메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 37, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 25-39

Passenger Car Ownership Estimation toward 2030 in Japan: BAU Scenario with Socio-economic Factors

Author keywords

Demographic Trends; Japan; Model Construction and Estimation; Passenger Car Ownership; Time Series Models

Indexed keywords


EID: 84856910941     PISSN: 02876256     EISSN: 18806465     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2457/srs.37.25     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (7)

References (44)
  • 1
    • 85024448849 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • BP
    • June http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview
    • BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2005 http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview.
    • (2005) Statistical Review of World Energy
  • 3
    • 0003111860 scopus 로고
    • Modelling Vehicle Ownership and Use in Low Income Countries
    • Button, K., Ngoe, N., and Hine, J., Modelling Vehicle Ownership and Use in Low Income Countries, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, XXVII (1), 1993, pp. 51-67.
    • (1993) Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , vol.27 , Issue.1 , pp. 51-67
    • Button, K.1    Ngoe, N.2    Hine, J.3
  • 4
    • 85024440739 scopus 로고
    • Traffic Trends
    • Harmondsworth: Road Research Laboratory, RN/3174
    • Chandler, K.N., “Traffic Trends,” Research Note, Harmondsworth: Road Research Laboratory, RN/3174, 1958.
    • (1958) Research Note
    • Chandler, K.N.1
  • 5
    • 85024455350 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling Global Vehicle Ownership
    • Paper number 4124
    • Dargay, J., and Gately, D., “Modelling Global Vehicle Ownership,” Paper number 4124.
    • Dargay, J.1    Gately, D.2
  • 6
    • 0034786595 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recent Evidence on Car Cost and Time Elasticities of Travel Demand in Europe
    • De Jong, G., and Gunn, H., “Recent Evidence on Car Cost and Time Elasticities of Travel Demand in Europe,” Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, Volume 35, Part 2, 2001, pp. 127-160.
    • (2001) Journal of Transport Economics and Policy , vol.35 , pp. 127-160
    • De Jong, G.1    Gunn, H.2
  • 7
    • 85024441887 scopus 로고
    • London: Department of Energy
    • Department of Energy, Enery Policy Review, London: Department of Energy, 1977.
    • (1977) Enery Policy Review
  • 8
    • 85024456648 scopus 로고
    • The Demand for Gasoline: Future Evidence
    • Drollas, L., “The Demand for Gasoline: Future Evidence,” Enery Economics, Vol. 6, 1984, pp. 7182.
    • (1984) Enery Economics , vol.6 , pp. 7182
    • Drollas, L.1
  • 10
    • 0009646059 scopus 로고
    • Demand for Gasoline in Kuwait: an Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration Techniques
    • Eltony, M., and Al-Mutairi, N., “Demand for Gasoline in Kuwait: an Empirical Analysis Using Cointegration Techniques,” Energy Economics, 27, 1993, pp. 193-208.
    • (1993) Energy Economics , vol.27 , pp. 193-208
    • Eltony, M.1    Al-Mutairi, N.2
  • 11
    • 0003902895 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Washington D.C.: Department of Energy www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
    • Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Outlook, Washington D.C.: Department of Energy, 2002 and 2004. www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.
    • (2002) International Energy Outlook
  • 12
    • 28644446126 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Washington D.C.: Department of Energy
    • Energy Information Administration (EIA), International Energy Outlook, Washington D.C.: Department of Energy, 2005, p. 103.
    • (2005) International Energy Outlook , pp. 103
  • 13
    • 0032100870 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gasoline Demand Revised: an International Meta-Analysis of Elasticities
    • Espey, M., “Gasoline Demand Revised: an International Meta-Analysis of Elasticities,” Energy Economics, Vol. 20, 1998, pp. 273-295.
    • (1998) Energy Economics , vol.20 , pp. 273-295
    • Espey, M.1
  • 18
    • 85024444341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inc. (JAMA) July
    • Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc. (JAMA), JAMA Report, No. 89, July 2001. p. 1.
    • (2001) JAMA Report , Issue.89 , pp. 1
  • 19
    • 85024463661 scopus 로고
