Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 2, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 125-131

  Mahoney, Kelly ^a   Alexander, Michael A ^b   Thompson, Gregory ^c   Barsugli, Joseph J ^d   Scott, James D ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY CORPORATION FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^c NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^e EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CLOUD; FLOOD; FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; HAIL; MELTING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RESOLUTION; RISK FACTOR; THUNDERSTORM;

COLORADO; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84857478522     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1344     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Doesken, N. J. Hail, hail, hail! The summertime hazard of eastern Colorado. Colorado Climate Publication 17 (Special Feature Section, 1994).
2. Changnon, S. A. & Changnon, D. Long-term fluctuations in hail incidences in the United States. J. Clim. 13, 658-664 (2000). (Pubitemid 30337895)
3. Changnon, S. A., Changnon, D. & Hilberg, S. D. Hailstorms Across the Nation: An Atlas About Hail and its Damages (Illinois State Water Survey, ISWS CR 2009-12, 2009).
4. McKee, T. B. & Doesken, N. J. Colorado Extreme Storm Precipitation Data Study Climatology Report 97-1 (Colorado State Univ. Dept Atmospheric Science, 1997).
5. Cotton, W. R., McAnelly, R. L. & Ashby, T. Development of New Methodologies for Determining Extreme Rainfall: Final Report for Contract ENC #C154213-State of Colorado (Dept Natural Resources, Dept Atmospheric Science, Colorado State Univ. 2003).
6. Jarrett, R. D. in What We Have Learned Since the Big Thompson Flood Vol. 16 (ed. Gruntfest, E. C.) 203-212 (Natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center, Special Publication, 1987).
7. Jarrett, R. D. Paleohydrology techniques used to define the spatial occurrence of floods. Geomorphology 3, 181-195 (1990).
8. Jarrett, R. D. Kuo, C.Y. (ed.) in Engineering Hydrology-Proceedings of the Symposium Sponsored by the Hydraulics Division, July 25-30, 1993, San Francisco, CA 180-185 (ASCE, 1993).
9. Grimm, M. M., Wohl, E. E. & Jarrett, R. D. Coarse-sediment distribution as evidence of an elevation limit for flash flooding, Bear Creek, Colorado. Geomorphology 14, 199-210 (1995). (Pubitemid 26444350)
10. Jarrett, R. D. & Tomlinson, E. M. Regional interdisciplinary paleoflood approach to assess extreme flood potential. Water Resour. Res. 36, 2957-2984 (2000).
11. Hansen, E. M., Fenn, D. D., Schreiner, L. C., Stodt, R. W.&Miller, J. F. Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates-United States between the Continental Divide and the 103rd Meridian Hydrometeorological Report No. 55A (National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, US Department of Commerce, 1988).
12. Rasmussen, R. M. & Heymsfield, A. J. Melting and shedding of graupel and hail: Part I. Model physics. J. Atmos. Sci. 44, 2754-2763 (1987).
13. Cifelli, R. et al. A new dual-polarization radar rainfall algorithm: Application in Colorado precipitation events. J. Atmos. Oceanic. Technol. 28, 352-364 (2011).
14. Willis, P. T. & Heymsfield, A. J. Structure of the melting layer in mesoscale convective system stratiform precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci. 46, 2008-2025 (1989).
15. Phillips, V. T. J., Pokrovsky, A. & Khain, A. The influence of time-dependent melting on the dynamics and precipitation production in maritime and continental storm clouds. J. Atmos. Sci. 64, 338-359 (2007). (Pubitemid 46351618)
16. Gilmore, M. S., Straka, J. M. & Rasmussen, E. N. Precipitation uncertainty due to variations in precipitation particle parameters within a simple microphysics scheme. Mon. Weather Rev. 132, 2610-2627 (2004). (Pubitemid 39622102)
17. Morrison, H. et al. WMO international cloud modeling workshop. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90, 1683-1686 (2009).
18. Morrison, H. & Milbrandt, J. Comparison of two-moment bulk microphysics schemes in idealized supercell thunderstorm simulations. Mon. Weather Rev. 139, 1103-1130 (2011).
19. Niall, S. & Walsh, K. The impact of climate change on hailstorms in southeastern Australia. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1933-1952 (2005). (Pubitemid 41694327)
20. Dessens, J. Severe convective weather in the context of nighttime global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 22, 1241-1244 (1995).
21. Willemse, S. A Statistical Analysis and Climatological Interpretation of Hailstorms in Switzerland Ph.D. thesis, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Doctor of Natural Science thesis dissertation No. 11137 (1995).
22. McMaster, H. The potential impact of global warming on hailstorm losses to winter cereal crops in NSW. Climatic Change 43, 455-479 (1999).
23. Xie, B., Zhang, Q. & Wang, Y. Trends in hail in China during 1960-2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L13801 (2008).
24. Mearns, L. O. et al. A regional climate change assessment program for North America. Eos 90, 311-312 (2009).
25. Skamarock, W. C. et al. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2 NCAR Tech. Note NCAR/TN-475+STR (2007).
26. 2 using a large ensemble of GCM simulations. Clim. Dynam. 26 (2006).
27. Marsh, P. T., Brooks, H. E. & Karoly, D. J. Preliminary investigation into the severe thunderstorm environment of Europe simulated by the Community Climate System Model 3. Atmos. Res. 93, 607-618 (2009).
28. Van Klooster, S. L. & Roebber, P. J. Surface-based convective potential in the contiguous United States in a business-as-usual future climate. J. Clim. 22, 3317-3330 (2009).
29. Xie, B. & Zhang, Q. Observed characteristics of hail size in four regions in China during 1980-2005. J. Clim. 23, 4973-4982 (2010).
30. Downton, M., Cullen, H., Morss, R., Wilhelmi, O. & Rajagopalan, B. Proc. 17th Conference on Hydrology, AMS Annual Meeting, Long Beach, CA (American Meteorological Society, 2003).
31. Mearns, L. O. et al. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program dataset (National Center for Atmospheric Research Earth System Grid data portal, 2007); data downloaded from http://www.earthsystemgrid. org/browse/viewProject.htm?projectId=ff3949c8-2008-45c8-8e27-5834f54be50f.
32. http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/about/timeslices.html.