Surface ozone-temperature relationships in the eastern US: A monthly climatology for evaluating chemistry-climate models

Atmospheric Environment

Volumn 47, Issue , 2012, Pages 142-153

  Rasmussen, D J ^a   Fiore, A M ^a   Naik, V ^a   Horowitz, L W ^a   McGinnis, S J ^b   Schultz, M G ^c  

^a NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM JÜLICH   (Germany)

Author keywords

Climate; Global climate models; Model evaluation; Ozone; Temperature

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MODEL; AVERAGE VALUES; CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODELS; CLEAN AIR; CLIMATE; CORRELATION COEFFICIENT; GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS LABORATORIES; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; GREAT LAKES; METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES; MODEL EVALUATION; REGIONAL SCALE; SEASONAL VARIATION; SITE-SPECIFIC MEASUREMENT; STATISTICAL APPROACH; SURFACE TEMPERATURES; TEMPERATURE BIAS; US ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY; WARM TEMPERATURES;

AIR QUALITY; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY; LAKES; OZONE; TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENT;

CLIMATE MODELS;

OZONE;

AIR QUALITY; ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATOLOGY; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; MODEL VALIDATION; OZONE; SURFACE TEMPERATURE;

AIR POLLUTION; AIR QUALITY; ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERE; CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COLD; COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS; CORRELATION COEFFICIENT; ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE; FIELD EMISSION; GEOCHEMISTRY; GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS LABORATORY ATMOSPHERIC MODEL VERSION 3; GLOBAL CHEMISTRY CLIMATE MODEL; GLOBAL CLIMATE; METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA; MOLECULAR MODEL; OXYGEN SATURATION; OZONE LAYER; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STRATOSPHERE; SUMMER; SURFACE PROPERTY; TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENT; TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY; UNITED STATES; WEATHER;

GREAT LAKES [NORTH AMERICA]; UNITED STATES;

