Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change

Environmental Science and Policy

Volumn 15, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 136-144

  Vermeulen, S J ^a,b   Aggarwal, P K ^a,c   Ainslie, A ^d   Angelone, C ^e   Campbell, B M ^a,f   Challinor, A J ^a,g   Hansen, J W ^a,h   Ingram, J S I ⁱ   Jarvis, A ^a,j   Kristjanson, P ^a,k   Lau, C ^j   Nelson, G C ^a,l   Thornton, P K ^a,f   Wollenberg, E ^a,e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^c INTERNATIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE   (Sri Lanka)

^d OXFORD BROOKES UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^e UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT   (United States)

^f INTERNATIONAL LIVESTOCK RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Kenya)

^g UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

^h Earth Institute   (United States)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD   (United Kingdom)

^j INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR TROPICAL AGRICULTURE CIAT   (Colombia)

^k WORLD AGROFORESTRY CENTRE ICRAF   (Kenya)

^l INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (United States)

more..

Author keywords

Adaptation; Agriculture; Climate change; Food security; Livelihoods; Mitigation

Indexed keywords

AGRICULTURAL LAND; AGRICULTURE; AGRONOMY; AQUACULTURE; CATERING SERVICE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CROP; ECONOMIC ASPECT; GREENHOUSE GAS; PLANT BREEDING; POLICY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 83255193993     PISSN: 14629011     EISSN: 18736416     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2011.09.003     Document Type: Review

References (70)

