Predictive ecology: Systems approaches

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 367, Issue 1586, 2012, Pages 163-169

  Evans, Matthew R ^a   Norris, Ken J ^b   Benton, Tim G ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EXETER   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Ecological modelling; Evolution; Global circulation model; Prediction; Systems biology

Indexed keywords

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATOLOGY; ECOLOGICAL APPROACH; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY; HETEROGENEITY; NUMERICAL MODEL; PREDICTION;

EID: 82755165267     PISSN: 09628436     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2011.0191     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Coleridge, S. T. 1818 Essay VI. The Friend, vol. 3, p. 179. London, UK: Rest Fenner.
2. Medawar, P. 1984 The limits of science. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
3. Sutherland, W. J. 2006 Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods. J. Appl. Ecol. 43, 599-616. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01182.x).
4. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Washington, DC: Island Press.
5. Clark, J. S. et al. 2001 Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 293, 657-660. (doi:10.1126/science.293.5530.657)
6. Weisberg, M.2007 Three kinds of idealization. J. Philos. 104, 639-659.
7. Orzack, S. H. 2012 The philosophy ofmodelling or does the philosophy of biology have any use? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 170-180. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0265).
8. Orzack, S. H. 2005 Discussion: what, if anything, is 'The strategy of model building in population biology?' A comment on Levins (1966) and Odenbaugh (2003). Phil. Sci. 72, 479-485. (doi:10.1086/498475).
9. Orzack, S. H. & Sober, E. 1993 A critical assessment of Levins's. The strategy of model building in population biology (1966). Q. Rev. Biol. 68, 533-546. (doi:10.1086/418301)
10. Levins, R. 1966 The strategy of model building in population ecology. Am. Sci. 54, 421-431.
11. Levins, R. 1993 A response to Orzack and Sober: formal analysis and the fluidity of science. Q. Rev. Biol. 68, 547-555. (doi:10.1086/418302)
12. Levins, R. 1968 Review: ecological engineering: theory and technology. Q. R. Biol. 43, 301-305. (doi:10.1086/405813)
13. Odenbaugh, J. 2003 Complex systems, trade-offs and mathematical modeling: Richard Levins' 'strategy of model building in population biology' revisited. Phil. Sci. 70, 1496-1507. (doi:10.1086/377425)
14. Weisberg, M. 2006 Forty years of 'The strategy': Levins on model building and idealization. Biol. Philos. 21, 623-645. (doi:10.1007/s10539-006-9051-9)
15. Volterra, V. 1926 Fluctuations in the abundance of a species considered mathematically. Nature 118, 558-560. (doi:10.1038/118558a0)
16. Evans, M. R. 2012 Modelling ecological systems in a changing world. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 181-190. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0172)
17. Norris, K. 2012 Biodiversity in the context of ecosystem services: the applied need for systems approaches. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 191-199. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0176)
18. Watt, K. E. F. 1966 Systems analysis in ecology. New York, NY: Academic Press.
19. Watt, K. E. F. 1968 Ecology and resource management: a quantitative approach. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
20. Krebs, J. R. & Davies, N. B. 1993 An introduction to behavioral ecology, 3rd edn. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Scientific.
21. Stearns, S. C. 1992 The evolution of life histories. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
22. Benton, T. G. 2012 Individual variation and population dynamics: lessons from a simple system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 200-210. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0168)
23. Lehtonen, J. & Kokko, H. 2012 Positive feedback and alternative stable states in inbreeding, cooperation, sex roles and other evolutionary processes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 211-221. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0177).
24. Kokko, H. & Lopez-Sepulcre, A. 2007 The ecogenetic link between demography and evolution: can we bridge the gap between theory and data? Ecol. Lett. 10, 773-782. (doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01086.x).
25. Grafen, A. 2007 The formal Darwinism project: a midterm report. J. Evol. Biol. 20, 1243-1254. (doi:10.1111/j.1420-9101.2007.01321.x)
26. Grafen, A. 1999 Formal Darwinism, the individualas- maximising-agent analogy, and bet-hedging. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 266, 799-803. (doi:10.1098/rspb.1999.0708)
27. Moorcroft, P. R., Hurtt, G. C. & Pacala, S. W. 2001 A method for scaling vegetation dynamics: the ecosystem demography model (ED). Ecol. Monogr. 71, 557-586. (doi:10.1890/0012-9615(2001)071[0557:AM FSVD]2.0.CO;2).
28. Pacala, S. W., Canham, C. D., Saponara, J., Silander, J. A., Kobe, R. K. & Ribbens, E. 1996 Forest models defined by field measurements: estimation, error analysis and dynamics. Ecol. Monogr. 66, 1-43. (doi:10.2307/2963479)
29. Purves, D. & Pacala, S. 2008 Predictive models of forest dynamics. Science 320, 1452-1453. (doi:10.1126/ science.1155359).
30. Purves, D. W., Lichstein, J. W., Strigul, N. & Pacala, S. W. 2008 Predicting and understanding forest dynamics using a simple tractable model. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 105, 17018-17022. (doi:10.1073/ pnas.0807754105)
