A new multidimensional stress release statistical model based on coseismic stress transfer

Geophysical Journal International

Volumn 187, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 1479-1494

  Jiang, Mingming ^a,b   Zhou, Shiyong ^b   Chen, Yongshun John ^b   Ai, Yinshuang ^a  

^a INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS   (China)

^b PEKING UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction; Probabilistic forecasting; Seismicity and tectonics; Statistical seismology

Indexed keywords

AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION; COSEISMIC STRESS TRANSFER; DIP ANGLE; EPICENTRE; ESTIMATED MODEL; HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES; LOADING RATE; MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION; MATHEMATICAL EXPRESSIONS; NEW MODEL; NORTH CHINA; POINT PROCESS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING; RUPTURE LENGTH; STATIC FATIGUE; STATISTICAL MODELS; STRESS CORROSION; STRESS RELEASE; SUBMODELS; WEIGHTING FUNCTIONS;

CORROSION FATIGUE; DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS; FORECASTING; LIBRARIES; STRESS ANALYSIS; STRESS CORROSION CRACKING; TECTONICS;

EARTHQUAKES;

COSEISMIC PROCESS; DISLOCATION; EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; EARTHQUAKE RUPTURE; GEOSTATISTICS; NUMERICAL MODEL; SEISMICITY; SEISMOLOGY; SEISMOTECTONICS; STRESS ANALYSIS;

BEIJING [CHINA]; CHINA; DATONG; SHANXI;

