Dynamics of rabies epidemics and the impact of control efforts in Guangdong Province, China

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 300, Issue , 2012, Pages 39-47

  Hou, Qiang ^a   Jin, Zhen ^a   Ruan, Shigui ^a,b  

^a NORTH UNIVERSITY OF CHINA   (China)

^b Department of Biology   (United States)

Author keywords

Basic reproduction number; Mathematical modeling; Rabies; Sensitivity analysis; Stability

Indexed keywords

DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; NUMERICAL MODEL; RABIES; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

ANIMAL CARE; ARTICLE; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; CHINA; DISEASE CARRIER; DISEASE COURSE; DISEASE FREE INTERVAL; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; DOMESTIC ANIMAL; EPIDEMIC; HUMAN; INFECTION CONTROL; INFECTION PREVENTION; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; RABIES; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SIMULATION; VACCINATION; ZOONOSIS;

ANIMALS; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; CHINA; DOG DISEASES; DOGS; EPIDEMICS; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; RABIES; RABIES VACCINES; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; VACCINATION;

CHINA; GUANGDONG;

CANIS FAMILIARIS;

EID: 84856301576     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2012.01.006     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Allen L.J.S., Flores D.A., Ratnayake R.K., Herbold J.R. Discrete-time deterministic and stochastic models for the spread of rabies. Appl. Math. Comput. 2002, 132:271-292.
2. Artois M., Langlais M., Suppo C. Simulation of rabies control within an increasing fox population. Ecol. Model. 1997, 97:23-34.
3. Bohrer G., Shem-Tov S., Summer E., Or K., Saltz D. The effectiveness of various rabies spatial vaccination patterns in a simulated host population with clumped distribution. Ecol. Model. 2002, 152:205-211.
4. CCDC, 2006. Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Questions and Answers about Rabies 〈〉. http://www.chinacdc.cn/jkzt/crb/kqb/kqbzstd/200605/t20060522_24185.htm.
5. Clayton T., Duke-Sylvester S., Gross L.J., Lenhartd S., Real L.A. Optimal control of a rabies epidemic model with a birth pulse. J. Biol. Dyn. 2010, 4:43-58.
6. DOHG, 2010. Department of Health of Guangdong Province, Bulletins 〈〉. http://www.gdwst.gov.cn/a/yiqingxx/.
7. 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J. Math. Biol. 1990, 28:365-382.
8. Ding W.-D., Gross L.J., Langston K., Lenhart S., Real L.A. Rabies in raccoons: optimal control for a discrete time model on a spatial grid. J. Biol. Dyn. 2007, 1:379-393.
9. Fooks A.R. Rabies in Europe-editorial. Eurosurveillance 2005, 10:1-4.
10. Freedman H.I., Ruan S., Tang M. Uniform persistence and flows near a closed positively invariant set. J. Dyn. Differential Equations 1994, 6:583-600.
11. GSY, 2010a. Guangdong Statistical Yearbook (Main Population Indicators) 〈〉. http://www.gdstats.gov.cn/tjnj/table/4/c4_1.htm.
12. GSY, 2010b. Guangdong Statistical Yearbook (Status of Natural Population Changes) 〈〉. http://www.gdstats.gov.cn/tjnj/table/4/c4_2.htm.
13. Hampson K., Dushoff J., Bingham J., Brückner G., Ali Y.H., Dobson A. Synchronous cycles of domestic dog rabies in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of control efforts. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2007, 104:7717-7727.
14. Harnos A., Reiczigel J., Solymosi N., Vattay G. Analysis of the effect of immunization in rabies time series. J. Theor. Biol. 2006, 240:72-77.
15. He J.-F., Kang M., Li L.-H., Liang W.-J. Exposure to human rabies and the related risk factors in Guangdong. Chin. J. Epidemiol. 2009, 30:532-533. (in Chinese).
16. Hu R.-L., Fooks A.R., Zhang S.-F., Liu Y., Zhang F. Inferior rabies vaccine quality and low immunization coverage in dogs (Canis familiaris) in China. Epidemiol. Infect. 2008, 136:1556-1563.
