Using prior information to build probabilistic invasive species risk assessments

Biological Invasions

Volumn 14, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 681-691

  Diez, Jeffrey M ^a   Hulme, Philip E ^b   Duncan, Richard P ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

^b LINCOLN UNIVERSITY   (New Zealand)

Author keywords

Bayesian; Invasive species; Prior information; Risk assessment

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; BIOLOGICAL INVASION; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; HETEROGENEITY; INVASIVE SPECIES; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

AUSTRALIA; NEW ZEALAND;

EID: 84858006433     PISSN: 13873547     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10530-011-0109-5     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. Affre L, Suehs CM, Charpentier S, Vila M, Brundu G, Lambdon P, Traveset A, Hulme PE (2010) Consistency in the habitat degree of invasion for three invasive plant species across Mediterranean Islands. Biol Invasions 12: 2537-2548.
2. Blackburn TM, Duncan RP (2001) Determinants of establishment success in introduced birds. Nature 414: 195-197.
3. Caley P, Lonsdale WM, Pheloung PC (2006) Quantifying uncertainty in predictions of invasiveness. Biol Invasions 8: 277-286.
4. Chytry M, Pysek P, Wild J, Pino J, Maskell LC, Vila M (2009) European map of alien plant invasions based on the quantitative assessment across habitats. Divers Distrib 15: 98-107.
5. Clark JS (2007) Models for ecological data: an introduction. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
6. Daehler CC (1998) The taxonomic distribution of invasive angiosperm plants: ecological insights and comparison to agricultural weeds. Biol Conserv 84: 167-180.
7. Dawson W, Burslem D, Hulme PE (2009a) Factors explaining alien plant invasion success in a tropical ecosystem differ at each stage of invasion. J Ecol 97: 657-665.
8. Dawson W, Burslem D, Hulme PE (2009b) The suitability of weed risk assessment as a conservation tool to identify invasive plant threats in East African rainforests. Biol Conserv 142: 1018-1024.
9. Diez JM, Buckley HL, Case BS, Harsch MA, Sciligo AR, Wangen SR, Duncan RP (2009a) Interacting effects of management and environmental variability at multiple scales on invasive species distributions. J Appl Ecol 46: 1210-1218.
10. Diez JM, Williams PA, Randall RP, Sullivan JJ, Hulme PE, Duncan RP (2009b) Learning from failures: testing broad taxonomic hypotheses about plant naturalization. Ecol Lett 12: 1174-1183.
11. Duncan RP, Bomford M, Forsyth DM, Conibear L (2001) High predictability in introduction outcomes and the geographical range size of introduced Australian birds: a role for climate. J Anim Ecol 70: 621-632.
12. Ellison AM (2004) Bayesian inference in ecology. Ecol Lett 7: 509-520.
13. Essl F, Moser D, Dullinger S, Mang T, Hulme PE (2010) Selection for commercial forestry determines global patterns of alien conifer invasions. Divers Distrib 16: 911-921.
14. Fridley JD (2008) Of Asian forests and European fields: eastern U. S. plant invasions in a global floristic context. Plos One 3: e3630.
15. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Rubin HSSB (2004) Bayesian data analysis, 2nd edn. Chapman and Hall/CRC, NY.
16. Gordon DR, Onderdonk DA, Fox AM, Stocker RK (2008) Consistent accuracy of the Australian weed risk assessment system across varied geographies. Divers Distrib 14: 234-242.
17. Gravuer K, Sullivan JJ, Williams PA, Duncan RP (2008) Strong human association with plant invasion success for Trifolium introductions to New Zealand. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 6344-6349.
18. Groves RH, Panetta FD, Virtue JG (eds) (2001) Weed risk assessment. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.
19. Hayes KR, Barry SC (2008) Are there any consistent predictors of invasion success? Biol Invasions 10: 483-506.
20. Herron PM, Martine CT, Latimer AM, Leicht-Young SA (2007) Invasive plants and their ecological strategies: prediction and explanation of woody plant invasion in New England. Divers Distrib 13: 633-644.