EID: 81555214064     PISSN: 0956540X     EISSN: 1365246X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05208.x     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Akaike, H., 1977. On entropy maximization principle, in Applications of Statistics, pp. 27-41, ed. Krishnaiah, P.R. North Holland, Amsterdam.
2. Aoi, S., Enescu, B., Suzuki, W., Asano, Y., Obara, K., Kunugi, T. & Shiomi, K., 2010. Stress transfer in the Tokai subduction zone from the 2009 Suruga Bay earthquake in Japan, Nat. Geosci., 3, 496-500, doi:.
3. Bebbington, M. & Harte, D., 2003. The linked stress release model for spatio-temporal seismicity: formulations, procedures and applications, Geophys. J. Int., 154, 925-946.
4. Bender, B., 1983. Maximum-likelihood estimation of b-values for magnitude grouped data, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 73(3), 831-851.
5. Benioff, H., 1951. Crustal strain characteristics derived from earthquake sequences, Trans. Am. geophys. Un., 32, 508-514.
6. Catalli, F., Cocco, M., Console, R. & Chiaraluce, L., 2008. Modeling seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (central Italy) through a rate- and state-dependent model, J. geophys. Res., 113, B11301, doi:.
7. Das, S. & Scholz C.H., 1981. Theory of time-dependent rupture in the Earth, J. geophys. Res., 86, 6039-6051.
8. Deng, Q.D., Zhang, P.Z., Ran, Y.K., Yang, X.P., Min, W. & Chu, Q.Z., 2003. Basic characteristics of active tectonics of China, Sci. China Ser. D., 46(4), 356-372.
9. Dieterich, J.H., 1994. A constitutive law for rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering, J. geophys. Res., 99, 2601-2618, doi:.
10. Felzer, K.R., Becker, T.W., Abercrombie, R.E., Ekström, G. & Rice, J.R., 2002. Triggering of the 1999 MW 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake by aftershocks of the 1992 MW 7.3 Landers earthquake, J. geophys. Res., 107(B9), 2190, doi:.
11. Feng, R., Zhu, J.S., Ding, Y.Y., Chen, G.Y., He, Z.Q., Yang, S.B., Zhou, H.N. & Sun, K.Z., 1981. Study of the Crustal structure in China with seismic surface wave, Acta. Seismol. Sin., 3(4), 335-350 (in Chinese).
12. Glathart, J.L. & Preston, F.W., 1946. Fatigue modulus of glass, J. Appl. Phys., 17, 189-195.
13. Gomberg, J., Beeler, N.M. & Blanpied, M.L., 2000. On rate-state and Coulomb failure models, J. geophys. Res., 105, 7857-7872.
14. Hainzl, S., Enescu, B., Cocco, M., Woessner, J., Catalli, F., Wang, R. & Roth, F., 2009. Aftershock modeling based on uncertain stress calculations, J. geophys. Res., 114, B05309, doi:.
15. Hanks, T.C. & Kanamori, H., 1979. A moment-magnitude scale, J. geophys. Res., 84, 2348-2350.
16. Harris, R.A., 1998. Introduction to special section: stress triggers, stress shadows, and implications for seismic hazard, J. geophys. Res., 103, 24 347-24 358.
17. Hurvich, C.M. & Tsai, C.L., 1989. Regression and time series model selection in small samples, Biometrika, 76, 297-307.
18. Imoto, M., 2001. Application of the stress release model to the Nankai earthquake sequence, southwest Japan, Tectonophysics, 338, 287-295.
19. King, G.C.P., Stein, S. & Lin, J., 1994. Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 84(3), 935-953.
20. Kranz, R., 1980. The effect of confining pressure and stress difference on static fatigue of granite, J. geophys. Res., 85, 1854-1866.
21. Lewis, P.A.W. & Shedler, E., 1979. Simulation of non-homogeneous Poisson processes by thinning, Nav. Res. Logist. Q., 26, 403-413.
22. Liu, J., Chen, Y., Shi, Y.L. & Vere-Jones, D., 1999. Coupled stress release model for time-dependent seismicity, Pure appl. Geophys., 155, 649-667.
23. Lu, C.S. & Vere-Jones, D., 2000. Application of linked stress release model to historical earthquake data: comparison between two kinds of tectonic seismicity, Pure appl. Geophys., 157(11-12), 2351-2364.
24. Lu, C.S. & Vere-Jones, D., 2001. Statistical analysis of synthetic earthquake catalogs generated by models with various levels of fault zone disorder, J. geophys. Res., 106(B6), 11 115-11 125.
25. McCloskey, J., Nalbant, S.S. & Steacy, S., 2005. Indonesian earthqauake: earthquake risk from co-seismic stress, Nature, 434, 291-291.
26. Meredith, P.G. & Atkinson, B.K., 1983. Stress-corrosion and acoustic-emission during tensile crack-propagation in whin sill dolerite and other basic rocks, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., 75, 1-21.
27. Mogi, K., 1962. Study of the elastic shocks caused by the fracture of a heterogeneous material and its relation to earthquake phenomena, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Tokyo Univ., 40, 125-853.
28. Mould, R.E. & Southwick, R.D., 1959. Strength and static fatigue of abraded glass under controlled ambient conditions. I, general concepts and apparatus, J. Am. Ceram. Soc., 42, 542-547, doi:.
29. Musmeci, F. & Vere-Jones, D., 1986. A variable-grid algorithm for smoothing clustered data, Biometrics, 42, 483-494.
30. Ogata, Y., 1981. On Lewis' simulation method for point processes, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, IT-27, 23-31.
31. Okada, Y., 1992. Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 82(2), 1018-1040.
