A stochastic model for the transition to strong convection

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 68, Issue 12, 2011, Pages 2955-2970

  Stechmann, Samuel N ^a   Neelin, J David ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Convection; Convective parameterization; Precipitation; Stochastic models; Tropics

Indexed keywords

ANALYTIC SOLUTION; AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTIONS; CRITICAL VALUE; EXPONENTIAL TAIL; EXTERNAL FORCING; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; GAUSSIAN WHITE NOISE; HEAVY PRECIPITATION; LONG LIFETIME; MARKOV JUMP PROCESS; MEAN PRECIPITATION; MODEL PARAMETERIZATION; MODEL PARAMETERS; OBSERVATIONAL DATA; POWER LAW; POWER LAW DECAY; PRECIPITATION EVENTS; PROBABILITY DENSITIES; SHARP TRANSITION; SIMPLE STOCHASTIC; SINGLE LOCATION; STATISTICAL FEATURES; STATISTICAL MEASURES; STOCHASTIC COMPONENT; STRONG CONVECTIONS; TWO-STATE;

AUTOCORRELATION; HEAT CONVECTION; MARKOV PROCESSES; PARAMETERIZATION; PRECIPITATION (CHEMICAL); PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; TIME SERIES; TROPICS; WATER VAPOR; WHITE NOISE;

STOCHASTIC MODELS;

ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION; AUTOCORRELATION; EXTREME EVENT; NUMERICAL MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION; POWER LAW; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STOCHASTICITY;

