Revolution, war, and security

Security Studies

Volumn 6, Issue 2, 1996, Pages 127-151

  Goldstone, Jack A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 8344226867     PISSN: 09636412     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09636419608429308     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Stephen M. Walt, Revolution and War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996). References to Walt's book are given in the text, enclosed in parentheses.
2. This example, and the theory embodied in this paragraph, are developed in detail in my Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1991).
3. Ted Robert Gurr, "War, Revolution, and the Growth of the Coercive State," Comparative Political Studies 21, no. 1 (April 1988): 45-65.
4. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
5. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
6. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
7. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
8. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
9. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
10. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
11. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
12. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
13. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
14. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
15. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
16. In the study of revolution, representative statistical analyses are those of Ted Robert Gurr, "A Causal Model of Civil Strife: A Comparative Analysis Using New Indices," American Political Science Review 68, no. 4 (December 1968): 1482-504; I. K. Feierabend and R. L Feierabend, "Aggressive Behaviors within Polities, 1948-1962: A Cross-National Study," Journal of Conflict Resolution 10, no. 3 (September 1966): 249-71; Douglas A. Hibbs, Mass Political Violence: A Cross-national Causal Analysis (New York: Wiley, 1973); Terry Boswell and William J. Dixon, "Dependency and Rebellion: A Cross-National Analysis," American Sociological Review 55, no. 4 (August 1990): 540-60; and Boswell and Dixon, "Marx's Theory of Rebellion: a Cross-National Analysis of Class Exploitation, Economic Development, and Violent Revolt," American Sociological Review 58, no. 3 (October 1993): 681-703. The number of revolutions being relatively few, however, case-study analyses have been more numerous and more important, such as those of Barrington Moore Jr., Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Boston: Beacon, 1966); Charles Tilly, Louise Tilly, and Richard Tilly, The Rebellious Century, 1830-1930 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1975); Theda Skocpol, States and Social Revolutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1979); and Goldstone, Revolution and Rebellion. The reverse is true in the study of war, where cases are numerous, and statistical studies have been more common, building on the data collected by Melvin Small and J. David Singer, in particular Small and Singer, Resort to Arms (Beverly Hills: Sage, 1982). Case studies of war and diplomacy, however, have also been important, such as those of Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain and Germany between the Wars (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984); Robert Jervis, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein, eds., Psychology and Deterrence (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1985); Alexander L. George, Bridging the Gap: Theory and Practice in Foreign Policy (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Institute of Peace Press, 1993); and Stephen M. Walt, The Origins of Alliances (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.)
17. Rational choice studies of war were first applied to issues of nuclear deterrence, as in Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). The approach has recently been extended to empirical studies of the outbreak of conventional wars in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1982). Studies of revolution that use rational choice models to confront empirical data include Edward N. Muller and Karl-Dieter Opp, "Rational Choice and Rebellious Collective Action," American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 472-87; Edward N. Muller and Erich Weede, "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach," Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 624-51; and Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest (Boulder: Westview 1989).
18. Rational choice studies of war were first applied to issues of nuclear deterrence, as in Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). The approach has recently been extended to empirical studies of the outbreak of conventional wars in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1982). Studies of revolution that use rational choice models to confront empirical data include Edward N. Muller and Karl-Dieter Opp, "Rational Choice and Rebellious Collective Action," American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 472-87; Edward N. Muller and Erich Weede, "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach," Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 624-51; and Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest (Boulder: Westview 1989).
19. Rational choice studies of war were first applied to issues of nuclear deterrence, as in Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). The approach has recently been extended to empirical studies of the outbreak of conventional wars in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1982). Studies of revolution that use rational choice models to confront empirical data include Edward N. Muller and Karl-Dieter Opp, "Rational Choice and Rebellious Collective Action," American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 472-87; Edward N. Muller and Erich Weede, "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach," Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 624-51; and Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest (Boulder: Westview 1989).
20. Rational choice studies of war were first applied to issues of nuclear deterrence, as in Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). The approach has recently been extended to empirical studies of the outbreak of conventional wars in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1982). Studies of revolution that use rational choice models to confront empirical data include Edward N. Muller and Karl-Dieter Opp, "Rational Choice and Rebellious Collective Action," American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 472-87; Edward N. Muller and Erich Weede, "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach," Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 624-51; and Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest (Boulder: Westview 1989).
