Responses of European forest ecosystems to 21st century climate: Assessing changes in interannual variability and fire intensity

IForest

Volumn 4, Issue APRIL, 2011, Pages 82-99

  Dury, Marie ^a   Hambuckers, A ^a   Warnant, P ^a   Henrot, A ^a   Favre, E ^a   Ouberdous, M ^a   Francois L ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF LIÈGE   (Belgium)

Author keywords

Climate change; Fire disturbance; Modelling; Productivity; Soil water

Indexed keywords

EID: 80555151355     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19717458     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3832/ifor0572-004     Document Type: Article

References (96)

1. 2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta-analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy. New Phytologist 165: 351-371.-doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137. 2004.01224.x
2. 2 fertilization, and climate variability to the Eastern US carbon sink. Global Change Biology 12: 2370-2390.-doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006. 01254.x
3. Allard V, Ourcival JM, Rambal S, Joffre R, Rocheteau A (2008). Seasonal and annual variation of carbon exchange in an evergreen Mediterranean forest in southern France. Global Change Biology 14: 714-725.-doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486. 2008.01539.x
4. Arora VK, Boer GJ (2005). Fire as an interactive component of dynamic vegetation models. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences 110.-doi: 10.1029/2005JG000042
5. th EARSeL Symposium "Remote Sensing for a Changing Europe".
6. Ball JT, Woodrow IE, Berry JA (1987). A model predicting stomatal conductance and its contribution to the control of photosynthesis under different environmental conditions. In: "Progress in Photosynthesis Research 4" (Biggins J ed). Nijhoff, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 221.
7. Bohn U, Gollub G, Hettwer C, Neuhäuslová Z, Raus Th, Schlüter H, Weber H (2003). Karte der natürlichen vegetation Europas/Map of the Natural Vegetation of Europe, Maßstab/Scale 1: 2.500.000 (Bearb. eds). Interaktive/Interactive CD-ROM-Erläuterungstext, Legende, Karten/Explanatory Text, Legend, Maps. Landwirtschaftsverlag, Münster, Germany.
8. Box GEP, Jenkins JM (1970). Time series analysis, forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Francisco, CA, USA.
9. Box GEP, Tiao GC (1975). Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. Journal of the American Statistical Association 70: 70-79.-doi: 10.2307/2285379
10. Cao MK, Tao B, Li KR, Shao XM, Prience SD (2003). Inter-annual variation in terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes in China from 1981 to 1998. Acta Botanica Sinica 45: 552-560. [online] URL: http://sourcedb.igsnrr.cas.cn/zw/stxtsys/syslw/200906/P020090625724998756116.PDF
11. Cheddadi R, Vendramin GG, Litt T, Francois LM, Kageyama M, Lorentz S, Laurent JM, de Beaulieu JL, Sadori L, Jost A, Lunt D (2006). Imprints of glacial refugia in the modern genetic diversity of Pinus sylvestris. Global Ecology and Biogeography 15: 271-282.-doi: 10.1111/j.1466-822x.2006.00226.x
12. Chirici G, Barbati A, Maselli F (2007). Modelling of Italian forest net primary productivity by the integration of remotely sensed and GIS data. Forest Ecology and Management 246: 285-295.-doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2007.04.0
13. Ciais P, Reichstein M, Viovy N, et al. (2005). Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437: 529-533.-doi: 10.1038/nature03972
14. Cogley JG (1998). GGHYDRO-global hydrographic data, release 2.2 Data set. Department of Geography. Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada. [online] URL: http://www. trentu.ca/geography/glglgghy.htm
15. Collatz GJ, Ribas-Carbo M, Berry JA, (1992). Coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model for leaves of C4 plants. Australian Journal of Plant Physiology 19: 519-538.-doi: 10.1071/PP9920519
16. Coops NC, Waring RH (2001). Assessing forest growth across southwestern Oregon under a range of current and future global change scenarios using a process model, 3-PG. Global Change Biology 7: 15-29.-doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486. 2001.00385.x
