Uncovering, collecting, and analyzing records to investigate the ecological impacts of climate change: A template from Thoreau's Concord

BioScience

Volumn 62, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 170-181

  Primack, Richard B ^a   Miller Rushing, Abraham J ^b  

^a Boston University   (United States)

^b Acadia National Park   (United States)

Author keywords

climate change; Concord; Henry David Thoreau; historical data; Massachusetts; phenology

Indexed keywords

EID: 84856938998     PISSN: 00063568     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1525/bio.2012.62.2.10     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Aono Y, Kazui K. 2008. Phenological data series of cherry tree flowering in Kyoto, Japan, and its application to reconstruction of springtime temperatures since the 9th century. International Journal of Climatology 28: 905-914. (Pubitemid 351965672)
2. Arnfield AJ. 2003. Two decades of urban climate research: A review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island. International Journal of Climatology 23: 1-26. (Pubitemid 36196164)
3. Bartomeus I, Ascher JS, Wagner D, Danforth BN, Colla S, Kombluth S, Winfree R. 2011. Climate-associated phenological advances in bee pollinators and bee-pollinated plants. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108: 20645-20649.
4. Both C, Bouwhuis S, Lessells CM, Visser ME. 2006. Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature 441: 81-83.
5. Bradley NL, Leopold AC, Ross J, Huffaker W. 1999. Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 96: 9701-9704. (Pubitemid 29398795)
6. Butler CJ. 2003. The disproportionate effect of global warming on the arrival dates of short-distance migratory birds in North America. Ibis 145: 484-495. (Pubitemid 36914644)
7. Chen X. 2003. East Asia. Pages 11-25 in Schwartz MD, ed. Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science. Kluwer.
8. Cleland EE, Chuine I, Menzel A, Mooney HA, Schwartz MD. 2007. Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22: 357-365. (Pubitemid 46920548)
9. Crimmins TM, Crimmins MA, Bertelsen CD. 2010. Complex responses to climate drivers in onset of spring flowering across a semi-arid elevation gradient. Journal of Ecology 98: 1042-1051.
10. Davis CC, Willis CG, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ. 2010. The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 365: 3201-3213.
11. Ellwood ER, Primack RB, Talmadge ML. 2010. Effects of climate change on spring arrival times of birds in Thoreau's Concord from 1851 to 2007. The Condor 112: 754-762.
12. Griscom L. 1949. The Birds of Concord. Harvard University Press.
13. Griscom L, Snyder DE. 1955. The Birds of Massachusetts: An Annotated and Revised Checklist. Peabody Museum.
14. Hachiya M, Osborne M, Stinson C, Werner BG. 2007. Human eastern equine encephalitis in Massachusetts: Predictive indicators from mosquitoes collected at 10 long-term trap sites, 1979-2004. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 76: 285-292. (Pubitemid 351627775)
15. Hayhoe K, et al. 2007. Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast. Climate Dynamics 28: 381-407. (Pubitemid 46111899)
16. Hopkins A. 1918. Periodical events and natural law as guides to agricultural research and practice. Monthly Weather Review (suppl.) 9: 1-42.
17. Ibáñez I, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Ellwood E, Higuchi H, Lee SD, Kobori H, Silander JA. 2010. Forecasting phenology under global warming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 365: 3247-3260.
18. Johnson KG, et al. 2011. Climate change and biosphere response: Unlocking the collections vault. BioScience 61: 147-153.
19. Lavoie C, Lachance D. 2006. A new herbarium-based method for reconstructing the phenology of plant species across large areas. American Journal of Botany 93: 512-516.
20. Ledneva A, Miller-Rushing AJ, Primack RB, Imbres C. 2004. Climate change as reflected in a naturalist's diary, Middleborough, Massachusetts. Wilson Bulletin 116: 224-231. (Pubitemid 39651382)
21. Leiserowitz A, Maibach E, Roser-Renouf C. 2010. Climate change in the American mind: American's global warming beliefs and attitudes in January 2010. Yale and George Mason University. Yale Project on Climate Change.
22. MacGillivray F, Hudson IL, Lowe AJ. 2010. Herbarium collections and photographic images: Alternative data sources for phenological research. Pages 425-461 in Hudson IL, Keatley MR, eds. Phenological Research: Methods for Environmental and Climate Change Analysis. Springer.
23. Marra PP, Francis CM, Mulvihill RS, Moore FR. 2005. The influence of climate on the timing and rate of spring bird migration. Oecologia 142: 307-315. (Pubitemid 40171996)
24. Memmott J, Craze PG, Waser NM, Price MV. 2007. Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions. Ecology Letters 10: 710-717. (Pubitemid 46998298)
25. Menzel A. 2003. Europe. Pages 45-56 in Schwartz MD, ed. Phenology: An Integrative Environmental Science. Kluwer.
26. Miller-Rushing AJ, Primack RB. 2008. Global warming and flowering times in Thoreau's Concord: A community perspective. Ecology 89: 332-341. (Pubitemid 351550031)
27. Miller-Rushing AJ, Primack RB, Primack D, Mukunda S. 2006. Photographs and herbarium specimens as tools to document phenological changes in response to global warming. American Journal of Botany 93: 1667-1674. (Pubitemid 44790671)
