Forecasting plant community impacts of climate variability and change: When do competitive interactions matter?

Journal of Ecology

Volumn 100, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 478-487

  Adler, Peter B ^a   Dalgleish, Harmony J ^b   Ellner, Stephen P ^c  

^a UTAH STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b PURDUE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c Department of Obstetrics Gynecology   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Community ecology; Competition; Demography; Integral projection model; Niche; Plant population and community dynamics; Sagebrush steppe

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE VARIATION; COMMUNITY DYNAMICS; COMMUNITY ECOLOGY; DEMOGRAPHY; DOMINANCE; FORECASTING METHOD; GROWTH RATE; HYPOTHESIS TESTING; INTERSPECIFIC COMPETITION; NICHE; PARAMETERIZATION; PLANT COMMUNITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; SHRUB; STEPPE; TROPHIC STRUCTURE;

ARTEMISIA TRIDENTATA;

EID: 84856923236     PISSN: 00220477     EISSN: 13652745     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01930.x     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. Adler, P.B., Ellner, S.P. & Levine, J.M. (2010) Coexistence of perennial plants: an embarrassment of niches. Ecology Letters, 13, 1019-1029.
2. Adler, P.B., HilleRisLambers, J. & Levine, J.M. (2007) A niche for neutrality. Ecology Letters, 10, 95-104.
3. Adler, P.B., Leiker, J. & Levine, J.M. (2009) Direct and indirect effects of climate change on a prairie plant community. PLoS One, 4, e6887.
4. Allen, M.F., Allen, E.B. & West, N.E. (1987) Influence of parasitic and mutualistic fungi on artemisia tridentata during high precipitation years. Bulletin of the Torrey Botanical Club, 114, 272-279.
5. Andrewartha, H.G. & Birch, L.C. (1954) The Distribution and Abundance of Animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
6. Berlow, E.L., Dunne, J.A., Martinez, N.D., Stark, P.B., Williams, R.J. & Brose, U. (2009) Simple prediction of interaction strengths in complex food webs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 187-191.
7. Blaisdell, J.P. (1958) Seasonal Development and Yield of Native Plants on the Upper Snake River Plains and Their Relation to Certain Climatic Factors. USDA, Washington, DC.
8. Brooker, R.W. (2006) Plant-plant interactions and environmental change. New Phytologist, 171, 271-284.
9. Carpenter, S. (2002) Ecological futures: building an ecology of the long now. Ecology, 83, 2069-2083.
10. Chesson, P. (2000) Mechanisms of maintenance of species diversity. Annual Review of Ecology & Systematics, 31, 343-366.
11. Christensen, J.H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I. et al. (2007) Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H.L. Miller ), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
12. Christensen, J.H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R.K., Kwon, W.-T., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C.G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A., & Whetton, P. (2007) Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H.L. Miller ), pp. 847-940. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.
13. Clark, J., Carpenter, S., Barber, M., Collins, S., Dobson, A., Foley, J. et al. (2001) Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science, 293, 657-660.
14. Comita, L.S., Muller-Landau, H.C., Aguilar, S. & Hubbell, S.P. (2010) Asymmetric density dependence shapes species abundances in a tropical tree community. Science, 329, 330-332.
15. Connell, J.H. (1971) On the role of natural enemies in preventing competitive exclusion in some marine animals and in rain forest trees. Dynamics of Populations (eds P.J. Den Boer & G.R. Gradwell ), pp. 298-312. PUDOC, Wageningen.
16. Dalgleish, H.J., Koons, D.N., Hooten, M.B., Moffet, C.A. & Adler, P.B. (2011) Climate influences the demography of three dominant sagebrush steppe plants. Ecology, 92, 75-85.
17. Easterling, M.R., Ellner, S.P. & Dixon, P.M. (2000) Size-specific sensitivity: applying a new structured population model. Ecology, 81, 694-708.
18. Ellner, S.P. & Rees, M. (2006) Integral projection models for species with complex demography. American Naturalist, 167, 410-428.
19. Ellner, S.P. & Rees, M. (2007) Stochastic stable population growth in integral projection models: theory and application. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 54, 227-256.
20. Freckleton, R.P. & Watkinson, A.R. (2001) Predicting competition coefficients for plant mixtures: reciprocity, transitivity and correlations with life-history traits. Ecology Letters, 4, 348-357.