17. De Groot RS, Wilson MA, Boumans RMJ (2002). A typology for the classification, description and valuation of ecosystem functions, goods and services. Ecological Economics 41: 393-408.-doi: 10.1016/S0921-8009(02)00089-7
18. De Pury DGG, Farquhar GD (1997). Simple scaling of photosynthesis from leaves to canopies without the errors of big-leaf models. Plant, Cell and Environment 20: 537-557.-doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3040.1997.00094.x
19. De Vries W (1988). Critical deposition levels for nitrogen and sulphur on Dutch forest ecosystems. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 42: 221-239.-doi: 10.1007/BF00282403
20. Dunn AL, Barford CC, Wofsy SC, Goulden ML, Daube BC (2007). A long-term record of carbon exchange in a boreal black spruce forest: means, responses to interannual variability, and decadal trends. Global Change Biology 13: 577-590.-doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01221.x
21. Duvigneaud P, Paulet E, Kestemont P, Tanghe M, Denayer de Smet S, Schnock G, Timperman J (1972). Productivité comparée d'une hêtraie (Fagetum) et d'une pessière (Piceetum), établies sur même roche-mère, à Mirwart (Ardenne luxembourgeoise). Bulletin de la Société Royale de Botanique de Belgique 152: 183-195.
22. Duvigneaud P (1984). La synthèse écologique. Populations, communautés, écosystèmes, biosphère, noosphère. Doin, Paris, France.
23. Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000). Climate extremes: observations, modelling, and impacts. Science 289: 2068-2074.-doi: 10.1126/science. 289.5487.2068
24. FAO (2006). Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005. Report on fires in the Mediterranean Region. Fire Management Working Paper 8. [online] URL: http://www.fao.org/forestry/site/firealerts/en
25. 2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species. Planta 149: 78-90.-doi: 10.1007/BF00386231
26. 2. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 104: 14014-14019.-doi: 10.1073/pnas.07065 18104
27. Flannigan MD, Karwchuk MA, De Groot WJ, Wotton BM, Gowman LM (2009). Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 483-507.-doi: 10.1071/WF08187
28. François LM, Delire C, Warnant P, Munhoven G (1998). Modelling the glacial-interglacial changes in the continental biosphere. Global Planetary Change 16-17 (1-4): 37-52.-doi: 10.1016/S0921-8181(98)00005-8
29. François LM, Goddéris Y, Warnant P, Ramstein G, de Noblet N, Lorenz S (1999). Carbon stocks and isotopic budgets of the terrestrial biosphere at mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum times. Chemical Geolology 159 (1-4): 163-189.-doi: 10.1016/S0009-2541(99)00039-X
30. François LM, Ghislain M, Otto D, Micheels A (2006). Late Miocene vegetation reconstruction with the CARAIB model. Palaeogeography Palaeoclimatology Palaeoecology 238: 302-320.-doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.03.034
31. Galy V, Francois LM, France-Lanord C, Faure P, Kudrass H, Palhol F, Singh SK (2008). C4 plants decline in the Himalayan basin since the Last Glacial Maximum. Quaternary Science Reviews 27: 1396-1409.-doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2008. 04.005
32. 2: contribution of subtropical ecosystems? Geophysical Research Letters 26: 243-246.-doi: 10.1029/1998GL900269
33. Gerdol R (2005). Growth performance of two deciduous Vaccinium species in relation to nutrient satus in subalpine heath. Flora 200: 168-174.-doi: 10.1016/j.flora.2004.05.003
34. Gerten D, Schaphoff S, Haberlandt U, Lucht W, Sitch S (2004). Terrestrial vegetation and water balance-hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model. Journal of Hydrology 286: 249-270.-doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09. 029
35. Gibelin AL, Déqué M (2003). Anthropogenic climate change over the Mediterranean region simulated by a global variable resolution model. Climate Dynamics 20: 327-339.
36. 2 enrichment. Tree Physiology 25: 1399-1408.-doi: 10.1093/treephys/25.11.1399