32. Ogata, Y., 1998. Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrence, Ann. Inst. Stat. Math., 50, 379-402.
33. Reid, H.F., 1910. The mechanism of the earthquake, in Vol. II of the California Earthquake of April 18, 1906, Report of the State Earthquake Investigation Commission, pp. 192, eds Lawson, A.C., Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication 87, Washington, DC (reprinted 1969).
34. Robinson, R. & Benites, R., 1995. Synthetic seismicity models of multiple interacting faults, J. geophys. Res., 100(B9), 18 229-18 238.
35. Robinson, R. & Benites, R., 1996. Synthetic seismicity models for the Wellington region, New Zealand: implications for the temporal distribution of large events, J. geophys. Res., 101, 27 833-27 844.
36. Robinson, R. & Benites, R., 2001. Upgrading a synthetic seismicity models for more realistic fault ruptures, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1843-1846.
37. Robinson, R. & Zhou, S.Y., 2005. Stress Interactions within the Tangshan, China, Earthquake Sequence of 1976, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 95(6), 2501-2505, doi:.
38. Rotondi, R. & Varini, E., 2007. Bayesian inference of stress release models applied to some Italian seismogenic zones, Geophys. J. Int., 169, 301-314, doi:.
39. Schmitz, G.K. & Metcalfe, A.G., 1966. Stress-corrosion of E-glass fibers, I&EC Product Res. Dev., 5, 1-8, doi:.
40. Scholz, C.H., 1968a. The mechanism of creep in brittle rock, J. geophys. Res., 73, 3295-3302.
41. Scholz, C.H., 1968b. Microfractures, aftershocks, and seismicity, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 58(3), 1117-1130.
42. Scholz, C.H., 1972. Static fatigue in quartz, J. geophys. Res., 77, 2104-2114.
43. Shen, Z.K., Zhao, C.K., Yin, A., Li, Y.X., Jackson, D.D., Fang, P. & Dong, D.N., 2000. Contemporary crustal deformation in east Asia constrained by global positioning system measurements, J. geophys. Res., 105, 5721-5734.
44. Shen, Z.K., Wan, Y.G., Gan, W.J., Li, T.M. & Zeng, Y.H., 2004. Crustal stress evolution over the past 700 years in North China and earthquake occurrence, Earthq. Res.
45. Steacy, S., Gomberg, J. & Cocco, M., 2005. Introduction to special section: stress transfer, earthquake triggering, and time-dependent seismic hazard, J. geophys. Res., 110(B5), B05S01, doi:.
46. Stock, C. & Smith, E.G.C., 2002. Adaptive kernel estimation and continuous probability representation of historical earthquake catalogs, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 92(3), 904-912.
47. Vere-Jones, D., 1978. Earthquake prediction: a statistician view, J. Phys. Earth, 26, 129-146.
48. Vere-Jones, D., 1992. Statistical methods for description and display of earthquake catalogs, in Statistics in the Environmental and Earth Sciences, pp. 220-246, eds Walden, A.T. & Guttorp, P., Arnold Publishers, London.
49. Vere-Jones, D. & Deng, Y.L., 1988. A point process analysis of historical earthquakes from North China, Earthq. Res. China, 4, 8-19.
50. Wells, D.L. & Coppersmith, K.J., 1994. New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 84(4), 974-1002.
51. Xu, Z.H., Wang, S.Y., Huang, Y.R. & Gao, A., 1992. Tectonic stress-field of china inferred from a large number of small earthquakes, J. geophys. Res., 97(B8), 11 867-11 877.
52. Yang, G., Reinstein, L.E., Pai, S., Xu, Z. & Carroll, D.L., 1998. A new genetic algorithm technique in optimization of permanent 125-I prostate implants, Med. Phys., 25(12), 2308-2315.
53. Yang, G.H., Han, Y.P., Wang, M. & Ma, Q.Z., 2003. Horizontal deformation in several major seismically active areas in Chinese mainland, J. Geod. Geodyn., 23(3), 42-49 (in Chinese).
54. Zhang G.M., Wang, S.Y., Li, L., Zhang, X.D. & Ma, H.S., 2002. Focal depth research of earthquakes in Mainland China: implication for tectonics, Chinese Sci. Bull., 47, 969-974.
55. Zheng, X. & Vere-Jones, D., 1991. Application of stress release models to historical earthquakes from North China, Pure appl. Geophys., 135, 559-576.
56. Zheng, X. & Vere-Jones, D., 1994. Further applications of stochastic stress release model to historical earthquake data, Tectonophysics, 229, 101-121.
57. Zhou, S.Y., 2008. Seismicity simulation in Western Sichuan of China based on the fault interactions and its implication on the estimation of the regional earthquake risk, Chinese J. Geophys., 51(1), 165-174.
58. Zhou, S.Y., Jiang, M. & Robinson, R., 2006. The role of fault interactions in the generation of the 1997 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm, Xinjiang, China, Chinese J. Geophys., 49(4), 1102-1109.
59. Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y. & Vere-Jones, D., 2002. Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 97, 369-380.
60. Zhuang, J., Vere-Jones, D., Guan, H., Ogata, Y. & Ma, L., 2005. Preliminary analysis of observations on the ultra-low frequency electric field in the Beijing region, Pure appl. Geophys., 162, 1367-1396, doi:.
61. Ziv, A., 2006. What controls the spatial distribution of remote aftershocks? Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 96(6), 2231-2241, doi:.