21. Rational choice studies of war were first applied to issues of nuclear deterrence, as in Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). The approach has recently been extended to empirical studies of the outbreak of conventional wars in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1982). Studies of revolution that use rational choice models to confront empirical data include Edward N. Muller and Karl-Dieter Opp, "Rational Choice and Rebellious Collective Action," American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 472-87; Edward N. Muller and Erich Weede, "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach," Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 624-51; and Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest (Boulder: Westview 1989).
22. Rational choice studies of war were first applied to issues of nuclear deterrence, as in Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966). The approach has recently been extended to empirical studies of the outbreak of conventional wars in Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, The War Trap (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1981); and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and David Lalman, War and Reason (New Haven, Yale University Press, 1982). Studies of revolution that use rational choice models to confront empirical data include Edward N. Muller and Karl-Dieter Opp, "Rational Choice and Rebellious Collective Action," American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 472-87; Edward N. Muller and Erich Weede, "Cross-National Variation in Political Violence: A Rational Action Approach," Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 624-51; and Karl-Dieter Opp, The Rationality of Political Protest (Boulder: Westview 1989).
23. Charles Ragin, The Comparative Method (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Barbara Geddes, "How the Cases you Choose Affect the Answers you Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics," Political Analysis 2 (1990): 141-43; Stanley Lieberson, "Small Ns and Big Conclusions: An Examination of Reasoning in Comparative Studies Based on a Small Number of N's," Social Forces 70, no. 12 (December 1991): 307-20; John H. Goldthorpe, Current Issues in Comparative Macrosociology, ISO Rapport no. 6 (Oslo: Department of Sociology, University of Oslo, 1994); Jack A. Goldstone "Methodological Issues in Comparative Macrosociology," Comparative Social Research (forthcoming 1996); and Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).
24. Charles Ragin, The Comparative Method (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Barbara Geddes, "How the Cases you Choose Affect the Answers you Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics," Political Analysis 2 (1990): 141-43; Stanley Lieberson, "Small Ns and Big Conclusions: An Examination of Reasoning in Comparative Studies Based on a Small Number of N's," Social Forces 70, no. 12 (December 1991): 307-20; John H. Goldthorpe, Current Issues in Comparative Macrosociology, ISO Rapport no. 6 (Oslo: Department of Sociology, University of Oslo, 1994); Jack A. Goldstone "Methodological Issues in Comparative Macrosociology," Comparative Social Research (forthcoming 1996); and Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).
25. Charles Ragin, The Comparative Method (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Barbara Geddes, "How the Cases you Choose Affect the Answers you Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics," Political Analysis 2 (1990): 141-43; Stanley Lieberson, "Small Ns and Big Conclusions: An Examination of Reasoning in Comparative Studies Based on a Small Number of N's," Social Forces 70, no. 12 (December 1991): 307-20; John H. Goldthorpe, Current Issues in Comparative Macrosociology, ISO Rapport no. 6 (Oslo: Department of Sociology, University of Oslo, 1994); Jack A. Goldstone "Methodological Issues in Comparative Macrosociology," Comparative Social Research (forthcoming 1996); and Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).
26. Charles Ragin, The Comparative Method (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Barbara Geddes, "How the Cases you Choose Affect the Answers you Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics," Political Analysis 2 (1990): 141-43; Stanley Lieberson, "Small Ns and Big Conclusions: An Examination of Reasoning in Comparative Studies Based on a Small Number of N's," Social Forces 70, no. 12 (December 1991): 307-20; John H. Goldthorpe, Current Issues in Comparative Macrosociology, ISO Rapport no. 6 (Oslo: Department of Sociology, University of Oslo, 1994); Jack A. Goldstone "Methodological Issues in Comparative Macrosociology," Comparative Social Research (forthcoming 1996); and Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).
27. Charles Ragin, The Comparative Method (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Barbara Geddes, "How the Cases you Choose Affect the Answers you Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics," Political Analysis 2 (1990): 141-43; Stanley Lieberson, "Small Ns and Big Conclusions: An Examination of Reasoning in Comparative Studies Based on a Small Number of N's," Social Forces 70, no. 12 (December 1991): 307-20; John H. Goldthorpe, Current Issues in Comparative Macrosociology, ISO Rapport no. 6 (Oslo: Department of Sociology, University of Oslo, 1994); Jack A. Goldstone "Methodological Issues in Comparative Macrosociology," Comparative Social Research (forthcoming 1996); and Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).