37. Gielen B, Verbeeck H, Neirynck J, Sampson DA, Vermeiren F, Janssens IA (2010). Decadal water balance of a temperate Scots pine forest (Pinus sylvestris L.) based on measurements and modelling. Biogeosciences 7: 1247-1261.-doi: 10.5194/bg-7-1247-2010
38. Giorgi F, Bi XQ, Pal J (2004a). Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. I. Climate change scenarios (1961-1990). Climate Dynamics 22: 733-756.-doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0409-x
39. Giorgi F, Bi XQ, Pal J (2004b). Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II. Climate change scenarios (2071-2100). Climate Dynamics 23: 839-858.-doi: 10.1007/s00382-004-0467-0
40. Goulden ML, Munger JW, Fan SM, Daube BC, Wofsy SC (1996). Exchange of carbon dioxide by a deciduous forest: Response to interannual climate variability. Science 271: 1576-1578.-doi: 10.1126/science.271.5255.1576
41. Granier A, Breda N, Longdoz B, Gross P, Ngao J (2008). Ten years of fluxes and stand growth in a young beech forest at Hesse, north-eastern France. Annals of Forest Science 65.-doi: 10.1051/forest:2008052
42. Hajar L, François LM, Khater C, Jomaa I, Déqué M, Cheddadi R (2010). Cedrus libani (A. Rich) distribution in Lebanon: Past, present and future. Comptes Rendus Biologies 333: 622-630.-doi: 10.1016/j.crvi.2010.05.003
43. Helmisaari HJ, Makkonen K, Kellomäki S, Valonen E, Mälkönen E (2002). Below-and above-ground biomass, production and nirogen use in Scots pine stands in eastern Finland. Forest Ecology and Management 165: 317-326.-doi: 10.1016/S0378-1127(01)00648-X
44. Hickler T, Fronzek S, Araujo MB, Schweiger O, Thuiller W, Sykes MT (2009). An ecosystem model-based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models. Global Ecology and Biogeography 18: 304-313.-doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00455.x
45. Hubert B, Francois LM, Warnant P, Strivay D (1998). Stochastic generation of meteorological variables and effects on global models of water and carbon cycles in vegetation and soils. Journal of Hydrology 212: 318-334.-doi: 10.1016/S0022-1694(98)00214-5
46. Jentsch A, Beierkuhnlein C (2008). Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 340: 621-628.-doi: 10.1016/j.crte.2008.07.002
47. JRC (2008). Forest fires in Europe 2007. Scientific and technical report 8 [online] URL: http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/programmes/eucomission/EU-Forest-Fires-in-Europe-2007.pdf
48. 2 responses: an issue of definition, time and resource supply. New Phytologist 172: 393-411.-doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137. 2006.01886.x
49. Kramer K, Degen B, Buschbom J, Hickler T, Thuiller W, Sykes MT, de Winter W (2010). Modelling exploration of the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under climate change-Range, abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response. Forest Ecology and Management 259: 2213-2222.-doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.12.023
50. Lagergren F, Eklundh L, Grelle A, Lundblad M, Molder M, Lankreijer H, Lindroth A (2005). Net primary production and light use efficiency in a mixed coniferous forest in Sweden. Plant Cell and Environment 28: 412-423.-doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3040.2004.01280.x
51. Laurent JM, Bar-Hen A, Francois LM, Ghislain M, Cheddadi R (2004). Refining vegetation simulation models: from plant functional types to bioclimatic affinity groups of plants. Journal of Vegetation Science 15: 739-746.
52. Laurent JM, Francois LM, Bar-Hen A, Bel L, Cheddadi R (2008). European bioclimatic affinity groups: Data-model comparisons. Global and Planetary Change 61: 28-40.-doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.08.017
53. 2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. Journal of Experimental Botany 60: 2859-2876.-doi: 10.1093/jxb/erp096
54. Leroy T (2007). Implémentation d'un module de feu dans un modèle dynamique global de végétation. Application sur la péninsule Ibérique et sur l'Europe de l'ouest. Master thesis, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium. (In French).