31. Strigul, N., Pristinski, D., Purves, D., Dushoff, J. & Pacala, S. 2008 Scaling from trees to forests: tractable macroscopic equations for forest dynamics. Ecol. Monogr. 78, 523-545. (doi:10.1890/08-0082.1)
32. Jørgensen, C. et al. 2007 Ecology: managing evolving fish stocks. Science 318, 1247-1248. (doi:10.1126/science.1148089)
33. Olsen, E. M., Heino, M., Lilly, G. R., Morgan, M. J., Brattey, J., Ernande, B. & Dieckmann, U. 2004 Maturation trends indicative of rapid evolution preceded the collapse of northern cod. Nature 428, 932-935. (doi:10.1038/nature02430)
34. Ernande, B., Dieckmann, U. & Heino, M. 2004 Adaptive changes in harvested populations: plasticity and evolution of age and size at maturation. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 271, 415-423. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2003.2519)
35. Medvigy, D. & Moorcroft, P. R. 2012 Predicting ecosystem dynamics at regional scales: an evaluation of a terrestrial biosphere model for the forests of northeastern North America. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 222-235. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0253)
36. Medvigy, D., Wofsy, S. C., Munger, J. W., Hollinger, D. Y. & Moorcroft, P. R. 2009 Mechanistic scaling of ecosystem function and dynamics in space and time: ecosystem demography model version 2. J. Geophys. Res. 114, G01002. (doi:10.1029/2008JG000812)
37. Clark, J. S., Bell, D. M., Kwit, M., Stine, A., Vierra, B. & Zhu, K. 2012 Individual-scale inference to anticipate climate-change vulnerability of biodiversity. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 236-246. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0183)
38. Uchmánski, J., Kowalczyk, K. & Ogrodowczyk, P. 2008 Evolution of theoretical ecology in last decades: why did individual-based modelling emerge. Ecol. Questions 10, 13-18. (doi:10.2478/v10090-009-0002-3)
39. Beale, C. M. & Lennon, J. J. 2012 Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 247-258. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0178)
40. Rounsevell, M. D. A., Robinson, D. T. & Murray-Rust, D. 2012 From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 259-269. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0187)
41. Milner-Gulland, E. J. 2012 Interactions between human behaviour and ecological systems. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 270-278. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0175)
42. Bithell, M. & Brasington, J. 2009 Coupling agent-based models of subsistence farming with individual-based forest models and dynamic models of water distribution. Environ. Model Softw. 24, 173-190. (doi:10.1016/j. envsoft.2008.06.016)
43. Armsworth, P. R., Daily, G. C., Kareiva, P. & Sanchirico, J. N. 2006 Land market feedbacks can undermine biodiversity conservation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 15 403-15 408. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0505278103)
44. Rice, K. 2004 Sprint research runs into a credibility gap. Nature 432, 147. (doi:10.1038/432147b)
45. Westerhoff, H. V. & Palsson, B. O. 2004 The evolution of molecular biology into systems biology. Nat. Biotechnol. 22, 1249-1252. (doi:10.1038/nbt1020)
46. Tucker, A. & Duplisea, D. 2012 Bioinformatics tools in predictive ecology: applications to fisheries. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 279-290. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0184)
47. Penfield, S. & Springthorpe, V. 2012 Understanding chilling responses in Arabidopsis seeds and their contribution to life history. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 291-297. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0186).
48. Grimm, V. & Railsback, S. F. 2012 Pattern-oriented modelling: a 'multi-scope' for predictive systems ecology. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 298-310. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0180)
49. Seidl, R., Lexer, M. J., Jäger, D. & Hönninger, K. 2005 Evaluating the accuracy and generality of a hybrid patch model. Tree Physiol. 25, 939-951. (doi:10.1093/treephys/25.7.939)
50. Kurz, W. A., Dymond, C. C., Stinson, G., Rampley, G. J., Neilson, E. T., Carroll, A. L., Ebata, T. & Safranyik, L. 2008 Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452, 987-990. (doi:10.1038/nature06777)
51. Smith, P. et al. 2012 Systems approaches in global change and biogeochemistry research. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 311-321. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0173).
52. Shapiro, F. R. 2006 The Yale book of quotations. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
53. Sitch, S. et al. 2008 Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Glob. Change Biol. 14, 1-25. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x)
54. Sutherland, W. J. & Freckleton, R. P. 2012 Making predictive ecology more relevant to policy makers and practitioners. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 322-330. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2011.0181)
55. Coulson, T., Benton, T. G., Lundberg, P., Dall, S. R. X. & Kendall, B. E. 2006 Putting evolutionary biology back in the ecological theatre: a demographic framework mapping genes to communities. Evol. Ecol. Res. 8, 1155-1171.
56. Coulson, T., Benton, T. G., Lundberg, P., Dall, S. R. X., Kendall, B. E. & Gaillard, J. M. 2006 Estimating individual contributions to population growth: evolutionary fitness in ecological time. Proc. R. Soc. B 273, 547-555. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2005.3357).