    • Inc. (JAMA) of Japan okyo, JAMA
    • Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc. (JAMA), Motor Industry of Japan, 1990-2004. okyo, JAMA.
    • (1990) Motor Industry
  • 20
    • 0031404996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measuring the Long-run Fuel Demand of Cars: Separate Estimations of Vehicle Stock, Mean Fuel Intensity, and Mean Annual Driving Distance
    • Johansson, O., and Schipper, L., “Measuring the Long-run Fuel Demand of Cars: Separate Estimations of Vehicle Stock, Mean Fuel Intensity, and Mean Annual Driving Distance,” Journal of Trrnsport Economics and Policy, Vol. 31, 1997, pp. 277-292.
    • (1997) Journal of Trrnsport Economics and Policy , vol.31 , pp. 277-292
    • Johansson, O.1    Schipper, L.2
  • 21
    • 85024462023 scopus 로고
    • Mobility and the Individual in Western Industrial Society
    • L. Lundqvist, K. Button and P. Nijkamp (Eds.) U.K., Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
    • Jones, P.M., “Mobility and the Individual in Western Industrial Society,” In: L. Lundqvist, K. Button and P. Nijkamp (Eds.), The Automobile, U.K., Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 1987, pp. 157-174.
    • (1987) The Automobile , pp. 157-174
    • Jones, P.M.1
  • 22
    • 85024452598 scopus 로고
    • Passenger Car Estimation and Forecast in Japan(in Japanese)
    • Hidano, N. and Kashima, S., “Passenger Car Estimation and Forecast in Japan(in Japanese),” Highway and Vehicle, Vol. 28, No. 1, 1985, pp. 37-47.
    • (1985) Highway and Vehicle , vol.28 , Issue.1 , pp. 37-47
    • Hidano, N.1    Kashima, S.2
  • 23
    • 85024454846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • JARI Passenger car ownership Model (in Japanese)
    • Tsukuba: Japan Automobile Research Institute Feb.
    • Hirota, K., and Minato, K., “JARI Passenger car ownership Model (in Japanese),” JARI Research, Tsukuba: Japan Automobile Research Institute, Vol. 27, No. 2, Feb. 2005, pp. 21-24.
    • (2005) JARI Research , vol.27 , Issue.2 , pp. 21-24
    • Hirota, K.1    Minato, K.2
  • 24
    • 85020162669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taxes and the Environmental Impact of Private Car Use: Evidence from 68 Cities
    • A. Reggiani and L. Schintler (Eds.) Berlin: Springer Verlag
    • Hirota, K., and Poot, J., “Taxes and the Environmental Impact of Private Car Use: Evidence from 68 Cities,” In: A. Reggiani and L. Schintler (Eds.), Methods and Models in Transport and Telecommunications: Cross-Atlantic Perspectives, Berlin: Springer Verlag, 2005, pp. 299-317.
    • (2005) Methods and Models in Transport and Telecommunications: Cross-Atlantic Perspectives , pp. 299-317
    • Hirota, K.1    Poot, J.2
  • 25
    • 85024471342 scopus 로고
    • Quasi-engle Curves, Difusion, and the Ownership of Major Consumer Durables
    • Holger, B., “Quasi-engle Curves, Difusion, and the Ownership of Major Consumer Durables,” Journal of Political Economy, 1970.
    • (1970) Journal of Political Economy
    • Holger, B.1
  • 26
    • 0012980210 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Determinants of Motorization and Road Provision
    • Gomez-Ibanez, J., Tye, W.B., and C. Winston(Eds.) Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution
    • Ingram, G.K., and Liu, Z., “Determinants of Motorization and Road Provision,” In: Gomez-Ibanez, J., Tye, W.B., and C. Winston(Eds.), Essays in Transportation Economics and Policy, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1999, pp. 359-397.
    • (1999) Essays in Transportation Economics and Policy , pp. 359-397
    • Ingram, G.K.1    Liu, Z.2
  • 27
    • 84856829892 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Japanese), Tokyo: Sophia University Socio-Economic Research Institute
    • Okamoto, T., Miyashita, T., Ohsawa, Y., and Nakamura, M., Car Demand Forecast (in Japanese), Tokyo: Sophia University Socio-Economic Research Institute, pp. 147-151.
    • Car Demand Forecast , pp. 147-151
    • Okamoto, T.1    Miyashita, T.2    Ohsawa, Y.3    Nakamura, M.4
  • 28
    • 84874063797 scopus 로고
    • The Relationship between the National Income and Vehicle Registrations
    • Harmondsworth: Road Research Laboratory, RN/1631
    • Rudd, E., “The Relationship between the National Income and Vehicle Registrations,” Research Note, Harmondsworth: Road Research Laboratory, 1951, RN/1631.
    • (1951) Research Note
    • Rudd, E.1
  • 29
    • 85024444129 scopus 로고
