Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

Climatic Change

Volumn 109, Issue SUPPL. 1, 2011, Pages 71-94

  Das, Tapash ^a,d   Dettinger, Michael D ^a,b   Cayan, Daniel R ^a,b   Hidalgo, Hugo G ^c  

^a San Diego   (United States)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSIDAD DE COSTA RICA   (Costa Rica)

^d CH2MHILL Inc   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL MAXIMA; CALIFORNIA; CLIMATE PROJECTION; FLOOD EVENT; FLOOD HAZARDS; FUTURE CLIMATE; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; HEAVY PRECIPITATION; HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS; HYDROLOGIC MODELS; LYING AREA; SIERRA NEVADA; STORM SYSTEMS; TEMPERATURE PROJECTION; VARIABLE INFILTRATION CAPACITIES;

CATCHMENTS; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FLOODS; RAIN; SOIL MOISTURE; STORMS; WATER MANAGEMENT;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; FLOOD DAMAGE; FLOODING; FUTURE PROSPECT; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; MOUNTAIN REGION; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; SOIL MOISTURE; STREAMFLOW; TEMPERATURE EFFECT; TOPOGRAPHIC MAPPING; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; VULNERABILITY; WATER MANAGEMENT;

CALIFORNIA; SIERRA NEVADA [CALIFORNIA]; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84855339851     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0298-z     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Anderson M, Miller NL, Heiland B, King J, Lek B, Nemeth S, Pranger T, Roos M (2006) Climate change impacts on flood management. Chapter 6, Progress on incorporating climate change into management of California's water resources. California Department of Water Resources Progress Report. Governor's Climate Initiative Report.
2. Barnett TP, Pierce DW, Hidalgo HG, Bonfils C, Santer BD, Das T, Bala G, Wood A, Nazawa T, Mirin A, Cayan D, Dettinger M (2008) Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western US. Science. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1152538.
3. Bonfils C, Duffy PB, Santer BD, Wigley TML, Lobell DB, Phillips TJ, Doutriaux C (2008) Identification of external influences on temperatures in California. Clim Chang 87(Suppl 1): S43-S55. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-007-9374-9.
4. Brekke LD, Maurer EP, Anderson JD, Dettinger MD, Townsley ES, Harrison A, Pruitt T (2009) Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change. Water Resour Res 45: W04411. doi: 10. 1029/2008WR006941.
5. Cayan DR, Peterson DH (1989) The influence of North Pacific atmospheric circulation on streamflow in the West. PACLIM. AGU monograph, No 55, American Geophysical Union. 375-397.
6. Cayan DR, Peterson DH (1993) Spring climate and salinity in the San Francisco Bay Estuary. Water Resour Res 2: 293-303.
7. Cayan DR, Riddle L (1992) Atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the Sierra Nevada: Proceedings, International Symposium on Managing Water Resources During Global Change. American Water Resources Association, Reno, Nevada, Nov 1-5.
8. Cayan DR, Dettinger MD, Hanson R, Brown T, Westerling A (2001) Investigation of climate change impacts on water resources in the California region, Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Progress Report, 1/19/01, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, U. S. Geological Survey, Desert Research Institute, p 26.
9. Cayan DR, Maurer EP, Dettinger MD, Tyree M, Hayhoe K (2008a) Climate change scenarios for the California region. Clim Chang 87(suppl 1): 21-42. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-007-9377-6.
10. Cayan DR, Lures AL, Franco G, Hanemann M, Croes B, Vine E (2008b) Overview of the California climate change scenarios project. Clim Chang 87(suppl 1): S1-S6. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-007-9352-2.
11. Cayan D, Tyree M, Dettinger M, Hidalgo H, Das T, Maurer E, Bromirski P, Graham N, Flick R (2009) Climate change scenarios and sea level rise estimates for the California 2009 climate change scenarios assessment. California Climate Change Center. CEC-500-2009-014-F, p 64. Available online: http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-500-2009-014/CEC-500-2009-014-F.PDF.
12. Cayan DR, Das T, Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Tyree M, Gershunov A (2010) Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107(50): 21271-21276. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0912391107.
13. Cherkauer KA, Bowling LC, Lettenmaier DP (2003) Variable infiltration capacity cold land process model updates, Global Plan. Change 38: 151-159.
14. Chow VT, Maidment DR, Mays LW (1988) Applied hydrology. Mcgraw-Hill International Editions, Civil Engineering Series.
15. Chung F, Anderson J, Arora S, Ejeta M, Galef J, Kadir T, Kao K, Olson A, Quan C, Reyes E, Roos M, Seneviratne S, Wang J, Yin H, Blomquist N (2009) Using future climate projections to support water resources decision making in California, California Energy Commission Technical Report CEC-500-2009-052-F, August 2009.
16. Daly C, Neilson RP, Phillips DL (1994) A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain. J Appl Meteorol 33: 140-158.
17. Das T, Hugo G, Hidalgo MD, Dettinger DR, Cayan DW, Pierce CB, Barnett TP, Bala G, Mirin A (2009) Structure and Detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the Western US. J Hydrometeorol 10: 871-892. doi: 10. 1175/2009JHM1095. 1.