EID: 84155163176     PISSN: 13522310     EISSN: 18732844     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.11.021     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Austin J., Wilson R.J. Ensemble simulations of the decline and recovery of stratospheric ozone. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2006, 111.
2. Aw J., Kleeman M.J. Evaluating the first-order effect of intraannual temperature variability on urban air pollution. J.-Geophys. Res. 2003, 108:4365.
3. Ayers G.P. Comment on regression analysis of air quality data. Atmos. Environ. 2001, 35:2423-2425.
4. Bernard S.M., Samet J.M., Grambsch A., Ebi K.L., Romieu I. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on air pollution-related health effects in the United States. Environ. Health Perspect. 2001, 109:199-209.
5. Bloomer B.J., Stehr J.W., Piety C.A., Salawitch R.J., Dickerson R.R. Observed relationships of ozone air pollution with temperature and emissions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2009, 36:L09803.
6. Bloomer B.J., Vinnikov K.Y., Dickerson R.R. Changes in seasonal and diurnal cycles of ozone and temperature in the eastern US. Atmos. Environ. 2010, 44:2543-2551.
7. Brühl C., Crutzen P.J. Scenarios of possible changes in atmospheric temperatures and ozone concentrations due to man's activities, estimated with a one-dimensional coupled photochemical climate model. Clim. Dyn. 1988, 2:173-203.
8. Camalier L., Cox W., Dolwick P. The effects of meteorology on ozone in urban areas and their use in assessing ozone trends. Atmos. Environ. 2007, 41:7127-7137.
9. Cantrell C.A. Technical Note: review of methods for linear least-squares fitting of data and application to atmospheric chemistry problems. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2008, 8:5477-5487.
10. Cardelino C.A., Chameides W.L. Natural hydrocarbons, urbanization, and urban ozone. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 1990, 95:13971-13979.
11. Chan E. Regional ground-level ozone trends in the context of meteorological influences across Canada and the eastern United States from 1997 to 2006. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2009, 114.
12. Christensen J.H., Hewitson B., Busuioc A., Chen A., Gao X., Held I., Jones R., Kolli R.K., Kwon W.T., Laprise R., Rueda V.M., Mearns L., Menéndez C.G., Räisänen J., Rinke A., Sarr A., Whetton P. Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
13. Clark T.L., Karl T.R. Application of prognostic meteorological variables to forecasts of daily maximum one-hour ozone concentrations in the Northeastern United States. J.-Appl. Meteorol. 1982, 21:1662-1671.
14. Clarke J.F., Edgerton E.S., Martin B.E. Dry deposition calculations for the clean air status and trends network. Atmos. Environ. 1997, 31:3667-3678.
15. Davis J., Cox W., Reff A., Dolwick P. A-comparison of CMAQ-based and observation-based statistical models relating ozone to meteorological parameters. Atmos. Environ. 2011, 45:3481-3487.
16. Davis J.C. Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology 1986, Wiley, New York. second ed.
17. Dawson J.P., Adams P.J., Pandis S.N. Sensitivity of ozone to summertime climate in the eastern USA: a modeling case study. Atmos. Environ. 2007, 41:1494-1511.
18. Donner L.J., Wyman B.L., Hemler R.S., Horowitz L.W., Ming Y., Zhao M., Golaz J.C., Ginoux P., Lin S.J., Schwarzkopf M.D., Austin J., Alaka G., Cooke W.F., Delworth T.L., Freidenreich S.M., Gordon C.T., Griffies S.M., Held I.M., Hurlin W.J., Klein S.A., Knutson T.R., Langenhorst A.R., Lee H.C., Lin Y., Magi B.I., Malyshev S.L., Milly P.C.D., Naik V., Nath M.J., Pincus R., Ploshay J.J., Ramaswamy V., Seman C.J., Shevliakova E., Sirutis J.J., Stern W.F., Stouffer R.J., Wilson R.J., Winton M., Wittenberg A.T., Zeng F. The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3. J.-Clim. 2011, 24:3484-3519.
19. Eder B.K., Davis J.M., Bloomfield P. A-characterization of the spatiotemporal variability of non-urban ozone concentrations over the eastern United States. Atmos. Environ. Part A. General Top. 1993, 27:2645-2668.
20. Emmons L.K., Walters S., Hess P.G., Lamarque J.F., Pfister G.G., Fillmore D., Granier C., Guenther A., Kinnison D., Laepple T., Orlando J., Tie X., Tyndall G., Wiedinmyer C., Baughcum S.L., Kloster S. Description and evaluation of the model for ozone and related chemical tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4). Geosci. Model Dev. 2010, 3:43-67.
21. Fang Y., Fiore A.M., Horowitz L.W., Levy H., Hu Y., Russell A.G. Sensitivity of the NOy budget over the United States to anthropogenic and lightning NOx in summer. J.-Geophys. Res. 2010, 115:D18312.