21. Hulme PE (2009) Trade, transport and trouble: managing invasive species pathways in an era of globalisation. J Appl Ecol 46: 10-18.
22. Hulme P (2011) Biosecurity: the changing face of invasion biology. In: Richardson DM (ed) Fifty years of invasion ecology. The legacy of Charles Elton. Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford, pp 301-314.
23. Hulme PE, Weser C (2011) Mixed messages from multiple information sources on invasive species: a case of too much of a good thing? Divers Distrib. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1472-4642. 2011. 00800. x.
24. Hulme P, Pyšek P, Nentwig W, Vilà M (2009) Will threat of biological invasions unite the European Union? Science 324: 40-41.
25. Hurlbert SH (1984) Pseudoreplication and the design of ecological field experiments. Ecol Monogr 54: 187-211.
26. Jackson CH (2008) Displaying uncertainty with shading. Am Stat 62: 340-347.
27. Krivánek M, Pysek P (2006) Predicting invasions by woody species in a temperate zone: a test of three risk assessment schemes in the Czech Republic (Central Europe). Diver Distrib 12: 319-327.
28. Lambdon PW, Lloret F, Hulme PE (2008) How do introduction characteristics influence the invasion success of Mediterranean alien plants? Perspect Plant Ecol Evol Syst 10: 143-159.
29. Lindley DV, Novick MR (1981) The role of exchangeability in inference. Annal Stat 9: 45-58.
30. Lloret F, Medail F, Brundu G, Hulme PE (2004) Local and regional abundance of exotic plant species on Mediterranean islands: are species traits important? Glob Ecol Biogeogr 13: 37-45.
31. Mack RN, Simberloff D, Lonsdale WM, Evans H, Clout M, Bazzaz FA (2000) Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control. Ecol Appl 10: 689-710.
32. McCarthy MA (2007) Bayesian methods for ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
33. McCarthy MA, Masters P (2005) Profiting from prior information in Bayesian analyses of ecological data. J Appl Ecol 42: 1012-1019.
34. McCarthy MA, Citroen R, McCall SC (2008) Allometric scaling and Bayesian priors for annual survival of birds and mammals. Am Nat 172: 216-222.
35. McMahon SM, Diez JM (2007) Scales of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems. Ecol Lett 10: 437-452.
36. Milbau A, Stout JC, Graae BJ, Nijs I (2009) A hierarchical framework for integrating invasibility experiments incorporating different factors and spatial scales. Biol Invasions 11: 941-950.
37. Pauchard A, Cavieres LA, Bustamante RO (2004) Comparing alien plant invasions among regions with similar climates: where to from here? Divers Distrib 10: 371-375.
38. Pheloung PC, Williams PA, Halloy SR (1999) A weed risk assessment model for use as a biosecurity tool evaluating plant introductions. J Environ Manag 57: 239-251.
39. Pyšek P (1998) Is there a taxonomic pattern to plant invasions? Oikos 82: 282-294.
40. Pyšek P, Richardson DM (2007) Traits associated with invasiveness in alien plants: where do we stand? In: Nentwig W (ed) Biological invasions. Springer, Berlin, pp 97-126.
41. Pysek P, Richardson DM, Pergl J, Jarosik V, Sixtova Z, Weber E (2008) Geographical and taxonomic biases in invasion ecology. Trends Ecol Evol 23: 237-244.
42. R Development Core Team (2008) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for statistical computing, Vienna. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, url http://www. R-project. org.
43. Theoharides KA, Dukes JS (2007) Plant invasion across space and time: factors affecting nonindigenous species success during four stages of invasion. New Phytol 176: 256-273.
44. Thomas A, O'Hara RB, Ligges U, Sturtz S (2006) Making BUGS open. R News 6: 12-17.
45. van Kleunen M, Weber E, Fischer M (2010) A meta-analysis of trait differences between invasive and non-invasive plant species. Ecol Lett 13: 235-245.
46. Weber J, Panetta FD, Virtue J, Pheloung P (2009) An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system. J Environ Manag 90: 798-807.
47. Williams PA, Newfield M (2002) A weed risk assessment system for new conservation weeds in New Zealand. Sci Conserv 209: 23.