Long-term crime desistance and recidivism patterns-evidence from the Essex County convicted felon study

Criminology

Volumn 50, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 71-103

  Kurlychek, Megan C ^a   Bushway, Shawn D ^a   Brame, Robert ^b  

^a STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHARLOTTE   (United States)

Author keywords

Crime desistance; Criminal careers; Recidivism; Survival models

Indexed keywords

EID: 84856439602     PISSN: 00111384     EISSN: 17459125     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1745-9125.2011.00259.x     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Anscombe, Francis John. 1961. Estimating a mixed-exponential response law. Journal of the American Statistical Association 56:493-502.
2. Barnett, Arnold, Alfred Blumstein, and David P. Farrington 1987. Probabilistic models of youthful criminal careers. Criminology 25:38-108.
3. Barnett, Arnold, Alfred Blumstein, and David P. Farrington 1989. A prospective test of a criminal career model. Criminology 27:373-85.
4. Baskin, Deborah, and Ira Sommers 1998. Casualties of Community Disorder: Women's Careers in Violent Crime. Boulder, CO : Westview Press.
5. Beck, Allen J., and Bernard E. Shipley 1989. Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1983. Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report. Washington, DC : U.S. Department of Justice.
6. Blumstein, Alfred, Jacqueline Cohen, Jeffrey A. Roth, and Christy A. Visher, eds. 1986. Criminal Careers and Career Criminals, vols. 1 and 2. Washington, DC : National Academy Press.
7. Blumstein, Alfred, David P. Farrington, and Soumyo Moitra 1985. Delinquency careers: Innocents, desisters, and persisters. Crime and Justice 6:187-219.
8. Blumstein, Alfred, and Richard Larson 1969. Models of a total criminal justice system. Operations Research 17:199-232.
9. Blumstein, Alfred, and Soumyo Moitra 1980. The identification of "career criminals" from "chronic offenders" in a cohort. Law and Policy Quarterly 2:321-34.
10. Blumstein, Alfred, and Kiminori Nakamura 2009. Redemption in the presence of widespread criminal background checks. Criminology 47:327-59.
11. Brame, Robert, Shawn D. Bushway, and Raymond Paternoster 2003. Examining the prevalence of criminal desistance. Criminology 41:423-48.
12. Bushway, Shawn D., Paul Nieuwbeerta, and Arjan Blokland 2011. The predictive value of criminal background checks: Do age and criminal history affect time to redemption? Criminology 49:27-60.
13. Bushway, Shawn D., Alex R. Piquero, Lisa M. Broidy, Elizabeth Cauffman, and Paul Mazerolle 2001. An empirical framework for studying desistance as a process. Criminology 39:491-513.
14. Carr-Hill, G. A. and R. A. Carr-Hill 1972. Reconviction as a process. British Journal of Criminology 12:35-43.
15. Dean, Charles W., Robert Brame, and Alex R. Piquero 1996. Criminal propensities, discrete groups of offenders, and persistence in crime. Criminology 34:547-74.
16. DeJong, Christina. 1997. Survival analysis and specific deterrence: Integrating theoretical and empirical models of recidivism. Criminology 35:561-75.
17. Gottfredson, Don M. 1999a. Effects of Judges' Sentencing Decisions on Criminal Careers. NIJ Research in Brief. Washington, DC : U.S. Department of Justice.
18. Gottfredson, Don M. 1999b. Choosing Punishments: Crime Control Effects of Sentences. Unpublished final report to the National Institute of Justice, Document #179278.
19. Henningsen, Arne, and Ott Toomet 2010. maxLik: A package for maximum likelihood estimation in R. Computational Statistics 26:443-58.
20. Horney, Julie, D. Wayne Osgood, and Ineke H. Marshall 1995. Criminal careers in the short term: Intra-individual variability in crime and its relation to local life circumstances. American Sociological Review 60:655-73.
21. Kitchener, Howard, Annesley K. Schmidt, and Daniel Glaser 1977. How persistent is post-prison success? Federal Probation 41:9-15.
22. Klugman, Stuart A., Harry H. Panjer, and Gordon E. Wilmot 2008. Loss Models: From Data to Decisions, 3rd ed. New York : Wiley.
23. Kurlychek, Megan C., Robert Brame, and Shawn D. Bushway 2006. Scarlet letters and recidivism: Does an old criminal record predict future offending. Criminology & Public Policy 5:483-504.
24. Kurlychek, Megan C., Robert Brame, and Shawn D. Bushway 2007. Enduring risk? Old criminal records and predictions of future criminal involvement. Crime & Delinquency 53:64-83.
25. Langan, Patrick A., and David J. Levin 2002. Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994. Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report. Washington, DC : U.S. Department of Justice.
26. Lattimore, Pamela K., and Joanna R. Baker 1993. The impact of recidivism and capacity on prison populations. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 8:189-215.
27. Laub, John H., and Robert J. Sampson 2001. Understanding desistance from crime. In Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, vol. 28, eds. Michael H. Tonry and Paul Mazzerolle Belmont, CA : Wadsworth.
28. Leblanc, Marc, and Rolf Loeber 1998. Developmental criminology updated. In Crime and Justice: A Review of Research, vol. 23, ed. Michael H. Tonry Chicago, IL : University of Chicago Press.
29. Maltz, Michael D. 1984. Recidivism. New York : Academic Press.
30. Maltz, Michael D. 1996. From Poisson to the present: Applying operations research to problems in criminal justice. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 12:3-61.
31. Maltz, Michael D., and Richard McCleary 1977. The mathematics of behavioral change. Evaluation Quarterly 1:421-38.
32. Maruna, Shadd. 1999. Criminology, desistance, and the psychology of the stranger. In The Sociology of Crime: Groups, Teams, and Networks, eds. David Cantor and L. Alison. Aldershot, U.K. : Ashgate.
33. Nagin, Daniel S., and Kenneth C. Land 1993. Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, mixed Poisson model. Criminology 31:327-62.
34. National Research Council. 2008. Parole, Desistance from Crime, and Community Integration. Washington, DC : National Academy Press.
35. Sampson, Robert J., and John H. Laub 2003. Life-course desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70. Criminology 41:319-39.
36. Schmidt, Peter, and Ann Dryden Witte 1984. An Economic Analysis of Crime and Justice: Theory, Methods, and Applications. New York : Academic Press.
37. Schmidt, Peter, and Ann Dryden Witte 1988. Predicting Recidivism Using Survival Models. New York : Springer-Verlag.
38. Soothill, Kevin, and Brian Francis 2009. When do ex-offenders become like non-offenders? Howard Journal of Criminal Justice 48:373-87.
39. Stollmack, Stephen, and Carl M. Harris 1974. Failure-rate analysis applied to recidivism data. Operations Research 22:1193-205.
40. U.S. Office of Management and Budget. 2008. Update of Statistical Area Definitions and Guidance on their Uses. OMB Bulletin Number 09-01. Washington, DC : U.S. Office of Management and Budget.
41. Visher, Christy A., Pamela K. Lattimore, and Richard L. Linster 1991. Predicting the recidivism of serious youthful offenders using survival models. Criminology 29:329-63.
42. Wasserman, Larry. 2000. Bayesian model selection and model averaging. Journal of Mathematical Psychology 44:92-107.
43. Witte, Ann Dryden, and Peter Schmidt 1977. An analysis of recidivism using the truncated lognormal distribution. Applied Statistics 26:302-11.