18. Dettinger MD (2004) Fifty-two years of pineapple-express storms across the West Coast of North America. US Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography for the California Energy Commission. PIER project report. CEC-500-2005-004, 20 Pp. Available online at http://www.energy.ca.gov/2005publications/CEC-500-2005-004/CEC-500-2005-004.PDF.
19. Dettinger MD (2005) From climate change spaghetti to climate change distributions for 21st Century. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science 3(1).
20. Dettinger MD (2011) Climate change, atmospheric rivers and floods in California-A multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes: Journal of American Water Resources Association 47: 514-523.
21. Dettinger MD, Cayan DR (1995) Large-scale atmospheric forcing of recent trends toward early snowmelt runoff in California. J Climate 8: 606-623.
22. Dettinger MD, Cayan DR, Meyer MK, Jeton AE (2004) Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099. Clim Chang 62: 283-317.
23. Dettinger M, Hidalgo H, Das T, Cayan D, Knowles N (2009) Projections of potential flood regime changes in California. Public Interest Energy Research, California Energy Commission, Sacramento, CA. Available online at http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CEC-500-2009-050/CEC-500-2009-050-D.PDF.
24. Dettinger MD, Ralph FM, Hughes M, Das T, Neiman P, Cox D, Estes G, Reynolds D, Hartman R, Cayan D, Jones L (2011) Requirements and designs for a winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California. Natural Hazards. doi: 10. 1007/s11069-011-9894-5.
25. DWR (2005a) Bulletin 160-05 California Water Plan Update.
26. DWR (2005) Flood warning: Responding to California's Flood Crisis. State of California, The Resources Agency, Department of Water Resources, January 2005.
27. DWR (2006) Progress on incorporating climate change into planning and management of California's Water Resources, California Department of Water Resources, Technical Memorandum Report, July 2006.
28. DWR (2007) A California challenge - flooding in the Central Valley. A report to the Department of Water Resources, State of California, October 2007.
29. Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 2889(5487): 2068-2074.
30. Franco G, Cayan D, Moser S, Hanemann M, Jones M-A (2011) Second California Assessment: Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment of Natural and Managed Systems. Climatic Change. In this Issue.
31. Griffis VW, Stedinger JR (2007) Incorporating climate change and variability into bulletin 17B LP3 Model, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2007: Restoring Our Natural Habitat, American Society of Civil Engineers, 8.
32. Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Production of temporally consistent gridded precipitation and temperature fields for the continental U. S. J Hydrometeorol 6: 330-336.
33. Hamlet AF, Lettenmaier DP (2007) Effects of 20th Century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the Western U. S. Water Resour Res 43: W06427. doi: 10. 1029/2006WR005099.
34. Healey M, Dettinger M, Norgaard R (eds) (2008) The state of Bay-Delta science, 2008: CALFED Science Program, 174 p., http://science.calwater.ca.gov/publications/sbds.html.
35. Hidalgo HG, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR (2008) Downscaling with constructed analogues: daily precipitation and temperature fields over the United States. California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research. CEC-500-2007-123. p. 48. Available online: www.energy.ca.gov/2007publications/CEC-500-2007-123/CEC-500-2007-123.PDF.
36. Hidalgo HG, Das T, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR, Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Bala G, Mirin A, Wood AW, Bonfils C, Santer BD, Nozawa T (2009) Detection and attribution of climate change in streamflow timing of the Western United States. J Clim 22(13): 3838-3855.
37. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p 996.
38. Jain S, Lall U, Mann ME (1999) Seasonality and interannual variations of Northern Hemisphere temperature: Equator-to-pole gradient and ocean-land contrast. J Clim 12: 1086-1100.
39. Kimball JS, Running SW, Nemani R (1997) An improved method for estimating surface humidity from daily minimum temperature. Agric For Meteorol 85: 87-98.
40. Knowles N, Cayan DR (2004) Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the SanFrancisco Estuary and watershed. Clim Chang 62(1): 319-336.
41. Knowles N, Dettinger M, Cayan D (2006) Trends in snowfall versus rainfall for the Western United States. J Clim 19(18): 4545-4559.
42. Lettenmaier DP, Gan TY (1990) Hydrologic sensitivities of the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Basin, California, to global warming. Water Resour Res 26: 69-86.
43. Liang X, Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Burges SJ (1994) A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for GSMs. J Geophys Res 99(D7): 14, 415-14, 428.
44. Lohmann D, Nolte-Holube R, Raschke E (1996) A large scale horizontal routing model to be coupled to land surface parameterization schemes. Tellus 48A: 708-721.
