal 35 (Summer 1981): 341.
3. Nikolaos Van Dam, The Struggle for Power in Syria: Politics and Society under Asad and the Ba'th Party (I. B. Tauris, 2011).
4. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, "Assessing Asad: The Syrian Leader Isn't Crazy. He's Just Doing Whatever It Takes to Survive,"Foreign Policy online, December, 20, 2011 Alasdair Drysdale and Raymond A. Hinnebusch wrote in 1991: "Since the Baathi regime ultimately owes its position to the loyalty of the armed forces, Alawis are disproportionately represented in the armed forces. By one estimate Sunni officers only commanded between 25 and 30 percent of armed units between 1965 and 1971," Nevertheless, the contention that the Syrian military is an exclusive preserve of the Alawis is false and simplistic." Council on Foreign Relations "Syria and the Middle East Peace Process," 1991.
5. Hurriyet, November 17, 2011. Under the Sunni Arab president of Syria, Adib Shishakli, minorities, in particular the Druze, were discriminated against in key government positions. The U.S. ambassador wrote in 1953: "Recognizing the clannishness of the Druze community, its secret religion, and social differentiation from the rest of Syria, General Shishakli has appeared to follow a policy of limiting the number of Druzes holding key positions." In the ranks of the Foreign Service, for example, the only Druze to hold an important post was the ambassador to Washington, Farid Zayn al-Din, and he was a Lebanese Druze who had officially converted to Sunni Islam. Druze members of the Syrian diplomatic corps complained bitterly that they had abandoned all hope of career advancement because the "authorities would not permit two Druzes to serve at the same Foreign Service post," presumably because of their traditional unreliability. See Joshua Landis, "Shishakli and the Druzes: Integration and Intransigence," in T. Philipp & B. Schäbler, The Syrian Land: Processes of Integration and Fragmentation (Franz Steiner Verlag, 1998), 369-396.
6. Yahya Sadowski, "Patronage and the Ba'th: Corruption and Control in Contemporary Syria," Arab Studies Quarterly 9, no. 4 (1987): 442-461
7. Volker Perthes, Political Economy of Syria under Asad (I. B. Tauris, 1995), 181
8. "What Do Sunnis Intend for Alawis following Regime Change?", Syria Comment, August 30, The anonymous author of this article is an Alawi whose father served as a minister under Bashar.2006
9. "Syrian Sunni Cleric Threatens: 'We Shall Mince [The Alawis] in Meat Grinders,'" Memri videos, accessed December 1, 2011
10. Interview with Mohammed Riad Al-Shaqfa, "Asad is mentally unbalanced."
11. "Assessing the Risks of Military Intervention" (January 5, 2012) posted on the Syrian National Council website, accessed January 52012
12. Ghaith Abdul-Ahad, "Inside Syria: The Rebel Call for Arms and Ammunition,"Guardian, December, 11, 2011.
13. Dan Bilefsky, "Factional Splits Hinder Drive to Topple Syria Leader,"New York Times, December 8, 2011.
14. Al Jazeera interviews Nir Rosen, Uploaded by Al Jazeera English on January 10, 2012, accessed January 11, 2012
15. "Syria Opposition Leader Interview Transcript, 'Stop the Killing Machine,'"Wall Street Journal, December 2, 2011
16. Email communication with Ausama Munajed, December 2011.
17. "A Member of the Syrian National Council: 'Bashar Uses Ghalioun, and the NCB Are Mukhabarat,'"Syria Politics, accessed January 8, 2012
18. "Lies in the Announcement of Burhan," NCB website, accessed January 3, 2012 See the criticism of the union on al-Jazeera English by Ashraf al-Muqdad of the Damascus Declaration. He claims most opposition members want foreign military intervention. Interview on al-Jazeera, Dec 31, 2011
19. Ashish Kumar Sen, "Syrian Opposition Row over Foreign Military Action Nixes Unity Effort,"Washington Times, January 6, 2012.
20. The best report on the Kurdish parties and their attitude toward the uprising is "Report: Who Is the Syrian-Kurdish Opposition? The Development of Kurdish Parties, 1956-2011," Kurdwatch, European Center for Kurdish Studies, December 31, 2011, accessed December 31, 2012
21. "Syrian Revolution News Round-up: Day 278: Saturday, 17 Dec 2011," The Strategic Research and Communications Centre
22. Syrian National Council Announcement, accessed December 21, 2011
23. Ariel I. Ahram, "State-Breaking and the Crisis of Arab Authoritarianism" (unpublished: 2011)
24. Tarik Yousef, "Development, Growth, and Policy Reform in the Middle East and North Africa since 1950,"Journal of Economic Perspectives 19, no.3 (2004)
25. Steve Heydemann, "Social Pacts and the Persistence of Authoritarianism in the Middle East," in Oliver Schlumberger, ed., Debating Authoritarianism: Dynamics and Durability in Non-Democratic Regimes (Stanford University Press, 2007). For an excellent history of the region's political-economic transition, see Alan Richards and John Waterbury, A Political Economy of the Middle East (Westview, [3rd edition])2007
26. Stephen King, The New Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa (Indiana University Press, 2009).
27. Dalia Haidar, "Drawing the Poverty Line,"Syria Today, (May 2010), accessed December 29, 2011
28. "Drought Had Significant Impact on Syria's Northeast, UN Official Says,"Syria Report, September 13, 2010, accessed December, 12, 2011. Abigail Fielding-Smith, "Uprising Exposes Syria's Economic Weaknesses,"Financial Times, April 26 2011.
29. David Biello, "Are High Food Prices Fueling Revolution in Egypt?"Scientific American, February 1, 2011, accessed January 4, 2012
30. Armand Hurault, "Syria: It's the Economy, Stupid!"Transnational Crisis Project, posted on 11/11/2011, accessed January 4, 2012
31. Nader Kabbani, "Arab Youth Unemployment: Roots, Risks and Responses," Director of Research, Syria Trust for Development. Presented at the Conference on Arab Youth Unemployment: Roots, Risks and Responses, Carnegie Middle East Center, Beirut, Lebanon, February 10, 2011. Accessed January 3, 2012
32. Ragui Asad and Farzaney Roudi-Fahimi, "Youth in the Middle East and North Africa: Demographic Opportunity or Challenge?" Population Reference Bureau, 2007, (accessed December 29, 2011).
33. He said the new findings were the result of a field survey conducted by his administration. Jihad Yazigi, "Syrian Unemployment at Twice Previously Estimated Level,"Syria Report, December 19, 2011, accessed Jan 2, 2012
34. Liz Sly, "Syria's Economy Is Key to Asad's Future,"Washington Post, November 14, 2011, accessed November 14, 2011
35. Phil Sands, "Syria Sees Tourist Numbers Leap 40%,"The National, January 25, 2011, accessed January 5, 2012
36. "Sanctions against Syria As Effective As Bullets, Maybe,"Economist, December 3, 2011.
37. Sly, "Syria's Economy."
38. Elias Najma as quoted in "To Cover a Budget Deficit of syr. 500, a Financial Expert Advises the Government to Require Rich Businessmen to Pay Extraordinary Levies,"Syria Steps, December 28, 2011, accessed December 28, 2011
39. Sly, "Syrian Economy."
40. Interviewee asked not to be named, January 2, 2011.