EID: 80755160964     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-028.1     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Betts, A. K., and M. J. Miller, 1986: A new convective adjustment scheme. Part II: Single column tests using GATE wave, BOMEX, ATEX and arctic air-mass data sets. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112, 693-709.
2. Bourlioux, A., and A. J. Majda, 2002: Elementary models with probability distribution function intermittency for passive scalars with a mean gradient. Phys. Fluids, 14, 881-897.
3. Bretherton, C. S., M. E. Peters, and L. E. Back, 2004: Relationships between water vapor path and precipitation over the tropical oceans. J. Climate, 15, 1517-1528.
4. Bright, D., and S. Mullen, 2002: Short-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation during the southwest monsoon. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 1080-1100.
5. Gardiner, C.W., 2004: Handbook of Stochastic Methods for Physics, Chemistry and the Natural Sciences. 3rd ed. Springer Series in Synergetics, Vol. 13. Springer-Verlag, 415 pp.
6. Higham, D., 2001: An algorithmic introduction to numerical simulation of stochastic differential equations. SIAM Rev., 43, 525-546.
7. Hilburn, K. A., and F. J. Wentz, 2008: Intercalibrated passive microwave rain products from the unified microwave ocean retrieval algorithm (UMORA). J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 778-794.
8. Holloway, C. E., and J. D. Neelin, 2009: Moisture vertical structure, column water vapor, and tropical deep convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 1665-1683.
9. Holloway, C. E., and J. D. Neelin, 2010: Temporal relations of column water vapor and tropical precipitation. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 1091-1105.
10. Houze, R. A., Jr., and C.-P. Cheng, 1977: Radar characteristics of tropical convection observed during GATE: Mean properties and trends over the summer season. Mon. Wea. Rev., 105, 964-980.
11. Katsoulakis, M., A. Majda, and A. Sopasakis, 2006: Intermittency, metastability and coarse graining for coupled deterministic-stochastic lattice systems. Nonlinearity, 19, 1021-1047.
12. Khouider, B., A. J. Majda, and M. A. Katsoulakis, 2003: Coarsegrained stochastic models for tropical convection and climate. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 100, 11 941-11 946.
13. Khouider, B., J. A. Biello, and A. J. Majda, 2010: A stochastic multicloud model for tropical convection. Commun.Math. Sci., 8, 187-216.
14. Lawler, G., 1995: Introduction to Stochastic Processes. Chapman & Hall/CRC, 176 pp.
15. Lin, J., and J. Neelin, 2000: Influence of a stochastic moist convective parameterization on tropical climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3691-3694.
16. Lin, J., and J. Neelin, 2002: Considerations for stochastic convective parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 959-975.
17. Lin, J., and J. Neelin, 2003: Toward stochastic deep convective parameterization in general circulation models. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1162, doi:10.1029/2002GL016203.
18. Lintner, B. R., C. E. Holloway, and J. D. Neelin, 2011: Column water vapor statistics and their relationship to deep convection and vertical and horizontal circulation and moisture structure at Nauru. J. Climate, 24, 5454-5466.
19. Lovejoy, S., 1982: Area-perimeter relation for rain and cloud areas. Science, 216, 185-187.
20. Majda, A. J., and B. Khouider, 2002: Stochastic and mesoscopic models for tropical convection. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 99, 1123-1128.
21. Majda, A. J., and S. N. Stechmann, 2008: Stochastic models for convective momentumtransport. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 17 614-17 619.
22. Majda, A. J., C. Franzke, and B. Khouider, 2008: An applied mathematics perspective on stochastic modeling for climate. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 366A, 2427-2455.
23. Mapes, B. E., and R. A. Houze Jr., 1993: Cloud clusters and superclusters over the oceanic warm pool. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1398-1416.
24. Mapes, B. E., S. Tulich, J.-L. Lin, and P. Zuidema, 2006: The mesoscale convection life cycle: Building block or prototype for largescale tropical waves? Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 42, 3-29.
25. Mapes, B. E., R. Milliff, and J. Morzel, 2009: Composite life cycle of maritime tropicalmesoscale convective systems in scatterometer and microwave satellite observations. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 199-208.
26. Matsumoto, M., and T. Nishimura, 1998: Mersenne twister: A 623-dimensionally equidistributed uniform pseudo-random number generator. ACM Trans. Model. Comput. Simul., 8, 3-30.
27. Muller, C., L. Back, P. O'Gorman, and K. Emanuel, 2009: Amodel for the relationship between tropical precipitation and column water vapor. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L16804, doi:10.1029/2009GL039667.
28. Neelin, J. D., O. Peters, J.W.-B. Lin, K. Hales, and C. E. Holloway, 2008: Rethinking convective quasi-equilibrium: Observational constraints for stochastic convective schemes in climatemodels. Philos. Trans. Roy. Soc. London, 366A, 2581-2604.
29. Neelin, J. D., O. Peters, and K. Hales, 2009: The transition to strong convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2367-2384.
30. Neelin, J. D., B. R. Lintner, B. Tian, Q. Li, L. Zhang, P. K. Patra, M. T. Chahine, and S. N. Stechmann, 2010: Long tails in deep columns of natural and anthropogenic tropospheric tracers. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L05804, doi:10.1029/2009GL041726.
31. Neggers, R. A. J., H. J. J. Jonker, and A. P. Siebesma, 2003: Size statistics of cumulus cloud populations in large-eddy simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 1060-1074.
32. Nesbitt, S. W., R. Cifelli, and S. A. Rutledge, 2006: Storm morphology and rainfall characteristics of TRMM precipitation features. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2702-2721.
33. Peters, O., and J. D. Neelin, 2006: Critical phenomena in atmospheric precipitation. Nat. Phys., 2, 393-396.
34. Peters, O., and J. D. Neelin, 2009: Atmospheric convection as a continuous phase transition: Further evidence. Int. J. Mod. Phys., 23B, 5453-5465.
35. Peters, O., C. Hertlein, and K. Christensen, 2002: A complexity view of rainfall. Phys. Rev. Lett., 88, 018701, doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett. 88.018701.
36. Peters, O., J. D. Neelin, and S. W. Nesbitt, 2009: Mesoscale convective systems and critical clusters. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 2913-2924.
37. Peters, O., A. Deluca, A. Corral, J. D. Neelin, and C. E. Holloway, 2010: Universality of rain event size distributions. J. Stat. Mech., P11030, doi:10.1088/1742-5468/2010/11/P11030.
38. Plant, R., and G. Craig, 2008: A stochastic parameterization for deep convection based on equilibrium statistics. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 87-105.
39. Ross, S., 1998: A First Course in Probability. 5th ed. Prentice Hall, 514 pp.
40. Sherwood, S. C., 1999: Convective precursors and predictability in the tropical western Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2977-2991.
41. Sherwood, S. C., and R. Wahrlich, 1999: Observed evolution of tropical deep convective events and their environment. J. Atmos. Sci., 127, 1777-1795.
42. Sobel, A. H., S. E. Yuter, C. S. Bretherton, and G. N. Kiladis, 2004: Large-scale meteorology and deep convection during TRMM KWAJEX. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 422-444.
43. Song, Y., C. Wikle, C. Anderson, and S. Lack, 2007: Bayesian estimation of stochastic parameterizations in a numerical weather forecasting model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 4045-4059.
44. Sornette, D., 2004: Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences. Springer Verlag, 528 pp.