The evolution of election polling in the United States

Public Opinion Quarterly

Volumn 75, Issue 5 SPEC. ISSUE, 2011, Pages 962-981

  Hillygus, D Sunshine ^a  

^a DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 84055188787     PISSN: 0033362X     EISSN: 15375331     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfr054     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Abramowitz, Alan. 2004. "When Good Forecasts Go Bad: The Time-for-Change Model and the 2004 Presidential Election." PS: Political Science and Politics 3(74):745-46. (Pubitemid 39498940)
2. Bafumi, Joseph, Robert S. Erikson, and Christopher Wlezien. 2010. "Ideological Balancing, Generic Polls, and Midterm Congressional Elections." Journal of Politics 72:705-19.
3. Bartels, Larry. 2010. "The Study of Electoral Behavior." In The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior, edited by Jan E. Leighley. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
4. Belknap, George, and Angus Campbell. 1951. "Party Identification and Attitudes Toward Foreign Policy." Public Opinion Quarterly 15:601-23.
5. Belli, Robert F., Michael W. Traugott, Margaret Young, and Katherine A. McGonagle. 1999. "Reducing Vote Overreporting in Surveys." Public Opinion Quarterly 63:90-108.
6. Berg, Joyce, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz. 2001. "Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Market Research." In Handbook of Experimental Economic Results, edited by Charles Plott and Vernon Smith, 742-51. Amsterdam: Elsevier.
7. Bernstein, Robert, Anita Chadha, and Robert Montjoy. 2001. "Overreporting Voting: Why It Happens and Why It Matters." Public Opinion Quarterly 65:22-44.
8. Blumenthal, Mark. 2005. "Toward an Open-Source Methodology: What We Can Learn from the Blogosphere." Public Opinion Quarterly 69(5):655-69. (Pubitemid 43007145)
9. -2008. "NCPP's Report on Pollster Performance." Pollster, http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ ncpps-report-on'pollster'perfo.php?nr=1.
10. Burden, Barry. 2000. "Voter Turnout and the National Election Studies." Political Analysis 8:389-98.
11. -2008. "The Social Roots of the Partisan Gender Gap." Public Opinion Quarterly 72:55-75.
12. Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
13. Converse, Jean. 1987. Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1890-1960. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.
14. Converse, Philip. 1962. "Information Flow and Stability of Partisan Attitudes." Public Opinion Quarterly 26(4):578-99.
15. -1987. "Changing Conceptions of Public Opinion in the Political Process." Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 51, Part 2: Supplement: 50th-Anniversary Issue: S12-24.
16. Crespi, Irving. 1988. Pre-Election Polling: Sources of Accuracy and Error. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.
17. Crespi, Irving, and Dwight Morris. 1984. "Question Order Effect and the Measurement of Candidate Preference in the 1982 Connecticut Elections." Public Opinion Quarterly 48:578-91.
18. Crossley, Archibald M. 1937. "Straw Polls in 1936." Public Opinion Quarterly 1(January):24-35.
19. Dalton, Russell, and Martin Wattenberg. 1993. "The Not So Simple Act of Voting." In The State of the Discipline, edited by Ada Finifter. American Political Science Association: Washington, DC.
20. Durand, Claire, Andre Blais, and Mylene Larochelle. 2004. "The Polls in the 2002 French Presidential Election." Public Opinion Quarterly 68:602-22.
21. Druckman, James, Donald Green, James Kuklinski, and Arthur Lupia. 2006. "The Growth and Development of Experimental Research in Political Science." American Political Science Review 100:627-35.
22. Druckman, James, and Larry R. Jacobs. 2006. "Lumpers and Splitters: The Public Opinion Information That Politicians Collect and Use." Public Opinion Quarterly 70(4):453-76. (Pubitemid 44870725)
23. Eisinger, Robert M. 2003. The Evolution of Presidential Polling. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
24. Erikson, Robert S., Costas Panagopoulos, and Christopher Wlezien. 2004. "Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics." Public Opinion Quarterly 68(4):588-601. (Pubitemid 39519280)
25. Erikson, Robert S., and Christopher Wlezien. 2008. "Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictions?" Public Opinion Quarterly 72:190-215.
26. Fair, Ray C. 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President." Review of Economics and Statistics 60(April):159-73.