55. Lossaint P, Rapp M (1971). Le cycle du carbone dans les forêts de Pinus halepensis. In: Proceedings of Brussels Symposium "Productivity of forest ecosystems" (Duvigneaud P ed), pp. 213-216.
56. Lütkepohl H, Breitung J, Brüggemann R, Herwatz H, Teräsvirta T, Tschernig R, Krätzig M (2004). Applied time series econometrics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
57. 2 balance of boreal, temperate, and tropical forests derived from a global database. Global Change Biology 13: 2509-2537.-doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01439.x
58. Magnani F, Mencuccini M, Borghetti M et al. (2007). The human footprint in the carbon cycle of temperate and boreal forests. Nature 447: 848-850.-doi: 10.1038/nature05847
59. 2-induced enhancement of productivity and partitioning among aboveground carbon pools. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103: 19356-19361.-doi: 10.1073/pnas.0609448103
60. 2, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15: 183-206.-doi: 10.1029/2000GB001298
61. Medvigy D, Wofsy SC, Munger JW, Moorcroft PR (2010). Responses of terrestrial ecosystems and carbon budgets to current and future environmental variability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 107: 8275-8280.-doi: 10.1073/pnas.0912032107
62. Melillo JM, Mcguire AD, Kicklighter DW, Moore III B, Vorosmarty CJ, Schloss AL (1993). Global climate change and terrestrial net primary production. Nature 363: 234-240.-doi: 10.1038/363234a0
63. Mohamed MAA, Babiker IS, Chen ZM, Ikeda K, Ohta K, Kato K (2004). The role of climate variability in the inter-annual variation of terrestrial net primary production (NPP). Science of the Total Environment 332: 123-137.-doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2004.03.009
64. Möller CM, Müller D, Nielsen J (1954). Ein Diagramm der Stoffproduktion im Buchenwald. Det Forstlige Forsoegsvaesen i Danmark 21: 327-335.
65. Morales P, Hickler T, Rowell DP, Smith B, Sykes MT (2007). Changes in European ecosystem productivity and carbon balance driven by regional climate model output. Global Change Biology 13: 108-122.-doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006. 01289.x
66. Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, et al. (2000). Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
67. 2 exchange between the atmosphere and the land biosphere: a study with a global mechanistic vegetation model. Journal Geophysical Research 101 (D3): 7111-7125.-doi: 10.1029/95JD03656
68. New M, Hulme M, Jones P (1999). Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Journal of Climate 12: 829-856.-doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<0829:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2
69. New M, Lister D, Hulme M, Makin I (2002). A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas. Climate Research 21: 1-25.-doi: 10.3354/cr021001
70. Olesen JE, Carter TR, Diaz-Ambrona CH, Fronzek S, Heidmann T, Hickler T, Holt T, Minguez MI, Morales P, Palutikof JP, Quemada M, Ruiz-Ramos M, Rubaek GH, Sau F, Smith B, Sykes MT (2007). Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Climatic Change 81 (1): 123-143.-doi: 10.1007/s10584-006-9216-1
71. Otto D, Rasse D, Kaplan J, Warnant P, Francois LM (2002). Biospheric carbon stocks reconstructed at the Last Glacial Maximum: comparison between general circulation models using prescribed and computed sea surface temperatures. Global Planetary Change 33: 117-138.-doi: 10.1016/S0921-8181(02)00066-8
72. Parmesan C, Root TL, Willig MR (2000). Impacts of extreme weather and climate on terrestrial biota. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 81: 443-450.-doi: 10.1175/1520-0477 (2000)081<0443:IOEWAC>2.3.CO;2
73. Peng C, Zhou X, Zhao S, Wang X, Zhu B, Piao S, Fang J (2009). Quantifying the response of forest carbon balance to future climate change in Northeastern China: Model validation and prediction. Global and Planetary Change 66: 179-194.-doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.12.001
74. Perry DA (1994). Forest ecosystems. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, USA and London, UK.