    • Likely Increases of Road Traffic in Great Britain
    • Harmondsworth: Road Research Laboratory, RN/1518
    • Smeed, R.J., “Likely Increases of Road Traffic in Great Britain.” Research Note, Harmondsworth: Road Research Laboratory, RN/1518, 1951.
    • (1951) Research Note
    • Smeed, R.J.1
  • 30
    • 85024442129 scopus 로고
    • Living with the Lorry
    • UK: University of Leicester
    • Sharp, C.H., “Living with the Lorry,” A Report, UK: University of Leicester, 1973.
    • (1973) A Report
    • Sharp, C.H.1
  • 34
    • 85024441325 scopus 로고
    • (F.Y. Japan Statistical Yearbook, http://www.stat.go.jp/data/nihon/zuhyou/n0501300.5cls
    • Statistics Bureau, National Government Debt Outstanding (F.Y. 1980-2003) Japan Statistical Yearbook, http://www.stat.go.jp/data/nihon/zuhyou/n0501300.5cls.
    • (1980) National Government Debt Outstanding
    • Bureau, S.1
  • 35
    • 85024448161 scopus 로고
    • An Analysis of Increase in Motor vehicles in Great Britain and the United State
    • Harmondworth: Road Research Laboratory, RN/3340
    • Tanner, J.C., “An Analysis of Increase in Motor vehicles in Great Britain and the United State,” Research Note, Harmondworth: Road Research Laboratory, RN/3340, 1958.
    • (1958) Research Note
    • Tanner, J.C.1
  • 36
    • 0005855185 scopus 로고
    • Forecasts of Vehicles and Traffic in Great Britain: 1974 revision
    • Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory Department of the Environment
    • Tanner, J.C., “Forecasts of Vehicles and Traffic in Great Britain: 1974 revision.” TRRL Report, Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory Department of the Environment, 1975, LR 650.
    • (1975) TRRL Report , pp. LR 650
    • Tanner, J.C.1
  • 37
    • 0008609807 scopus 로고
    • Car Ownership Trends and Forecasts
    • Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory Department of the Environment and Transport
    • Tanner, J.C., “Car Ownership Trends and Forecasts,” TRRL Report, Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory Department of the Environment and Transport, 1977, LR799.
    • (1977) TRRL Report , pp. LR799
    • Tanner, J.C.1
  • 38
    • 0004006213 scopus 로고
    • Long-term Forecasting of Vehicle Ownership and Road Traffic
    • Tanner, J.C., “Long-term Forecasting of Vehicle Ownership and Road Traffic,” J.R. Statist. Soc. A, Vol. 141, Part 1, 1978, pp. 14-63.
    • (1978) J.R. Statist. Soc. A , vol.141 , pp. 14-63
    • Tanner, J.C.1
  • 40
    • 0003650264 scopus 로고
    • Qualitative Choice Analysis: Theory, Econometrics, and Application to Automobile Demand
    • Cambridge MA: MIT Pres
    • Train, K., “Qualitative Choice Analysis: Theory, Econometrics, and Application to Automobile Demand,” Cambridge MA: MIT Pres, 1986, pp. 357-370.
    • (1986) , pp. 357-370
    • Train, K.1
  • 41
    • 85024470222 scopus 로고
    • Investigations into Vehicle Ownership in Developing Countries
    • Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory
    • Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL), “Investigations into Vehicle Ownership in Developing Countries,” TRRL Leaflet, Crowthorne: Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 1979, LF758.
    • (1979) TRRL Leaflet , pp. LF758
  • 42
    • 85024467218 scopus 로고
    • Trends in Transport Fright in Great Britain
    • Transport Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne: Department of the Environment
    • Tulpule, A.H., “Trends in Transport Fright in Great Britain,” TRRL Report, Transport Road Research Laboratory, Crowthorne: Department of the Environment, 1972, LR429.
    • (1972) TRRL Report , pp. LR429
    • Tulpule, A.H.1
  • 43
    • 85024469528 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • [CD-ROM]. Brussels: Union Internationale des Transport Publics
    • Union Internationale des Transport Publics(UITP), The Millennium Cities Database for Sustainable Transport. [CD-ROM]. Brussels: Union Internationale des Transport Publics, 1999.
    • (1999) The Millennium Cities Database for Sustainable Transport
  • 44
    • 85024442943 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Report of Vehicle-Related Taxes
    • Japanese) Tokyo: Working Group of Vehicle-Related Taxes
    • Working Group of Vehicle-Related Taxes (WGVRT), “A Report of Vehicle-Related Taxes (in Japanese),” Tokyo: Working Group of Vehicle-Related Taxes, 2001.
    • (2001)


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.