Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: An application of DIVA

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 12, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 207-224

  Hinkel, Jochen ^a,b   Brown, Sally ^c   Exner, Lars ^a   Nicholls, Robert J ^c   Vafeidis, Athanasios T ^d   Kebede, Abiy S ^c  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b Research Process: Adaptation and Social Learning   (Germany)

^c UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHAMPTON   (United Kingdom)

^d UNIVERSITY OF KIEL   (Germany)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Africa; Climate change impacts; Mitigation; Sea level rise

Indexed keywords

EID: 84856961424     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-011-0249-2     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Appeaning Addo K, Walkden M, Mills JP (2008) Detection, measurement and prediction of shoreline recession in Accra, Ghana. J Photogramm Remote Sens 63: 543-558.
2. Becker M, Zerbini S, Baker T, Burki B, Galanis J, Garate J, Georgiev I, Kahle HG, Kotzev V, Lobazov V, Marson I, Negusini M, Richter B, Veis G, Yuzefovich P (2002) Assessment of height variations by GPS at Mediterranean and Black Sea coast tide gauges from the SELF project. Glob Planet Chang 34(1-2): 5-35.
3. Boko M, Niang I, Nyong A, Vogel C, Githeko A, Medany M, Osman-Elasha B, Tabo R, Yanda P (2007) Africa. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contributions of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 433-467.
4. Coleman JM, Huh OK, Braud D (2008) Wetland loss in world deltas. J Coast Res 24(1A): 1-14.
5. Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meinsner C, Wheeler D, Yan J (2009) The impacts of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. Clim Change 93(3-4): 379-388.
6. de la Vega-Leinert AC, Nicholls RJ, Nasser Hassan A, El-Raey M (2000) In: Proceedings of SURVAS expert workshop on: African vulnerability and adaptation to impacts of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR). National Authority on Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS), Egypt, 104 pp. http://www. survas. mdx. ac. uk.
7. Dennis KC, Niang-Diop I, Nicholls RJ (1995) Sea-level rise and Senegal: potential impacts and consequences. J Coast Res Special Issue 14: 243-261.
8. Desanker P, Magadza C, Allali A, Basalirwa C, Boko M, Dieudonne G, Downing TE, Dube PO, Githeko A, Githendu M, Gonzalez P, Gwary D, Jallow B, Nwafor J, Scholles R, Amani A, Bationo A, Buttefield R, Chafil R, Feddema J, Hilmi K, Mailu GM, Midgley G, Ngara T, Nicholson S, Olago D, Orlando B, Semazzi F, Unganai L, Washington R (2001) Africa. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Dokken DJ, White KS (2001) (eds) Climate change: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, contribution of working group II to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1032 pp.
9. DINAS-COAST Consortium (2006) DIVA 1. 5. 5. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, CD-ROM.
10. Earth Trends (2009) Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. 2007. World population prospects: the 2006 revision. Dataset on CD-ROM. United Nations, New York. Available online at http://www. un. org/esa/population/ordering. htm. Data downloaded from Earth Trends database http://earthtrends. wri. org/index. php. Accessed Oct 2010.
11. El Raey M, Nasr S, Frihy O, Desouki S, Dewidar K (1995) Potential impacts of accelerated sea-level rise on Alexandria Governorate, Egypt. J Coast Res Special Issue 14: 190-204.
12. Elasha BO, Medany M, Niang-Diop I, Nyong T, Tabo R, Vogel C (2006) Background paper on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Africa for the African workshop on adaptation implementation of decision 1/CP. 10 of the UNFCCC convention.
13. El-Raey M (1997) Vulnerability assessment of the coastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt to the impacts of sea level rise. Ocean Coast Manag 37(1): 29-40.
14. El-Raey M, Dewidar K, El Hattab M (1999) Adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise in Egypt. Clim Res 12: 117-128.
15. Ericson JP, Vörösmarty CJ, Dingman SL, Ward LG, Meybeck M (2006) Effective sea-level rise and deltas: causes of change and human dimension implications. Glob Planet Chang 50: 63-82.
16. French GT, Awosika LF, Ibe CE (1995) Sea-level rise and Nigeria: potential impacts and consequences. J Coast Res Special Issue 14: 224-242.
17. Frihy OE (2003) The Nile delta-Alexandria coast: vulnerability to sea-level rise, consequences and adaptation. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change 8(2): 115-138.
18. Garcia D, Vigo I, Chao BF, Martinez MC (2007) Vertical crustal motion along the Mediterranean and Black Sea coast derived from ocean altimetry and tide gauge data. Pure Appl Geophys 164(4): 851-863.
19. Hinkel J (2010) Integrated assessment of coastal vulnerability of Senegal and Gambia with the DIVA model. European Climate Forum. Unpublished Report submitted to the World Bank.
