Phenological models for the beginning of apple blossom in Germany

Meteorologische Zeitschrift

Volumn 20, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 487-496

  Chmielewski, Frank M ^a   Blümel, Klaus ^a   Henniges, Yvonne ^a   Blanke, Michael ^b   Weber, Roland W S ^c   Zoth, Michael ^d  

^a HUMBOLDT UNIVERSITY   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BONN   (Germany)

^c Fruit Growing Research Institute   (Germany)

^d Competence Centre Fruit Growing Bodensee ^*  (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

APPLE CULTIVARS; APPLE ORCHARDS; APPLE TREES; DEVELOPMENTAL STAGE; DYNAMICAL CALCULATIONS; FRUIT CROPS; FRUIT SETS; GERMANY; GRID POINTS; GROWING REGIONS; MANAGEMENT DECISIONS; MECHANISTIC MODELS; MODEL PARAMETERS; PARALLEL MODELS; PHENOLOGICAL MODEL; PHENOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS; RESEARCH CENTRES; ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERRORS; SECOND ORDERS; SEQUENTIAL MODEL; STATISTICAL MODELS; TEMPERATURE DATA; TIME MODEL; UNIVERSAL KRIGING; WATER BUDGET MODEL; WEATHER SERVICES; WESTERN EUROPE; YIELD MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CROPS; CULTIVATION; FRUITS; MEAN SQUARE ERROR; PHENOLS; PLANTS (BOTANY);

CLIMATE MODELS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE FORCING; DEVELOPMENTAL STAGE; ENVIRONMENTAL FACTOR; FRUIT; FRUIT PRODUCTION; NUMERICAL MODEL; PHENOLOGY; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WATER BUDGET;

GERMANY;

MALUS X DOMESTICA; PRUNUS ARMENIACA; PYRUS;

EID: 84855176484     PISSN: 09412948     EISSN: 16101227     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0258     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (45)