1. Abdulai A., Barrett C.B., Hazell P. Food Aid for Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa. DSGD Discussion Paper #5 2004, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC.
2. Adger W.N., Agrawala S., Mirza M.M.Q., Conde C., O'Brien K., Pulhin J., Pulwarty R., Smit B., Takahashi K. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J.V.D. Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
3. Agrawal A., Perrin N. Climate Adaptation, Local Institutions and Rural Livelihoods. International Forestry Resources and Institutions Program (IFRI) Working Paper # W08I-6 2008, University of Michigan.
4. Agricultural Technologies and Tropical Deforestation 2001, CABI Publishing, Oxon, UK. A. Angelsen, D. Kaimowitz (Eds.).
5. Arndt C., Bacou M. Economy wide effects of climate variability and prediction in Mozambique. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 2000, 82:750-754.
6. Balmford A., Green R.E., Scharlemann J.P.W. Sparing land for nature: exploring the potential impact of changes in agricultural yield on the area needed for crop production. Global Change Biology 2005, 11(10):1594-1605.
7. Barrett C.B. Food security and food assistance programs. Handbook of Agricultural Economics. 2002, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam. B.L. Gardner, G.C. Rausser (Eds.).
8. Battisti D.S., Naylor R.L. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 2009, 323(5911):240-244.
9. Burney J.A., Davis S.J., Lobell D.B. Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2010, 107(26):12052-12057.
10. Cannell M.G.R. Carbon sequestration and biomass energy offset: theoretical, potential and achievable capacities globally, in Europe and the UK. Biomass Bioenergy 2003, 24(2):97-116.
11. Carter M.R., Little P.D., Mogues T., Negatu W. Poverty traps and natural disasters in Ethiopia and Honduras. World Development 2007, 35(5):835-856.
12. Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R. Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: processes and uncertainties. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2008, 148:343-356.
13. Challinor A.J., Wheeler T.R., Hemming D., Upadhyaya H.D. Crop yield simulations using a perturbed crop and climate parameter ensemble: sensitivity to temperature and potential for genotypic adaptation to climate change. Climate Research 2009, 38:117-127.
14. Challinor A.J., Simelton E.S., Fraser E.D.G., Hemming D., Collins M. Increased crop failure due to climate change: assessing adaptation options using models and socio-economic data for wheat in China. Environmental Research Letters 2010, 5:034012.
15. Dercon S. Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia. Journal of Development Economics 2004, 74(2):309-329.
16. Easterling W.E., Aggarwal P.K., Batima P., Brander K.M., Erda L., Howden S.M., Kirilenko A., Morton J., Soussana J.-F., Schmidhuber J., Tubiello F.N. Food, fibre and forest products. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 273-313. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
17. Evenson R.E., Gollin D. Assessing the impact of the green revolution, 1960 to 2000. Science 2003, 300:758-762.
18. FAO World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050 2006, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
19. FAO The State of Food Security in the World 2009, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
20. FAO Food Security and Agriculture Mitigation in Developing Countries: Options for Capturing Synergies 2009, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
21. FAO Harvesting Agriculture's Multiple Benefits: Mitigation, Adaptation, Development and Food Security 2009, Policy Brief, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
22. Godfray H.C.J., Beddington J.R., Crute I.R., Haddad L., Lawrence D., Muir J.F., Pretty J., Robinson S., Thomas S.M., Toulmin C. Food security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 2010, 327(5967):812-818.
23. Gregory P.J., Ingram J.S.I., Andersson R., Betts R.A., Brovkin V., Chase T.N., Grace P.R., Gray A.J., Hamilton N., Hardy T.B., Howden S.M., Jenkins A., Meybeck M., Olsson M., Ortiz-Monasterio I., Palm C.A., Payn T.W., Rummukainen M., Schulze R.E., Thiem M., Valentin C., Wilkinson M.J. Environmental consequences of alternative practices for intensifying crop production. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2002, 88(3):279-290.
24. Gregory P.J., Ingram J.S.I., Brklacich M. Climate change and food security. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Biological Sciences 2005, 360(1463):2139-2148.
25. Haile M. Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 2005, 360(1463):2169-2182.
26. Hallstrom D.G. Interannual climate variation, climate prediction, and agricultural trade: the costs of surprise versus variability. Review of International Economics 2004, 12:441-455.
27. Hansen J.W., Mason S., Sun L., Tall A. Review of seasonal climate forecasting for agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Experimental Agriculture 2011, 47(2):205-240.
28. Hazell P., Wood S. Drivers of change in global agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 2008, 363(1491):495-515.
29. Hazell P., Anderson J., Balzer N., Hastrup Clemmensen A., Hess U., Rispoli F. Potential for Scale and Sustainability in Weather Index Insurance for Agriculture and Rural Livelihoods 2010, International Fund for Agricultural Development and World Food Programme, Rome.
30. Index Insurance and Climate Risk: Prospects for Development and Disaster Management. Climate and Society No. 2 2009, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York, USA. M.E. Hellmuth, D.E. Osgood, U. Hess, A. Moorhead, H. Bhojwani (Eds.).
31. Hess U., Syroka J. Weather-Based Insurance in Southern Africa: The Case of Malawi. Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 13 2005, The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank, Washington, DC.
32. Hickman J.E., Havlikova M., Kroeze C., Palm C.A. Current and future nitrous oxide emissions from African agriculture. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 2011.
33. IFAD The Potential for Scale and Sustainability in Weather Index Insurance 2010, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Rome, Italy.
34. IRI A Gap Analysis for the Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System Programme in Africa. IRI Technical Report #06 01 2006, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York.
35. IWMI Flexible Water Storage Options: For Adaptation to Climate Change. IWMI Water Policy Brief #31 2009, International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Colombo, Sri Lanka.
36. Jarvis A., Lane A., Hijmans R.J. The effect of climate change on crop wild relatives. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2008, 126:13-23.