27. Fenwick, Ian, Frederick Wiseman, John Becker, and James Heiman. 1982. "Classifying Undecided Voters in Pre-Election Polls." Public Opinion Quarterly 46:383-91.
28. Fiorina, Morris. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
29. Gelman, Andrew, and Gary King. 1993. "Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls So Variable When Votes Are So Predictable?" British Journal of Political Science 23(October):409-51.
30. Gerber, Alan S., and Donald P. Green. 2001. "Do Phone Calls Increase Voter Turnout? A Field Experiment." Public Opinion Quarterly 65:75-85.
31. Greene, Jay P. 1993. "Forewarned Before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992 Election." Political Science and Politics 26:17-21.
32. Groves, Robert M., Floyd J. Fowler, Mick P. Couper, James M. Lepkowski, and Eleanor Singer. 2009. Survey Methodology. 2nd ed. Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley and Sons.
33. Herbst, Susan. 1993. Numbered Voices: How Opinion Polling Has Shaped American Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
34. Herron, Michael C., James Lavin, Donald Cram, and Jay Silver. 1999. "Measurement of Political Effects in the United States Economy: A Study of the 1992 Presidential Election." Economics and Politics 11:51-81.
35. Hillygus, D. Sunshine, and Todd Shields. 2008. The Persuadable Voter. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
36. Hoek, Janet, and Philip Gendall. 1997. "Factors Affecting Poll Accuracy: An Analysis of Undecided Respondents." Marketing Bulletin 8:1-14.
37. Holbrook, Allyson, Melanie C. Green, and Jon A. Krosnick. 2003. Telephone versus Face-to-Face Interviewing of National Probability Samples with Long Questionnaires: Comparisons of Respondent Satisficing and Social Desirability Response Bias." Public Opinion Quarterly 67:79-125.
38. Holbrook, Thomas, and Jay DeSart. 1999. "Using State Polls to Forecast Presidential Election Outcomes in American States." International Journal of Forecasting 15:137-42.
39. Holbrook, Thomas M. 2004. "Good News for Bush? Economic News, Personal Finances, and the 2004 Presidential Election." Political Science and Politics 37(4):759-61. (Pubitemid 39498943)
40. Hopkins, Daniel J. 2009. "No More Wilder Effect, Never a Whitman Effect: Why and When Polls Mislead About Black and Female Candidates." Journal of Politics 71(3):769-81.
41. Huber, Greg, and Kevin Arceneaux. 2007. "Identifying the Persuasive Effects of Presidential Advertising." American Journal of Political Science 51(4):957-77.
42. Iyengar, Shanto, and Donald R. Kinder. 1987. News That Matters: Television and American Opinion. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
43. Jackman, Simon. 2005. "Pooling the Polls over an Election Campaign." Australian Journal of Political Science 40(4):499-517. (Pubitemid 44576479)
44. Jackson, John E. 1975. "Issues, Party Choices, and Presidential Votes." American Journal of Political Science 19:161-85.
45. Jacobs, Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro. 1995. "The Rise of Presidential Polling: The Nixon White House in Historical Perspective." Public Opinion Quarterly 59:163-95.
46. -2005. "Polling Politics, Media, and Election Campaigns." Public Opinion Quarterly 69(Special Issue No. 5):635-41.
47. Johnston, Richard, Andre Blais, Henry E. Brady, and Jean Crete. 1992. Letting the People Decide: Dynamics of a Canadian Election. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
48. Kernell, Samuel. 2000. "Life Before Polls: Ohio Politicians Predict the Presidential Vote." Political Science and Politics 33:569-74.
49. King, Gary. 2009. "The Changing Evidence Base of Social Science Research." In The Future of Political Science: 100 Perspectives, edited by Gary King, Kay Schlozman, Norman Nie. New York: Routledge Press.
50. Krysan, Maria. 1998. "Privacy and the Expression of White Racial Attitudes: A Comparison Across Three Contexts." Public Opinion Quarterly 62:506-44. (Pubitemid 128370947)
51. Lau, Richard R. 1994. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of 'Trial Heat' Polls in the 1992 Presidential Election." Public Opinion Quarterly 58(Spring):2-20.
52. Lewis-Beck, Michael. 2005. "Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice." British Journal of Political Science 7(2):145-64. (Pubitemid 40595138)
53. Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Charles Tien. 1999. "Voters as Forecasters: A Micromodel of Election Prediction." International Journal of Forecasting 15:175-84.