1. BAHP, 1991: Anleitung für die Beobachter des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (BAHP). Vorschriften und Betriebsunterlagen, Nr. 17, dritte völlig neu gestaltete Auflage.-Deutscher Wetterdienst Offenbach a. M., 155 pp.
2. BLANKE, M. M., A. KUNZ, 2009: Effects of climate change on pome fruit phenology at Klein-Altendorf.-Erwerbs-Obstbau 51, 101-114 (special edition on climate change).
3. BLÜMEL, K., G. SCHNEIDER, T. GÜNTER, 2003: Bereitstellung von operativ nutzbaren Vorhersagen zur Schmelzund Niederschlagswasserabgabe aus der Schneedecke für das Beratungsgebiet Rheinland-Pfalz, Saarland, für Teile von Nordrhein-Westfalen und Hessen sowie das französische Moselgebiet, Luxembourg und Baden-Württemberg (SNOW-RP2002), Band 1 und 2.-Deutscher Wetterdienst, Geschäftsfeld Hydrometeorologie, Referat Hydrometeorologische Entwicklungen und Anwendungen, 278 S.
4. CANNELL, M. G. R., R. I. SMITH, 1983: Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in Picea sitchensis.-J. Appl. Ecol. 20, 951-963. (Pubitemid 15273251)
5. CHMIELEWSKI, F.-M., T. RÖTZER, 2001: Response of tree phenology to climate change across Europe.-Agricult. Forest Meteor. 108, 101-112. (Pubitemid 32453793)
6. CHMIELEWSKI, F.-M., A. MÜLLER, E. BRUNS, 2004: Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961-2000.-Agricult. Forest Meteor. 121, 69-78. (Pubitemid 38086340)
7. CHMIELEWSKI, F.-M., K. BLÜMEL, Y. HENNIGES, A. MÜLLER, R. W. S. WEBER, 2009a: Klimawandel: Chancen, Risiken und Kosten für den deutschen Obstbau.-In: MAHAMMADZADEH, M., H. BIEBELER, H. BARDT (Hrsg.): Klimaschutz und Anpassung an die Klimafolgen - Strategien, Maßnahmen und Anwendungsbeispiele.-Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, Medien GmbH, 279-286.
8. CHMIELEWSKI, F.-M., K. BLÜMEL, Y. HENNIGES, A. MÜLLER, 2009b: Klimawandel und Obstbau in Deutschland.-Abschlussbericht des Teilprojekts der HU Berlin. Eigenverlag, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 237 S.
9. CHUINE, I., P. COUR, D. D. ROUSSEAU, 1998: Fitting models predicting dates of flowering of temperate-zone trees using simulated annealing.-Plant, Cell Environ. 21, 455-466. (Pubitemid 28338688)
10. CHUINE, I., P. COUR, D. D. ROUSSEAU, 1999: Selecting models to predict the timing of flowering of temperate trees: implications for tree phenology modelling.-Plant, Cell Environ. 22, 1-13. (Pubitemid 29120470)
11. CHUINE, I., K. KRAMER, H. HÄNNINEN, 2003: Plant development models.-In: SCHWARZ, M. D. (Ed.): Phenology: An integrative environmental science.-Kluwer, Dordrecht, 217-235.
12. COUVILLON, G. A., 1995: Temperature and stress effects on rest in fruit trees: A review.-Acta Horticultura 395, 11-19.
13. ECCEL, E., R. REA, A. CAFFARA, A. CRISCI, 2009: Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation. - Int. J. Biometeor. 53, 273-286.
14. FISHMAN S., A. EREZ, G. A. COUVILLON, 1987a: The Temperature Dependence of Dormancy Breaking in Plants: Computer Simulation of Processes Studied under Controlled Temperatures.-J. Theor. Biol. 126, 309-321.
15. FISHMAN S., A. EREZ, G. A. COUVILLON, 1987b: The Temperature Dependence of Dormancy Breaking in Plants: Mathematical Analysis of a Two-Step Model Involving a Cooperative Transition. - J. Theor. Biol. 124, 473-483.
16. HÄNNINEN, H., 1990: Modelling bud dormancy release in trees from cool and temperate regions.-Acta Forestalia Fennica 213, 1-47.
17. HENNIGES, Y., F.-M. CHMIELEWSKI, 2007: Trends phänologischer Phasen von Obstgehölzen unter besonderer Berücksichtigung sortenspezifischer Aspekte.-In: MATZARAKIS, A., H. MAYER (Eds.): Proceedings zur 6. Fachtagung BIOMET, Freiburg, 224-228.
18. HENNIGES, Y., I. VOLLMER, R. W. S. WEBER, M. GÖRGENS, F.-M. CHMIELEWSKI, 2007: der Klimawandel, eine Herausforderung für den norddeutschen Obstbau.-Mitteilungen des Obstbauversuchsringes des Alten Landes 62, 147-151.
19. HOLTHUSEN, H. H. F., 2010: Climate change and apple yield. Influence of weather and climate on yield formation. - Master Thesis, Humboldt-University of Berlin, 162 pp.
20. KRAMER, K., 1996: Phenology and growth of European trees in relation to climate change.-PhD Thesis, Agricultural University Wageningen 210 pp.