17. Hu R.-L., Tang Q., Tang J., Fooks A.R. Rabies in China: an update. Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2009, 9:1-12.
18. Hutson V., Schmitt K. Permanence and the dynamics of biological systems. Math. Biosci. 1992, 111(1992):1-71.
19. Knobel D.L., Cleaveland S., Coleman P.G., Fevre E.M., Meltzer M.I., Miranda M.E.G., Shaw A., Zinsstag J. Re-evaluating the burden of rabies in Africa and Asia. Bull. WHO 2005, 83:360-368.
20. Langlais M., Suppo C. A remark on a generic SEIRS model and application to cat retroviruses and fox rabies. Math. Comput. Model. 2000, 31:117-124.
21. MOHC, 2009. Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China, The Status of Prevention and Control of Rabies in China (Zhongguo Kuangquanbing Fangzhi Xiankuang) 〈〉. http://www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/mohbgt/s9513/200909/42937.htm.
22. MOHC, 2010. Ministry of Health of the People's Republic of China, Bulletins 〈〉. http://www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/wsb/pyqxx/list.htm.
23. Murray J.D., Seward W.L. On the spatial spread of rabies among foxes with immunity. J. Theor. Biol. 1992, 156:327-348.
24. Rhodes C.J., Atkinson R.P.D., Anderson R.M., Macdonald D.W. Rabies in Zimbabwe: reservoir dogs and the implications for disease control. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London Ser. B 1998, 353:999-1010.
25. Shi X.-R. Zoonotic disease-rabies. Bull. Biol. Chin. 2005, 40(12):17-18.
26. Si H., Guo Z.-M., Hao Y.-T., Liu Y.-G., Zhang D.-M., Rao S.-Q., Lu J.-H. Rabies trend in China (1990-2007) and post-exposure prophylaxis in the Guangdong Province. BMC Infect. Dis. 2008, 8:113.
27. Si H., Liu Y.-G., Li G.-W., Liu Z.-Y., Lu J.-H. Analysis on the characteristic of rabies epidemiology in Guangdong Province from 1990 to 2005. J. Sun Yat Sen Univ. (Med. Sci.) 2007, 28:263-264. (in Chinese).
28. Smith G.C., Cheeseman C.L. A mathematical model for the control of diseases in wildlife populations: culling, vaccination and fertility control. Ecol. Model. 2002, 150:45-53.
29. Song M., Tang Q., Wang D.-M., Mo Z.-J., Guo S.-H., Li H., Tao X.-Y., Rupprecht C.E., Feng Z.-J., Liang G.-D. Epidemiological investigations of human rabies in China. BMC Infect. Dis. 2009, 9:210.
30. Tischendorf L., Thulke H.-H., Staubach C., Müller M.S., Jeltsch F., Goretzki J., Selhorst T., Müller T., Schlüter H., Wissel C. Chance and risk of controlling rabies in large-scale and long-term immunized fox populations. Proc. R. Soc. London Ser. B 1998, 265:839-846.
31. van den Driessche P., Watmough J. Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission. Math. Biosci. 2002, 180:29-48.
32. Wang Z.-X. WHO position on rabies vaccine. Int. J. Biol. 2002, 25:245-248.
33. WHO, 1999. World Survey of Rabies for 1998. Geneva.
34. WHO, 2005. WHO expert consultation on rabies: first report. WHO Technical Report Series 931, pp. 1-121.
35. Wu X., Hu R., Zhang Y., Dong G., Rupprecht C.E. Reemerging rabies and lack of systemic surveillance in People's Republic of China. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 2009, 15:1159-1164.
36. Zhang J., Jin Z., Sun G.-Q., Zhou T., Ruan S. Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control. PLoS ONE 2011, 6(7):e20891. 10.1371/journal.pone.0020891.
37. Zhang, J., Jin, Z., Sun, G.-Q., Sun, X.-D., Ruan, S. Modeling seasonal rabies epidemics in China, submitted for publication.
38. Zhang Y.-Z., Xiao D.-L., Sun Y.-H., Yang X.-R., Yan Y.-Z. The epidemic situation of human rabies from 1984 to 2002 and its preventive measures in China. Chin. J. Epidemiol. 2003, 24:883-886.
39. Zhao X. Dynamical Systems in Population Biology 2003, Springer, New York.
40. Zinsstag J., Dürra S., Penny M., Mindekem R., Roth F., Menendez Gonzalez S., Naissengar S., Hattendorf J. Transmission dynamics and economics of rabies control in dogs and humans in an African city. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2009, 106:14996-15001.