28. Charles Ragin, The Comparative Method (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Barbara Geddes, "How the Cases you Choose Affect the Answers you Get: Selection Bias in Comparative Politics," Political Analysis 2 (1990): 141-43; Stanley Lieberson, "Small Ns and Big Conclusions: An Examination of Reasoning in Comparative Studies Based on a Small Number of N's," Social Forces 70, no. 12 (December 1991): 307-20; John H. Goldthorpe, Current Issues in Comparative Macrosociology, ISO Rapport no. 6 (Oslo: Department of Sociology, University of Oslo, 1994); Jack A. Goldstone "Methodological Issues in Comparative Macrosociology," Comparative Social Research (forthcoming 1996); and Gary King, Robert O. Keohane, and Sidney Verba, Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994).
29. Alexander L. George and Timothy J. McKeown, "Case Studies and Theories of Organizational Decision-Making," in Advances in Information Processing in Organizations, ed. Robert F. Coulam and Richard A. Smith, vol. 2 (Greenwich, Conn.: JAI Press, 1985), 21-58.
30. This often appears in the work of Charles Tilly, for example, Coercion, Capital and European States 990-1990 (Oxford: Blackwell 1990); and European Revolutions 1492-1992 (Oxford: Blackwell, 1993); and is explicit in Skocpol's view that international pressures (usually military) from more advanced capitalist states are a general and fundamental cause of revolutions. Skocpol makes it clear that war does not always cause revolutions, for it only does so in structurally vulnerable states. Yet as her only three cases of social revolutions are all triggered, in her view, by war, she has no examples of revolutions arising without war. Thus, while Skocpol is clear that wars do not always cause revolutions, she makes the converse error of arguing that social revolutions are always caused in part by war.
31. This often appears in the work of Charles Tilly, for example, Coercion, Capital and European States 990-1990 (Oxford: Blackwell 1990); and European Revolutions 1492-1992 (Oxford: Blackwell, 1993); and is explicit in Skocpol's view that international pressures (usually military) from more advanced capitalist states are a general and fundamental cause of revolutions. Skocpol makes it clear that war does not always cause revolutions, for it only does so in structurally vulnerable states. Yet as her only three cases of social revolutions are all triggered, in her view, by war, she has no examples of revolutions arising without war. Thus, while Skocpol is clear that wars do not always cause revolutions, she makes the converse error of arguing that social revolutions are always caused in part by war.
32. See the summary of more than a decade of statistical analysis in Michael Stohl, "The Nexus of Civil and International Conflict," in Handbook of Political Conflict, ed. Ted Robert Gurr (New York: Free Press, 1970), 297-330.
33. "War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review 6, no. 3 (September 1992): 638-46.
34. For an excellent reflection on the difficulties of unravelling the paradox of opposite results of case-studies and large-n statistical studies, this time with regard to the origins and stabilization of democratic regimes, see Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Evelyne Huber Stephens, and John D. Stephens, Capitalist Development and Democracy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992).
35. Charles Ragins' method of Boolean, multivariable case-based analysis (see Ragin, The Comparative Method) is ideal for finding and indentifying conjunctural causation. It is, however, weak in finding path-dependent causation, which requires a temporal and sometimes narrative dimension (see William H. Sewell Jr., "Three Temporalities: Toward an Eventful Sociology," in The Historic Turn in the Human Sciences, ed. Terrence J. MacDonald [Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, forthcoming]).
36. Another outstanding study of revolutions, in this instance in Latin America, also uses both temporal and geographic variation to provide about two dozen cases for close study: Timothy Wickham-Crowley, Guerrillas and Revolution in Latin America (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1992).
37. Theda Skocpol, "Social Revolutions and Mass Military Mobilization," World Politics 40, no. 2 (January 1988): 147-68.
38. Another worthwhile effort to leaven neorealism with a liberal view of the importance of domestic regime structures, applied more generally to understanding international regimes, is John A. Hall, International Orders (Cambridge: Polity, 1996).