22. Fiore A.M., Dentener F.J., Wild O., Cuvelier C., Schultz M.G., Hess P., Textor C., Schulz M., Doherty R.M., Horowitz L.W., MacKenzie I.A., Sanderson M.G., Shindell D.T., Stevenson D.S., Szopa S., Van Dingenen R., Zeng G., Atherton C., Bergmann D., Bey I., Carmichael G., Collins W.J., Duncan B.N., Faluvegi G., Folberth G., Gauss M., Gong S., Hauglustaine D., Holloway T., Isaksen I.S.A., Jacob D.J., Jonson J.E., Kaminski J.W., Keating T.J., Lupu A., Marmer E., Montanaro V., Park R.J., Pitari G., Pringle K.J., Pyle J.A., Schroeder S., Vivanco M.G., Wind P., Wojcik G., Wu S., Zuber A. Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2009, 114.
23. Fiore A.M., Horowitz L.W., Purves D.W., Levy H., Evans M.J., Wang Y.X., Li Q.B., Yantosca R.M. Evaluating the contribution of changes in isoprene emissions to surface ozone trends over the eastern United States. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2005, 110.
24. Fiore A.M., Jacob D.J., Mathur R., Martin R.V. Application of empirical orthogonal functions to evaluate ozone simulations with regional and global models. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2003, 108.
25. Frost G.J., McKeen S.A., Trainer M., Ryerson T.B., Neuman J.A., Roberts J.M., Swanson A., Holloway J.S., Sueper D.T., Fortin T., Parrish D.D., Fehsenfeld F.C., Flocke F., Peckham S.E., Grell G.A., Kowal D., Cartwright J., Auerbach N., Habermann T. Effects of changing power plant NOx emissions on ozone in the eastern United States: proof of concept. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2006, 111.
26. Gego E., Gilliland A., Godowitch J., Rao S.T., Porter P.S., Hogrefe C. Modeling analyses of the effects of changes in nitrogen oxides emissions from the electric power sector on ozone levels in the eastern United States. J.-Air Waste Manage. 2008, 58:580-588.
27. Gego E., Porter P.S., Gilliland A., Rao S.T. Observation-based assessment of the impact of nitrogen oxides emissions reductions on ozone air quality over the eastern United States. J.-Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 2007, 46:994-1008.
28. Gilliland A.B., Hogrefe C., Pinder R.W., Godowitch J.M., Foley K.L., Rao S.T. Dynamic evaluation of regional air quality models: assessing changes in O-3 stemming from changes in emissions and meteorology. Atmos. Environ. 2008, 42:5110-5123.
29. Godowitch J.M., Hogrefe C., Rao S.T. Diagnostic analyses of a regional air quality model: changes in modeled processes affecting ozone and chemical-transport indicators from NOx point source emission reductions. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2008, 113.
30. Guenther A., Karl T., Harley P., Wiedinmyer C., Palmer P.I., Geron C. Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature). Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2006, 6:3181-3210.
31. Guenther A.B., Zimmerman P.R., Harley P.C., Monson R.K., Fall R. Isoprene and Monoterpene emission rate variability - model evaluations and sensitivity analyses. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 1993, 98:12609-12617.
32. Hogrefe C., Lynn B., Civerolo K., Ku J.Y., Rosenthal J., Rosenzweig C., Goldberg R., Gaffin S., Knowlton K., Kinney P.L. Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions. J.-Geophys. Res. 2004, 109:D22301.
33. Horowitz L.W., Fiore A.M., Milly G.P., Cohen R.C., Perring A., Wooldridge P.J., Hess P.G., Emmons L.K., Lamarque J.F. Observational constraints on the chemistry of isoprene nitrates over the eastern United States. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2007, 112.
34. Horowitz L.W., Walters S., Mauzerall D.L., Emmons L.K., Rasch P.J., Granier C., Tie X., Lamarque J.F., Schultz M.G., Tyndall G.S., Orlando J.J., Brasseur G.P. A-global simulation of tropospheric ozone and related tracers: description and evaluation of MOZART, version 2. J.-Geophys. Res. 2003, 108:4784.
35. Ito A., Sillman S., Penner J.E. Global chemical transport model study of ozone response to changes in chemical kinetics and biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to increasing temperatures: sensitivities to isoprene nitrate chemistry and grid resolution. J.-Geophys. Res. 2009, 114:D09301.
36. Jacob D., Horowitz L.W., Munger J.W., Heikes B.G., Dickerson R.R., Artz R.S., Keene W.C. Seasonal transition from NOx- to hydrocarbon-limited conditions for ozone production over the eastern United States in September. J.-Geophys. Res. 1995, 100:9315-9324.
37. Jacob D., Logan J.A., Yevich R.M., Gardner G.M., Spivakovsky C.M., Wofsy S.C., Munger J.W., Sillman S., Prather M.J., Rodgers M.O., Westberg H., Zimmerman P.R. Simulation of summertime ozone over North America. J.-Geophys. Res. 1993, 98:14797-14816.