21. KRAMER, K., I. LEINONEN, D. LOUSTAU, 2000: The importance of phenology for the evaluation of impact of climate change on growth of boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forest ecosystems: an overview.-Int. J. Biometeor. 44, 67-75.
22. LANDSBERG, J. J., 1974: Apple fruit bud development and growth; analysis and an empirical model.-Annals of Botany 28, 1013-1023.
23. LINKOSALO, T., T. CARTER, R. HÄKKINEN, P. HARI, 2000: Predicting spring phenology and frost damage risk of Betula spp. Under climatic warming: a comparison of two models.-Tree Physiol. 20, 1175-1182.
24. LINSLEY-NOAKES, G. C., P. ALLAN, 1994: Comparison of 2 models for the prediction of rest completion in peaches.-Sci. Hort. 59, 107-113. (Pubitemid 2153397)
25. LUEDELING E., M. ZHANG, E. H. GIRVETZ, 2009a: Climatic changes lead to declining winter chill for fruit and nut trees in California during 1950-2099.-PLoS ONE 4, e6166.
26. LUEDELING E., M. BLANKE, J. GEBAUER, 2009b: Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Verfügbarkeit von Kältewirkung (Chilling) für Obstgehölze in Deutschland.-Erwerbs-Obstbau 51, 81-94 (special edition on climate change).
27. MAYER, U. (Ed.), 1997: Growth stages of mono-and dicotyledonous plants. BBCH-Monograph.-Blackwell Wissenschafts-Verlag Berlin, 622 pp.
28. MENZEL, A., 1997: Phänologie von Waldbäumen unter sich ändernden Klimabedingungen. - Forstl. Forschungsberichte, München 147 pp.
29. MURRAY, M. B., G. R. CANNELL, R. I. SMITH, 1989: Date of budburst of fifteen tree species in Britain following climatic warming.-J. Appl. Ecol. 26, 693-700. (Pubitemid 20419515)
30. PRESS, W. H., S. A. TEUKOLSKY, W. T. VETTERLING, B. P. FLANNERY, 1997: Numerical recipes in Fortran 77. The art of scientific computing, second edition. - Cambridge University Press, 994 pp.
31. REA, R., E. ECCEL, 2006: Phenological models for blooming of apple in mountainous region. - Int. J. Biometeor. 51, 1-16. (Pubitemid 44326795)
32. RICHARDSON E. A., S. D. SEELEY, D. R. WALKER, 1974: A model for estimating the completion of rest for 'Redhaven' and 'Elberta' peach trees.-Hortscience 9, 331-332.
33. ROBERTSON, G. W., 1968: A biometeorological time scale for a cereal crop involving day and night temperatures and photoperiod.-Int. J. Biometeor. 12, 191-223.
34. RÖTZER, T., R. GROTE, H. PRETZSCH, 2004: The timing of bud burst and its effect on tree growth.-Int. J. Biometeor. 48, 109-118. (Pubitemid 38398433)
35. RÖTZER, T., M. LEUCHNER, A. J. NUNN, 2010: Simulating stand climate, phenology, and photosynthesis of a forest stand with a process-based growth model.-Int. J. Biometeor. 54, 449-464.
36. RUML, M., A. VUKOVIĆ, D. MILATOVIĆ, 2010: Evaluation of different methods for determining growing degree-day thresholds in apricot cultivars.-Int. J. Biometeor. 54, 411-422.
37. SARVAS, R., 1974: Investigations on the annual cycle of development of forest trees. Autumn dormancy and winter dormancy.-Communicationes Instituti Forestalis Fenniae 84, 1-101.
38. STATISTICAL YEARBOOK, 2010: Statistical Yearbook 2010 for the Federal Republic of Germany, including international tables.-Federal Statistical Office, Wiesbaden, 745 pp.
39. SCHERZER, J., B. SCHULTZE, F.-M. CHMIELEWSKI, Y. HENNIGES, D.-R. EISENHAUER, 2009: Einfluss dynamisierter Vegetationsperioden auf den Wasserhaushalt von Wäldern in Sachsen. - Freiburger Forstliche Forschung 82, 211-219.
40. SCHWARTZ, M. D., 1990: Detecting the onset of spring: A possible application of phenological models.-Climate Res. 1, 23-29.
41. SHALTOUT A. D., C. R. UNRATH, 1983: Rest completion prediction model for 'Starkrimson Delicious' apples.-J. Amer Soc. Hortic Sci. 108, 957-961.
42. VALENTINI, N., G. ME, R. FERRERO, F. SPANNA, 2001: Use of bioclimatic indexes to characterize phenological phases of apple varieties in Northern Italy.-Int. J. Biometeor. 42, 191-195. (Pubitemid 33626752)
43. WEINBERGER, J. H., 1950: Chilling requirements of peach varieties. P. Am. Soc. Hortic. Sci. 56, 122-128
44. WIELGOLASKI, F.-E., 1999: Starting dates and basic temperatures in phenological observations of plants.-Int. J. Biometeor. 42, 158-168. (Pubitemid 129785736)
45. ZAVALLONI, C., J. A. ANDRESEN, J. A. FLORE, 2006: Phenological models of flower bud stages and fruit growth of 'Montnorency' sour cherry based on growing degree day accumulation. - J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 131, 601-607. (Pubitemid 44578752)