28. Miller-Rushing AJ, Lloyd-Evans TL, Primack RB, Satzinger P. 2008a. Bird migration times, climate change, and changing population sizes. Global Change Biology 14: 1959-1972.
29. Miller-Rushing AJ, Inouye DW, Primack RB. 2008b. How well do first flowering dates measure plant responses to climate change? The effects of population size and sampling frequency. Journal of Ecology 96: 1289-1296.
30. Miller-Rushing AJ, Primack RB, Stymeist R. 2008c. Interpreting variation in bird migration times as observed by volunteers. The Auk 125: 565-573.
31. Mills AM. 2005. Changes in the timing of spring and autumn migration in North American migrant passerines during a period of global warming. Ibis 147: 259-269. (Pubitemid 40534715)
32. Møller AP, Rubolini D, Lehikoinen E. 2008. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 16195-16200.
33. Morisette JT, et al. 2009. Tracking the rhythm of the seasons in the face of global change: Phenological research in the 21st century. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 7: 253-260.
34. Moritz C, Patton JL, Conroy CJ, Parra JL, White GC, Beissinger SR. 2008. Impact of a century of climate change on small-mammal communities in Yosemite National Park, USA. Science 322: 261-264.
35. Moussus J-P, Julliard R, Jiguet F. 2010. Featuring 10 phenological estimators using simulated data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 1: 140-150.
36. National Assessment Synthesis Team. 2001. Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. US Global Change Research Program.
37. Parmesan C, Yohe G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42. (Pubitemid 36077078)
38. Parmesan C, et al. 1999. Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature 399: 579-583.
39. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE, eds. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
40. Primack D, Imbres C, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Del Tredici P. 2004. Herbarium specimens demonstrate earlier flowering times in response to warming in Boston. American Journal of Botany 91: 1260-1264. (Pubitemid 43175047)
41. Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Dharaneeswaran K. 2009a. Changes in the flora of Thoreau's Concord. Biological Conservation 142: 500-508.
42. Primack RB, Higuchi H, Miller-Rushing AJ. 2009b. The impact of climate change on cherry trees and other species in Japan. Biological Conservation 142: 1943-1949.
43. Rafferty NE, Ives AR. 2011. Effects of experimental shifts in flowering phenology on plant-pollinator interactions. Ecology Letters 14: 69-74.
44. Robbirt KM, Davy AJ, Hutchings MJ, Roberts DL. 2011. Validation of biological collections as a source of phenological data for use in climate change studies: A case study with the orchid Ophrys sphegodes. Journal of Ecology 99: 235-241.
45. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, Rosenzweig C, Pounds JA. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60. (Pubitemid 36077083)
46. Sola AJ, Ehrlén J. 2007. Vegetative phenology constrains the onset of flowering in the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus. Journal of Ecology 95: 208-216. (Pubitemid 44952310)
47. Sparks TH. 2007. Lateral thinking on data to identify climate impacts. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 22: 169-171. (Pubitemid 46427953)
48. Sparks TH, Carey PD. 1995. The responses of species to climate over two centuries: An analysis of the Marsham phenological record, 1736-1947. Journal of Ecology 83: 321-329.
49. Stefanescu C, Peñuelas J, Filella I. 2003. Effects of climatic change on the phenology of butterflies in the northwest Mediterranean Basin. Global Change Biology 9: 1494-1506. (Pubitemid 37353918)
50. Tingley MW, Beissinger SR. 2009. Detecting range shifts from historical species occurrences: New perspectives on old data. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 24: 625-633.
51. Tingley MW, Monahan WB, Beissinger SR, Moritz C. 2009. Birds track their Grinnellian niche through a century of climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 19637-19643.
52. Visser ME, Both C. 2005. Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: The need for a yardstick. Proceedings of the Royal Society B 272: 2561-2569. (Pubitemid 41796558)
53. Willis CG, Ruhfel B, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Davis CC. 2008. Phylogenetic patterns of species loss in Thoreau's woods are driven by climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: 17029-17033.
54. -. 2009. Reply to McDonald et al.: Climate change, not deer herbivory, has shaped species decline in Concord, Massachusetts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: E29.
55. Willis CG, Ruhfel BR, Primack RB, Miller-Rushing AJ, Losos JB, Davis CC. 2010. Favorable climate change response explains non-native species' success in Thoreau's woods. PLoS ONE 5: e8878.
56. Woodward FI. 1987. Stomatal numbers are sensitive to increases in CO2 from pre-industrial levels. Nature 327: 617-618.
57. Xu CY, Griffin KL, Schuster WS. 2007. Leaf phenology and seasonal variation of photosynthesis of invasive Berberis thunbergii (Japanese barberry) and two co-occurring native understory shrubs in a northeastern United States deciduous forest. Oecologia 154: 11-21. (Pubitemid 47583393)