21. Gilman, S.E., Urban, M.C., Tewksbury, J., Gilchrist, G.W. & Holt, R.D. (2010) A framework for community interactions under climate change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 25, 325-331.
22. Greenlee, J.T. & Callaway, R.M. (1996) Abiotic stress and the relative importance of interference and facilitation in montane bunchgrass communities in western Montana. The American Naturalist, 148, 386-396.
23. Harpole, W. & Suding, K. (2007) Frequency-dependence stabilizes competitive interactions among four annual plants. Ecology Letters, 10, 1164-1169.
24. Hess, W.M., Nelson, D.L. & Sturges, D.L. (1985) Morphology and ultrastructure of a snowmold fungus on sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata). Mycologia, 77, 637-645.
25. Janzen, D.H. (1970) Herbivores and the number of tree species in tropical forests. The American Naturalist, 104, 501-528.
26. Klanderud, K. (2005) Climate change effects on species interactions in an alpine plant community. Journal of Ecology, 93, 127-137.
27. Klironomos, J.N. (2002) Feedback with soil biota contributes to plant rarity and invasiveness in communities. Nature, 417, 67-71.
28. Kulmatiski, A., Beard, K.H., Stevens, J.R. & Cobbold, S.M. (2008) Plant-soil feedbacks: a meta-analytical review. Ecology Letters, 11, 980-992.
29. Lauenroth, W.K. & Adler, P.B. (2008) Demography of perennial grassland plants: survival, life expectancy and life span. Journal of Ecology, 96, 1023-1032.
30. Levine, J.M., Adler, P.B. & HilleRisLambers, J. (2008) On testing the role of niche differences in stabilizing coexistence. Functional Ecology, 22, 934-936.
31. Levine, J.M. & HilleRisLambers, J. (2009) The importance of niches for the maintenance of species diversity. Nature, 461, 254-257.
32. Levine, J., McEachern, A. & Cowan, C. (2010) Do competitors modulate rare plant response to precipitation change? Ecology, 91, 130-140.
33. Lunn, D.J., Thomas, A., Best, N. & Spiegelhalter, D. (2000) WinBUGS - A Bayesian modelling framework: concepts, structure, and extensibility. Statistics and Computing, 10, 325-337.
34. Mangan, S.A., Schnitzer, S.A., Herre, E.A., Mack, K.M.L., Valencia, M.C., Sanchez, E.I. & Bever, J.D. (2010) Negative plant-soil feedback predicts tree-species relative abundance in a tropical forest. Nature, 466, 752-755.
35. McKane, R.B., Johnson, L.C., Shaver, G.S., Nadelhoffer, K.J., Rastetter, E.B., Fry, B., Giblin, A.E., Kieland, K., Kwiatkowski, B.L., Laundre, J.A. & Murray, G. (2002) Resource-based niches provide a basis for plant species diversity and dominance in arctic tundra. Nature, 415, 68-71.
36. Murdoch, W.W., Kendall, B.E., Nisbet, R.M., Briggs, C.J., McCauley, E. & Bolser, R. (2002) Single-species models for many-species food webs. Nature, 417, 541-543.
37. Nicholson, A.J. (1954) An outline of the dynamics of animal populations. Australian Journal of Zoology, 2, 9-65.
38. Nicholson, E. & Possingham, H.P. (2006) Objectives for multiple-species conservation planning. Conservation Biology, 20, 871-881.
39. Saccone, P., Delzon, S., Pages, J., Brun, J. & Michalet, R. (2009) The role of biotic interactions in altering tree seedling responses to an extreme climatic event. Journal of Vegetation Science, 20, 403-414.
40. Siepielski, A.M. & McPeek, M.A. (2010) On the evidence for species coexistence: a critique of the coexistence program. Ecology, 91, 3153-3164.
41. Silvertown, J., Dodd, M., Gowing, D. & Mountford, J. (1999) Hydrologically defined niches reveal a basis for species richness in plant communities. Nature, 400, 61-63.
42. Suttle, K., Thomsen, M. & Power, M. (2007) Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate. Science, 315, 640-642.
43. Tielborger, K. & Kadmon, R. (2000) Temporal environmental variation tips the balance between facilitation and interference in desert plants. Ecology, 81, 1544-1553.
44. Tilman, D. (1982) Resource Competition and Community Structure. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
45. Tylianakis, J., Didham, R., Bascompte, J. & Wardle, D. (2008) Global change and species interactions in terrestrial ecosystems. Ecology Letters, 11, 1351-1363.
46. Whittaker, R.H., Levin, S.A. & Root, R.B. (1973) Niche, habitat, and ecotope. American Naturalist, 107, 321-338.
47. Wood, S.A., Lilley, S.A., Schiel, D.R. & Shurin, J.B. (2010) Organismal traits are more important than environment for species interactions in the intertidal zone. Ecology Letters, 13, 1160-1171.
48. Wootton, J. (1994) The nature and consequences of indirect effects in ecological communities. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 25, 443-466.
49. Zachmann, L., Moffet, C. & Adler, P.B. (2010) Mapped quadrats in sagebrush steppe: long-term data for analysing demographic rates and plant-plant interactions. Ecology, 91, 3427.