45. Maurer EP (2007) Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios. Clim Chang 82(3-4): 309-325. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-006-9180-9.
46. Maurer EP, Hidalgo HG (2008) Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12: 551-563.
47. Maurer EP, Wood AW, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP, Nijssen B (2002) A long-term hydrologically-based data set of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J Clim 15: 3237-3251.
48. Maurer EP, Hidalgo HG, Das T, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR (2010a) The utility of daily large-scale climate data in the assessment of climate change impacts on daily streamflow in California. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14: 1125-1138, 113.
49. Maurer EP, Brekke LD, Pruitt T (2010b) Contrasting lumped and distributed hydrology models for estimating climate change impacts on California watersheds. J Am Water Resour Assoc 46(5): 1024-1035. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1752-1688. 2010. 00473.
50. McCabe GJ, Clark MP, Hay LE (2007) Rain-on-snow events in the Western United States. BAMS, 1-10.
51. Miller NL, Bashford KE, Strem E (2003) Potential impacts of climate change on California hydrology. J Amer Water Resoures Assoc 771-784.
52. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Falkenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319(5863): 573-574.
53. Mo KC, Chelliah M, Carrera ML, Higgins RW, Ebisuzaki W (2005) Atmospheric moisture transport over the United States and Mexico as evaluated in the NCEP regional reanalysis. J Hydrometeorol 6: 710-728.
54. Mote P, Hamlet AF, Clark MP, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 86: 39-49.
55. Neiman PJ, Ralph FM, Wick GA, Lundquist JD, Dettinger MD (2008) Meteorological characteristics and overland precipitation impacts of atmospheric rivers affecting the West Coast of North America based on 8 years of SSM/I. J Hydrometeorol 9: 22-47.
56. Nijssen B, O'Donnell GM, Lettenmaier DP, Lohmann D, Wood EF (2001) Predicting the discharge of global rivers. J Clim 14: 3307-3323.
57. Pandey GR, Cayan DR, Georgakakos KP (1999) Precipitation structure in the Sierra Nevada of California during winter. J Geophys Res 104: 12019-12030.
58. Pielke RA Jr, Downton MW (2000) Precipitation and damaging floods: trends in the United States, 1932-97. J Clim 13(20): 3625-3637.
59. Pielke RA Jr, Downton MW, Barnard Miller JZ (2002) Flood damage in the United States, 1926-2000: a reanalysis of national weather service estimates. UCAR, Boulder.
60. Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Bala G, Mirin A, Wood AW, Bonfils C, Santer BD, Nozawa T (2008) Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the Western United States. J Clim 22: 3838-3855.
61. Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Santer BD, Gleckler PJ (2009) Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc Natl Acad Sci. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0900094106.
62. Raff DA, Pruitt T, Brekke LD (2009) A framework for assessing flood frequency based on climate projection information. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13(1-18).
63. Ralph FM, Neiman PJ, Wick GA, Gutman SI, Dettinger MD, Cayan DR, White AB (2006) Flooding on California's Russian river: Role of atmospheric rivers. Geophys Res Lett 33: L13801. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026689.
64. Roos M (1997) The top ten California floods of the 20th Century. In: CM Isaacs, Tharp VL (eds.) Proceedings of the Thirteenth Annual Pacific Climate 742 (PACLIM) Workshop. April 15-18, 1996. Interagency Ecological Program. Technical Report 53. 743 California Department of Water Resources, pp. 9-18.
65. Roos M (2006) Flood management practice in northern California. Irrig Drain 55: S93-S99.
66. Shabri A (2002) A comparison of plotting formulas for the Pearson Type III distributions. J Technol 36(C): 61-74.
67. Sheffield J, Wood EF (2007) Characteristics of global and regional drought, 1950-2000: analysis of soil moisture data from off-line simulation of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle. J Geophys Res 112: D17115. doi: 10. 1029/2006JD008288.
68. Sivapalan M, Samuel JM (2009) Transcending limitations of stationarity and the return period: process-based approach to flood estimation and risk assessment. Hydrol Process 23: 1671-1675. doi: 10. 1002/hyp. 7292.
69. Stewart IT, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD (2005) Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across Western North America. J Clim 18: 1136-1155.
70. Thornton PE, Running SW (1999) An improved algorithm for estimating incident daily solar radiation from measurements of temperature, humidity, and precipitation. Agric For Meteorol 93: 211-228.
71. Todini E (1996) The ARNO rainfall-runoff model. J Hydrol 175: 339-382.
72. Trenberth KE (1999) Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change. Clim Chang 42: 327-339.
73. Wood AW, Lettenmaier DP (2006) A testbed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the western U. S. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87: 12. doi: 10. 1175/BAMS-87-12-1699, 1699-1712.
74. Wood EF, Lettenmaier DP, Zartarian VG (1992) A land-surface hydrology parameterization with subgrid variability for general circulation models. J Geophys Res 97: 2717-2728.