39. For a sample of this debate, see Judith Devlin, The Rise of the Russian Democrats: The Causes and Consequences of the Elite Revolutions (Aldershot, U.K.: Edward Elgar, 1995); Michael McFaul, "State Power, Institutional Change, and the Politics of Privatization in Russia," World Politics 47, no. 2 (January 1995): 210-44; David Lane, "The Gorbachev Revolution: The Role of the Political Elite in Regime Disintegration," Political Studies 44, no. 1 (March 1996): 4-23; and Lilia Shevtsova, "Russia's Post-Communist Politics: Revolution or Continuity?" in The New Russia: Troubled Transformation, ed. Gail Lapidus (Boulder Westview, 1995), 5-36.
40. For a sample of this debate, see Judith Devlin, The Rise of the Russian Democrats: The Causes and Consequences of the Elite Revolutions (Aldershot, U.K.: Edward Elgar, 1995); Michael McFaul, "State Power, Institutional Change, and the Politics of Privatization in Russia," World Politics 47, no. 2 (January 1995): 210-44; David Lane, "The Gorbachev Revolution: The Role of the Political Elite in Regime Disintegration," Political Studies 44, no. 1 (March 1996): 4-23; and Lilia Shevtsova, "Russia's Post-Communist Politics: Revolution or Continuity?" in The New Russia: Troubled Transformation, ed. Gail Lapidus (Boulder Westview, 1995), 5-36.
41. For a sample of this debate, see Judith Devlin, The Rise of the Russian Democrats: The Causes and Consequences of the Elite Revolutions (Aldershot, U.K.: Edward Elgar, 1995); Michael McFaul, "State Power, Institutional Change, and the Politics of Privatization in Russia," World Politics 47, no. 2 (January 1995): 210-44; David Lane, "The Gorbachev Revolution: The Role of the Political Elite in Regime Disintegration," Political Studies 44, no. 1 (March 1996): 4-23; and Lilia Shevtsova, "Russia's Post-Communist Politics: Revolution or Continuity?" in The New Russia: Troubled Transformation, ed. Gail Lapidus (Boulder Westview, 1995), 5-36.
42. For a sample of this debate, see Judith Devlin, The Rise of the Russian Democrats: The Causes and Consequences of the Elite Revolutions (Aldershot, U.K.: Edward Elgar, 1995); Michael McFaul, "State Power, Institutional Change, and the Politics of Privatization in Russia," World Politics 47, no. 2 (January 1995): 210-44; David Lane, "The Gorbachev Revolution: The Role of the Political Elite in Regime Disintegration," Political Studies 44, no. 1 (March 1996): 4-23; and Lilia Shevtsova, "Russia's Post-Communist Politics: Revolution or Continuity?" in The New Russia: Troubled Transformation, ed. Gail Lapidus (Boulder Westview, 1995), 5-36.
43. Jack A. Goldstone, "Theories of Revolution, Elite Crisis, and the Collapse of the U.S.S.R.," in Regime Transformations and Elite Crises, ed. John Higley and Mattei Dogan (forthcoming).
44. This interpretation of events in drawn from John B. Dunlop, The Rise of Russia and the Fall of the Soviet Empire (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); Marc Garcelon, "Democrats and Apparatchniks: The Democratic Russia Movement and the Specialist Movement in Moscow" (Ph.D. diss., University of California-Berkeley, 1995); and Thomas Remington, "Regime Transitions in Communist Systems: The Soviet Case," Soviet Economy 6, no. 2 (April-June 1990): 160-90.
45. This interpretation of events in drawn from John B. Dunlop, The Rise of Russia and the Fall of the Soviet Empire (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); Marc Garcelon, "Democrats and Apparatchniks: The Democratic Russia Movement and the Specialist Movement in Moscow" (Ph.D. diss., University of California-Berkeley, 1995); and Thomas Remington, "Regime Transitions in Communist Systems: The Soviet Case," Soviet Economy 6, no. 2 (April-June 1990): 160-90.
46. This interpretation of events in drawn from John B. Dunlop, The Rise of Russia and the Fall of the Soviet Empire (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993); Marc Garcelon, "Democrats and Apparatchniks: The Democratic Russia Movement and the Specialist Movement in Moscow" (Ph.D. diss., University of California-Berkeley, 1995); and Thomas Remington, "Regime Transitions in Communist Systems: The Soviet Case," Soviet Economy 6, no. 2 (April-June 1990): 160-90.
47. Crane Brinton, The Anatomy of Revolutions, 2nd exp. ed. (New York: Vintage, 1965).
48. See Jack A. Goldstone, "The Coming Chinese Collapse," Foreign Policy, no 99 (summer 1995): 35-52.