20. Hinkel J, Klein RJT (2009) The DINAS-COAST project: developing a tool for the dynamic and interactive assessment of coastal vulnerability. Glob Environ Change 19(3): 384-395.
21. Hinkel et al A global analysis of coastal erosion of beaches due to sea-level rise. An application of DIVA, in preparation.
22. Hoozemans FJ, Marchand M, Pennekamp H (1993) Sea level rise: a global vulnerability assessment: vulnerability assessments for population, coastal wetlands and rice production on a global scale. Delft Hydraulics and Rijkswaterstaat, Delft and The Hague, revised edn.
23. Ibe AC, Awosika LF (1991) Sea level rise impact on African coastal zones. In: Omide SH, Juma C (eds) A change in the weather: African perspectives on climate change. African Centre for Technology Studies, Nairobi, pp 105-112.
24. IPCC CZMS (1990) Strategies for adaptation to sea level rise. Report of the Coastal Zone Management Subgroup, Response Strategies Working Group of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Tech. rep., Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, The Hague.
25. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 976 pp.
26. Jallow BP, Barrow MKA, Leatherman SP (1996) Vulnerability of the coastal zone of The Gambia to sea level rise and development of response strategies and adaptation options. Clim Res 6: 165-177.
27. Jallow BP, Toure S, Barrow MMK, Mathieu AA (1999) Coastal zone of The Gambia and the Abidjan region in Cote d'Ivoire: sea level rise vulnerability, response strategies, and adaptation options. Clim Res 12: 129-136.
28. Kebede AS, Nicholls RJ (2011) Exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: population and asset exposure to coastal flooding in Dar es Salaam. Regional Environmental Change, forthcoming.
29. Kebede AS, Nicholls RJ, Hanson S, Mokrech M (2011) Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise: a preliminary case study of Mombasa. J Coast Res, in press.
30. Kok M, Jonkman B, Kanning W, Rijcken T, Stijnen J (2008) Deltacommissie: Toekomst voor het Nederlandse polderconcept. Technische en financiele houdbaarheid. Tech. Rep., Deltacommissie.
31. McGranahan G, Balk D, Anderson B (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environ Urban 19(1): 17-37.
32. Meehl GA et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tiger M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contributions of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
33. Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper SCB, Frieler K, Knutti R, Frame DJ, Allen MR (2009) Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2C. Nature 458(7242): 1158.
34. Menendez M, Woodworth PL (2010) Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge dataset. J Geophys Res, under review.
35. Milliman JD, Rutkowski C, Maybeck M (1995) River discharge to the sea: a global river index (GLORI). LOICZ Reports and Studies, LOICZ Core Project Office, Texel, Netherland Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), 125 pp.
36. Mitrovica JX, Tamisiea ME, Davis JL, Milne GA (2001) Recent mass balance of polar ice sheets inferred from patterns of global sea-level change. Nature 409(6823): 1026-1029.
37. Nicholls RJ (1995) Coastal megacities and climate change. Geo J 37(3): 369-379.
38. Nicholls RJ (2004) Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob Environ Change 14(1): 69-86.
39. Nicholls RJ (2006) Storm surges in coastal areas. In: Arnold M, Chen RS, Deichmann U, Dilley M, Lerner-Lam AL, Pullen RE, Trohanis Z (eds) Natural disaster hotspots, case studies. The World Bank Hazard Management Unit, Disaster Risk Management Series No. 6, Washington, D. C., The World Bank, pp 79-108.
40. Nicholls RJ (2010) Impacts of and responses to sea-level rise. In: Church JA, Woodworth PL, Aarup T, Wilson S (eds) Understanding sea-level rise and variability. Wiley, Chichester, pp 17-51.
41. Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans F, Marchand M (1999) Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses. Glob Environ Change 9: 69-87.
42. Nicholls RJ, Hanson S, Herweijer C, Patmore N, Hallegatte S, Corfee-Morlot J, Chateau J, Muir-Wood R (2008) Ranking port cities with high exposure and vulnerability to climate extremes: exposure estimates. OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 1, OECD publishing. doi: 10. 1787/011766488208.
43. Nicholls RJ, Brown S, Hanson S, Hinkel J (2010b) Economics of coastal zone adaptation to climate change. Discussion Paper No. 10. Washington DC, The World Bank.
44. Nyong A (2005) Impacts of climate change in the tropics: the African experience. http://www. stabilisation2005. com/Tony_Nyong. pdf.
45. Parry M, Arnell N, Berry P, Dodman D, Fankhauser S, Hope C, Kovats S, Nicholls R, Satterthwaite D, Tiffin R, Wheeler T (2009) Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates. International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, London, p 111.