54. -2004. "Jobs and the Job of President: A Forecast for 2004." Political Science and Politics 37(4):753-58.
55. Linzer, Drew. 2011. "Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States." Working Paper, Emory University.
56. Martin, Elizabeth A., Michael W. Traugott, and Courtney Kennedy. 2005. "A Review and Proposal for a New Measure of Poll Accuracy." Public Opinion Quarterly 69(Autumn):342-69. (Pubitemid 41343770)
57. Mathiowetz, Nancy. 1992. "Errors in Reports of Occupations." Public Opinion Quarterly 56:352-55.
58. Meredith, Marc. 2009. "Persistence in Political Participation." Quarterly Journal of Political Science 4(3):186-208.
59. McComb, Maxwell, and Donald Shaw. 1972. "Agenda-Setting Function of Mass Media." Public Opinion Quarterly 36:176-87.
60. Mokrzycki, Michael, Scott Keeter, and Courtney Kennedy. 2009. "Cell-Phone-Only Voters in the 2008 Exit Polls and Implications for Future Noncoverage Bias." Public Opinion Quarterly 73(5):845-65.
61. Mosteller, Frederick, H. Hyman, P. McCarthy, E. Marks, and D. Truman. 1949. The Pre-Election Polls of 1948: Report to the Committee on Analysis of Pre-Election Polls and Forecasts. New York: Social Science Research Council.
62. Page, Benjamin I., and Richard A. Brody. 1972. "Policy Voting and the Electoral Process: The Vietnam Issue." American Political Science Review 66:979-95.
63. Panagopolous, Costas. 2009. "Polls and Elections: Pre-Election Accuracy in the 2008 General Elections." Presidential Studies Quarterly 39(December):896-907.
64. Prior, Markus. 2009. "The Immensely Inflated News Audience: Assessing Bias in Self-Reported News Exposure." Public Opinion Quarterly 73(1):130-43.
65. Rhode, Paul W., and Koleman S. Strumpf. 2004. "Historic Presidential Betting Markets." Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(Spring):127-42.
66. Rigdon, S. E., S. H. Jacobson, W. K. T. Cho, E. C. Sewell, and C. J. Rigdon. 2009. "A Bayesian Prediction Model for the U.S. Presidential Election." American Politics Research 37:700-24.
67. Rosenstiel, Tom. 2005. "Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less." Public Opinion Quarterly 69(5):698-715. (Pubitemid 43007148)
68. Rothschild, David. 2009. "Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and Their Biases." Public Opinion Quarterly 73(5):895-916.
69. Rothschild, David, and Justin Wolfers. 2010. "Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations." Working Paper, University of Pennsylvania, http://assets.wharton.upenn.edu/ ;rothscdm/RothschildExpectations. pdf.
70. Silver, Nate. 2008. "Debunking the Bradley Effect." Newsweek, October 28.
71. -. 2009. "The Worst Pollster in the World Strikes Again." FiveThirtyEight.com, March 24. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/03/worst- pollster-in-world-strikes-again.html.
72. Smith, Tom W. 1990. "The First Straw? A Study of the Origins of Election Polls." Public Opinion Quarterly 54(1):21-36.
73. Squire, Peverill. 1988. "Why the Literary Digest Failed." Public Opinion Quarterly 52:125-33.
74. Traugott, Michael. 2005. "The Accuracy of the National Pre-Election Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election." Public Opinion Quarterly 65(5):642-54. (Pubitemid 43007144)
75. Traugott, Michael, Glenn Bolger, Darren W. Davis, Charles Franklin, Robert M. Groves, Paul J. Lavrakas, Mark S. Mellman, Philip Meyer, Kristen Olson, J. Ann Selzer, and Chris Wlezien. 2009. "An Evaluation of the Methodology of the 2008 Pre-Election Primary Polls." AAPOR Ad Hoc Committee on the 2008 Presidential Polling.
76. Vavreck, Lynn. 2009. The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
77. Wand, Jonathan, Kenneth Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Michael Herron, and Henry E. Brady. 2001. "The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida." American Political Science Review 95:793-810. (Pubitemid 33571343)
78. Wlezien, Christopher, and Robert S. Erikson. 2002. "The Timeline of Presidential Election Campaigns." Journal of Politics 64(4):969-93.