38. Jacob D., Winner D.A. Effect of climate change on air quality. Atmos. Environ. 2009, 43:51-63.
39. Jaffe D. Relationship between surface and free tropospheric ozone in the Western U.S. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45:432-438.
40. Kanamitsu M., Ebisuzaki W., Woollen J., Yang S.K., Hnilo J.J., Fiorino M., Potter G.L. Ncep-Doe Amip-Ii Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2002, 83:1631-1643.
41. Kleinman L.I. Seasonal dependence of boundary-layer peroxide concentration - the low and high Nox Regimes. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 1991, 96:20721-20733.
42. Klonecki A., Levy H. Tropospheric chemical ozone tendencies in CO-CH4-NOy-H2O system: their sensitivity to variations in environmental parameters and their application to a global chemistry transport model study. J.-Geophys. Res. 1997, 102:21221-21237.
43. Korsog P.E., Wolff G.T. An examination of urban ozone trends in the Northeastern U.S. (1973-1983) using a robust statistical method. Atmos. Environ. Part B. Urban Atmos. 1991, 25:47-57.
44. Kunkel K., Huang H.C., Liang X.Z., Lin J.T., Wuebbles D., Tao Z., Williams A., Caughey M., Zhu J., Hayhoe K. Sensitivity of future ozone concentrations in the northeast USA to regional climate change. Mitigat. Adapt. Strategies Global Change 2008, 13:597-606.
45. Lamarque J.F., Bond T.C., Eyring V., Granier C., Heil A., Klimont Z., Lee D., Liousse C., Mieville A., Owen B., Schultz M.G., Shindell D., Smith S.J., Stehfest E., Van Aardenne J., Cooper O.R., Kainuma M., Mahowald N., McConnell J.R., Naik V., Riahi K., van Vuuren D.P. Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2010, 10:7017-7039.
46. Lamb B., Guenther A., Gay D., Westberg H. A-national inventory of biogenic hydrocarbon emissions. Atmos. Environ. 1987, 21:1695-1705.
47. Lawrence P.J., Chase T.N. Representing a new MODIS consistent land surface in the Community Land Model (CLM 3.0). J.-Geophys. Res. 2007, 112:G01023.
48. Lehman J., Swinton K., Bortnick S., Hamilton C., Baldridge E., Eder B., Cox B. Spatio-temporal characterization of tropospheric ozone across the eastern United States. Atmos. Environ. 2004, 38:4357-4369.
49. Leibensperger E.M., Mickley L.J., Jacob D.J. Sensitivity of US air quality to mid-latitude cyclone frequency and implications of 1980-2006 climate change. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2008, 8:7075-7086.
50. Levy J.I., Carrothers T.J., Tuomisto J.T., Hammitt J.K., Evans J.S. Assessing the public health benefits of reduced ozone concentrations. Environ. Health Persp. 2001, 109:1215-1226.
51. Li Q.B., Jacob D.J., Park R., Wang Y.X., Heald C.L., Hudman R., Yantosca R.M., Martin R.V., Evans M. North American pollution outflow and the trapping of convectively lifted pollution by upper-level anticyclone. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2005, 110.
52. Lin C.Y.C., Jacob D.J., Fiore A.M. Trends in exceedances of the ozone air quality standard in the continental United States, 1980-1998. Atmos. Environ. 2001, 35:3217-3228.
53. Lin X., Trainer M., Liu S.C. On the nonlinearity of the tropospheric ozone production. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 1988, 93:15879-15888.
54. Logan J.A. Nitrogen oxides in the troposphere: global and regional budgets. J.-Geophys. Res. 1983, 88:10785-10807.
55. Logan J.A. Ozone in rural-areas of the United-States. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 1989, 94:8511-8532.
56. Mahmud A., Tyree M., Cayan D., Motallebi N., Kleeman M.J. Statistical downscaling of climate change impacts on ozone concentrations in California. J.-Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:D21103.
57. Maurer E.P., Wood A.W., Adam J.C., Lettenmaier D.P., Nijssen B. A-long-term hydrologically based dataset of land surface fluxes and states for the conterminous United States. J.-Clim. 2002, 15:3237-3251.
58. Meinshausen M., Smith S., Calvin K., Daniel J.S., Kainuma M.L.T., Lamarque J.F., Matsumoto K., Montzka S.A., Raper S.C.B., Riahi K., Thomson A.M., Velders G.J.M., van Vuuren D. The RCP Greenhouse Gas concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Change 2011.
59. Meleux F., Solmon F., Giorgi F. Increase in summer European ozone amounts due to climate change. Atmos. Environ. 2007, 41:7577-7587.
60. Mesinger F., DiMego G., Kalnay E., Mitchell K., Shafran P.C., Ebisuzaki W., Jović D.A., Woollen J., Rogers E., Berbery E.H., Ek M.B., Fan Y., Grumbine R., Higgins W., Li H., Lin Y., Manikin G., Parrish D., Shi W. North American regional reanalysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2006, 87:343-360.