46. Peltier W (2000a) Global glacial isostatic adjustment and modern instrumental records of relative sea level history. Sea Level Rise Hist Consequences 75: 65-95.
47. Peltier W (2000b) Global glacial isostatic adjustment and modern instrumental records of relative sea level history. In: Douglas BC, Kearny MS, Leatherman SP (eds) Sea level rise; history and consequences. Academic Press, San Diego, pp 65-95.
48. PSMSL (2007) PSMSL tide gauges viewed with Google Earth. http://www. pol. ac. uk/psmsl/google/index. html. Accessed Dec 2009.
49. Rahmstorf S (2007) A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise. Science 315: 368-370.
50. Schuijt K (2002) Land and water use of wetlands in Africa: economic values of African wetlands. Interim report IR-02-063. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 40 pp. http://www. iiasa. ac. at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-02-063. pdf. Accessed Dec 2009.
51. Singh A, Dieye A, Finco M, Chenoweth MS, Fosnight EA, Allotey A (1999) Early warning of selected emerging environmental issues in Africa: change and correlation from a geographic perspective. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi.
52. Small C, Nicholls RJ (2003) A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones. J Coast Res 19(3): 584-599.
53. Smedema L, Vlotman W, Rycroft D (2004) Modern land drainage. Planning, design and management of agriculture drainage systems. Taylor and Francis, Leiden.
54. Snoussi M, Ouchani T, Khouakhi A, Niang-Doip I (2009) Impacts of sea-level rise on the Moroccan coastal zone: quantifying coastal erosion and flooding in the Tangier Bay. Geomorphology 107(1-2): 32-40.
55. Stanley DJ, Warne AG (1993) Nile Delta: recent geological evolution and human impact. Science 260: 628-634.
56. Syvitski JPM, Kettner AJ, Overeem I, Hutton EWH, Hannon MT, Brakenridge GR, Day J, Vörösmarty C, Saito Y, Giosan L, Nicholls RJ (2009) Sinking deltas due to human activities. Nat Geosci 2. doi: 10. 1038/NGEO629.
57. Tol RSJ (2006) The DIVA model: socio-economic scenarios, impacts and adaptation and world heritage. DINAS-COAST consortium, 2006. Diva 1. 5. 5. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, CD-ROM.
58. Tol RSJ et al Flooding and sea level rise: an application of DIVA, in preparation.
59. Tsimplis MN, Baker TF (2000) Sea level drop in the Mediterranean Sea: an indicator of deep water salinity and temperature changes? Geophys Res Lett 27(12): 1731-1734.
60. UNCTAD (1985) Port development. A handbook for planners in developing countries, 2nd edn. United Nations, New York.
61. UN-HABITAT (2008) State of the world's cities 2008/2009-harmonious cities. UN-HABITAT (United Nations Human Settlement Programme), Nairobi. Available from: http://www. unhabitat. org/pmss/getPage. asp?page=bookView&book=2562. Accessed Aug 2009.
62. Vafeidis AT, Boot G, Cox J, Maatens R, McFadden L, Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ (2005) The DIVA Database Documentation. Technical report.
63. Vafeidis AT, Nicholls RJ, McFadden L, Tol RSJ, Hinkel J, Spencer T, Grashoff PS, Boot G, Klein R (2008) A new global coastal database for impact and vulnerability analysis to sea-level rise. J Coast Res 24(4): 917-924.
64. van Vuuren DP, Den Elzen MGJ, Lucas PL, Eickhout B, Strengers BJ, van Ruijven B, Wonink S, van Houdt R (2007) Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs. Clim Change 81: 119-159.
65. van Vuuren DP, Isaac M, Kundzewicz ZW, Arnell N, Barker T, Criqui P, Bauer N, Berkhout F, Hilderink H, Hinkel J, Hof A, Kitous A, Kram T, Mechler R, Scrieciu S (2009) Scenarios as the basis for assessment of mitigation and adaptation. In: Hulme M, Neufeldt H (eds) Making climate change work for US: European perspectives on adaptation and mitigation strategies. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 54-86.
66. Verhagen H (1998) Hydraulic boundary conditions. In: Pilarczyk K (ed) Dikes and revetments: design, maintenance and safety assessment. Balkema, Rotterdam.
67. Vörösmarty CJ, Fekete BM, Meybeck M, Lammers RB (2000) Global system of rivers: its role in organising continental land mass defining land-to-ocean linkages. Glob Biogeochem Cycles 14(2): 599-621.
68. Woodworth PL, Blackman DL (2004) Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970 s. J Clim 17(6): 1190-1197.
69. Woodworth PL, Aman A, Aarup T (2007) Sea level monitoring in Africa. Afr J Mar Sci 29(3): 321-330.
70. Zhang K, Douglas BC, Leatherman SP (2000) Twentieth century storm activity along the U. S. East Coast. J Clim 13: 1748-1761.
71. Zinyowera MC, Jallow BP, Maya RS, Okoth-Ogendo HWO, Awosika LF, Diop ES, Downing TE, El-Raey M, Le Sueur D, Magadza CHD, Toure S, Vogel C, Edroma EL, Joubert A, Marume W, Unganai SL, Yates D (1998) Africa. In: Watson RT, Zinyowera MC, Moss RH (eds) The regional impacts of climate change: an assessment of vulnerability, a special report of IPCC working group II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 517 pp.