37. Jones P.G., Thornton P.K. Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change. Environmental Science and Policy 2009, 12(4):427-437.
38. Lal R. Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate change and food security. Science 2004, 304(5677):1623-1627.
39. Lane A., Jarvis A. Changes in climate will modify the geography of crop suitability: agricultural biodiversity can help with adaptation. Journal of Semi-arid Tropical Agricultural Research 2007, 4(1):1-12.
40. Liverman D.M., Kapadia K. Food systems and the global environment: an overview. Food Security and Global Environmental Change 2010, Earthscan, London. J.S.I. Ingram, P.J. Ericksen, D. Liverman (Eds.).
41. Lobell D.B., Burke M.B., Tebaldi C., Mastrandrea M.D., Falcon W.P., Naylor R.L. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 2008, 319(5863):580-581.
42. Lobell D.B., Bänziger M., Magorokosho C., Vivek B. Nonlinear heat effects on African maize as evidenced by historical yield trials. Nature Climate Change 2011, 1:1-4.
43. Nelson G.C., Rosegrant M.W., Koo J., Robertson R., Sulser T., Zhu T., Ringler C., Msangi S., Palazzo A., Batka M., Magalhaes M., Valmonte-Santos R., Ewing M., Lee D. Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs Of Adaptation. Food Policy Report #19 2009, IFPRI, Washington, DC.
44. New, M., Anderson, K., Bows, A., Fung, F., Thornton, P.K., 2011. Likelihood of high levels of climate change by 2060 and implications for migration. Report for the UK Government Foresight Project on Global Environmental Migration, 32 pp.
45. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden, C.E. Hanson (Eds.).
46. Patt A., Suarez P., Gwata C. Effects of seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2005, 102:12623-12628.
47. Patt A., Ogallo L., Hellmuth M. Learning from 10 years of climate outlook forums in Africa. Science 2007, 318(5847):49-50.
48. Paustian, K., Babcock, B., Kling, C., Hatfield, J., Lal, R., McCarl, B., McLaughlin, S., Post, W.M., Mosier, A., Rice, C., Robertson, G.P., Rosenberg, N.J., Rosenzweig, C., Schlesinger, W.H., Zlberman, D., 2004. Agricultural Mitigation of Greenhouse Gases: Science and Policy Options. Council on Agricultural Science and Technology (CAST) Report #R141, ISBN 1-887383r-r26-3.
49. Pielke R.A., Adegoke J.O., Chase T.N., Marshall C.H., Matsui T., Niyogi D. A new paradigm for assessing the role of agriculture in the climate system and in climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2007, 142:234-254.
50. Pretty J.N, Morison J.I.L., Hine R.E. Reducing food poverty by increasing agricultural sustainability in developing countries. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 2003, 95(1):217-234.
51. Reardon T., Timmer P., Berdegué J. The rapid rise of supermarkets in developing countries: Induced organizational, institutional, and technological change in agrifood systems. Journal of Agricultural and Development Economics 2004, 1:168-183.
52. Robertson G.P., Paul E.A., Harwood R.R. Greenhouse gases in intensive agriculture: contributions of individual gases to the radiative forcing of the atmosphere. Science 2000, 289(5486):1922.
53. Roncoli C., Jost C., Kirshen P., Sanon M., Ingram K.T., Woodin M., Somé L., Ouattara F., Sanfo B.J., Sia C., Yaka P., Hoogenboom G. From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa). Climatic Change 2009, 92:433-460.
54. Rudel T.K., Schneider L.C., Uriarte M., Turner I.I., DeFries B.L., Lawrence R., Geoghegan D., Hecht J., Ickowitz S., Lambin A., Birkenholtz E.F., Babtista T., Grau S.R. Agricultural intensification and changes in cultivated areas, 1970-2005. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2009, 106(49):20675-20680.
55. Semenov M.A., Shewry P.R. Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe. Nature Scientific Reports 2011, 66. 10.1038/srep00066.
56. Climate and Land Degradation. Environmental Science and Engineering 2007, Springer, Berlin. M.V.K. Sivakumar, N. Ndiang'ui (Eds.).
57. Smith P., Martino D., Cai Z., Gwary D., Janzen H., Kumar P., McCarl M., Ogle S., O'Mara F., Rice C., Scholes B., Sirotenko O. Agriculture. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (Eds.).
58. Smith P., Martino D., Cai Z., Gwary D., Janzen H., Kumar P., McCarl B., Ogle S., O'Mara F., Rice C., Scholes B., Sirotenko O., Howden M., McAllister T., Pan G., Romanenkov V., Schneider U., Towprayoon S. Policy and technological constraints to implementation of greenhouse gas mitigation options in agriculture. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 2007, 118(1-4):6-28.
59. Smith P., Martino D., Cai Z., Gwary D., Janzen H., Kumar P., McCarl B., Ogle S., O'Mara F., Rice C., Scholes B., Sirotenko O., Howden M., McAllister T., Pan G., Romanenkov V., Schneider U., Towprayoon S., Wattenbach M., Smith J. Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 2008, 363:789-813.
60. Smith P., Olesen J.E. Synergies between the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change in agriculture. Journal of Agricultural Science 2010, 148:543-552.
61. Sperling L. The adoption of camels by Samburu cattle herders. Nomad Peoples 1987, 23:1-18.
62. Thornton P.K., Jones P.G., Ericksen P., Challinor A.J. Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a four-plus degree world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 2010, 369:117-136.
63. Thornton P.K., Rufino M., Karanja S., Jones P.G., Herrero M. Genesis Reversed: Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural and Livelihood Systems in Mixed Crop Livestock Systems of East Africa 2011, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya.
64. Tilman D., Cassman K.G., Matson P.A., Naylor R., Polasky S. Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature 2002, 418(6898):671-677.
65. Verchot L., Van Noordwijk M., Kandji S., Tomich T.P., Ong C.K., Albrecht A., Mackensen J., Bantilan C., Anupama K.V., Palm C.A. Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 2007, 12(5):901-918.
66. Vermeulen S., Cotula L. Over the heads of local people: consultation, consent, and recompense in large-scale land deals for biofuels projects in Africa. Journal of Peasant Studies 2010, 37:899-916.
67. Wassmann R., Hosen Y., Sumfleth K. Reducing Methane Emissions from Irrigated Rice. Vision 2020 Report 2009, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, USA.
68. West P., Gibbs H.K., Monfreda C., Wagner J., Barford C.C., Carpenter S.R., Foley J.A. Trading carbon for food: global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2010, 107:19645-19648.
69. Williams J.W., Jackson S.T., Kutzbach J.E. Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 2007, 104:5738-5742.
70. Ziervogel G., Ericksen P.J. Adapting to climate change to sustain food security. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2010, 1:1757-7799.