61. Murazaki K., Hess P. How does climate change contribute to surface ozone change over the United States?. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2006, 111.
62. National Research Council (U.S.), Committee on Tropospheric Ozone Formation and Measurement Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution 1991, National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
63. Nolte C.G., Gilliland A.B., Hogrefe C., Mickley L.J. Linking global to regional models to assess future climate impacts on surface ozone levels in the United States. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2008, 113.
64. Olszyna K.J., Luria M., Meagher J.F. The correlation of temperature and rural ozone levels in southeastern USA. Atmos. Environ. 1997, 31:3011-3022.
65. Putman W.M., Lin S.J. Finite-volume transport on various cubed-sphere grids. J.-Comput. Phys. 2007, 227:55-78.
66. Racherla P.N., Adams P.J. Sensitivity of global tropospheric ozone and fine particulate matter concentrations to climate change. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2006, 111.
67. Rayner N.A., Parker D.E., Horton E.B., Folland C.K., Alexander L.V., Rowell D.P., Kent E.C., Kaplan A. Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J.-Geophys. Res. 2003, 108:4407.
68. Reidmiller D.R., Fiore A.M., Jaffe D.A., Bergmann D., Cuvelier C., Dentener F.J., Duncan B.N., Folberth G., Gauss M., Gong S., Hess P., Jonson J.E., Keating T., Lupu A., Marmer E., Park R., Schultz M.G., Shindell D.T., Szopa S., Vivanco M.G., Wild O., Zuber A. The influence of foreign vs. North American emissions on surface ozone in the US. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2009, 9:5027-5042.
69. Sheffield J., Goteti G., Wood E.F. Development of a 50-year high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcings for land surface modeling. J.-Clim. 2006, 19:3088-3111.
70. Shevliakova E., Pacala S.W., Malyshev S., Hurtt G.C., Milly P.C.D., Caspersen J.P., Sentman L.T., Fisk J.P., Wirth C., Crevoisier C. Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: importance of the secondary vegetation sink. Global Biogeochem. Cyc. 2009, 23.
71. Sillman S., Samson P.J. Impact of temperature on oxidant photochemistry in urban, polluted rural and remote environments. J.-Geophys. Res. 1995, 100:11497-11508.
72. Steiner A.L., Davis A.J., Sillman S., Owen R.C., Michalak A.M., Fiore A.M. Observed suppression of ozone formation at extremely high temperatures due to chemical and biophysical feedbacks. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2010, 107:19685-19690.
73. Steiner A.L., Tonse S., Cohen R.C., Goldstein A.H., Harley R.A. Influence of future climate and emissions on regional air quality in California. J.-Geophys. Res. 2006, 111:D18303.
74. Vukovich F.M. Regional-scale boundary-layer ozone variations in the eastern United-States and their association with meteorological variations. Atmos. Environ. 1995, 29:2259-2273.
75. Weaver C.P., Cooter E., Gilliam R., Gilliland A., Grambsch A., Grano D., Hemming B., Hunt S.W., Nolte C., Winner D.A., Liang X.Z., Zhu J., Caughey M., Kunkel K., Lin J.T., Tao Z., Williams A., Wuebbles D.J., Adams P.J., Dawson J.P., Amar P., He S., Avise J., Chen J., Cohen R.C., Goldstein A.H., Harley R.A., Steiner A.L., Tonse S., Guenther A., Lamarque J.F., Wiedinmyer C., Gustafson W.I., Leung L.R., Hogrefe C., Huang H.C., Jacob D.J., Mickley L.J., Wu S., Kinney P.L., Lamb B., Larkin N.K., McKenzie D., Liao K.J., Manomaiphiboon K., Russell A.G., Tagaris E., Lynn B.H., Mass C., Salathé E., O'Neill S.M., Pandis S.N., Racherla P.N., Rosenzweig C., Woo J.H. A-preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 2009, 90:1843-1863.
76. Wilks D.S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences 2006, Academic Press, Amsterdam, Boston. second ed.
77. Wu S., Mickley L.J., Jacob D.J., Logan J.A., Yantosca R.M., Rind D. Why are there large differences between models in global budgets of tropospheric ozone?. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2007, 112.
78. Wu S., Mickley L.J., Leibensperger E.M., Jacob D.J., Rind D., Streets D.G. Effects of 2000-2050 global change on ozone air quality in the United States. J.-Geophys. Res. 2008, 113:D06302.
79. Wunderli S., Gehrig R. Influence of temperature on formation and stability of surface pan and ozone - a 2-year field-study in Switzerland. Atmos. Environ. Part A. General Top. 1991, 25:1599-1608.
80. Yienger J.J., Levy H. Empirical-model of global soil-biogenic Nox emissions. J.-Geophys. Res. Atmos. 1995, 100:11447-11464.