75. Rowell DP (2005). A scenario of European climate change for the late twenty-first century: seasonal means and interannual variability. Climate Dynamics 25: 837-849.-doi: 10.1007/s00382-005-0068-6
76. Salas y Mélia D, Chauvin F, Déqué M, Douville H, Guérémy JF, Marquet P, Planton S, Royer JF, Tyteca S (2005). Description and validation of CNRM-CM3 global coupled climate model. Note de centre GMGEC, CNRM, 103.
77. Scholes RJ, Biggs R (2005). A biodiversity intactness index. Nature 434: 45-49.-doi: 10.1038/nature03289
78. Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R et al. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310: 1333-1337.-doi: 10.1126/science.1115233
79. Schulze ED, Koch W (1971). Measurement of primary production with cuvettes. In: Proceedings of Brussels Symposium "Productivity of forest ecosystems" (Duvigneaud P ed), pp. 141-157.
80. Schulze ED (1989). Air-pollution and forest decline in a spruce (Picea abies) forest. Science 244: 776-783.-doi: 10.1126/science.244.4906. 776
81. Sindani KT, Lejoly J (1990). Phytomass and productivity of 4 forests in the Alpes de Haute-Provence (Southern France). Belgian Journal of Botany 123: 103-116.
82. Sitch S, Smith B, Prentice IC, Arneth A, Bondeau A, Cramer W, Kaplan JO, Levis S, Lucht W, Sykes MT, Thonicke K, Venevsky S (2003). Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model. Global Change Biology 9: 161-185.-doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x
83. Stevens GC, Fox JF (1991). The causes of treeline. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 22: 177-191.-doi: 10.1146/annurev.es.22. 110191.001141
84. Tagesson T, Smith BR, Löfgren A, Ramming A, Eklundh L, Lindroth A (2009). Estimating net primary production of Swedish forest landscapes by combining mechanistic modelling and remote sensing. Ambio 38: 316-324.-doi: 10.1579/08-A-513.1
85. Thonicke K, Spessa A, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, Dong L, Carmona-Moreno C (2010). The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model. Biogeosciences 7: 1991-2011.-doi: 10.5194/bg-7-1991-2010
86. Thuiller W, Albert C, Araújo MB, Berry PM, Cabeza M, Guisan A, Hickler T, Midgley GF, Paterson J, Schurr F, Sykes MT, Zimmermann NE (2008). Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: Future challenges. Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics 9: 137-152.-doi: 10.1016/j.ppees.2007. 09.004
87. Turner DP, Ritts WD, Cohen WB, Gower ST, Running SW, Zhao MS, Costa MH, Kirschbaum AA, Ham JM, Saleska SR, Ahl DE (2006). Evaluation of MODIS NPP and GPP products across multiple biomes. Remote Sensing of Environment 102: 282-292.-doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2006. 02.017
88. Valentini R, De Angelis P, Matteucci G, Monaco R, Dore S, Scarascia Mugnozza GE (1996). Seasonal net carbon dioxide exchange of a beech forest with the atmosphere. Global Change Biology 2: 199-207.-doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486. 1996.tb00072.x
89. Van der Linden P, Mitchell JFB (2009). ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK. pp. 160.
90. Van Wijk M, Dekker S, Bouten W, Bosveld F, Kohsiek W, Kramer K, Mohren G (2000). Modelling daily gas exchange of a douglasfir forest: comparison of three stomatal conductance models with and without a soil water stress function. Tree Physiology 20: 115-122.-doi: 10.1093/treephys/20.2.115
91. Vazquez A, Perez B, Fernandez-Gonzalez F, Moreno JM (2002). Recent fire regime characteristics and potential natural vegetation relationships in Spain. Journal of Vegetation Science 13: 663-676.-doi: 10.1111/j.1654-1103.2002. tb02094.x
92. Warnant P (1999). Modélisation du cycle du carbone dans la biosphère continentale à l'échelle globale. PhD thesis, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium.
93. Warnant P, François LM, Strivay D, Gérard JC (1994). CARAIB: a global model of terrestrial biological productivity. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 8 (3): 255-270.-doi: 10.1029/94GB00850
94. Weissen F, Hambuckers A, Vanpraag HJ, Remacle J (1990). A decennial control of N-cycle in the Belgian Ardenne forest ecosystems. Plant and Soil 128: 59-66.-doi: 10.1007/BF00009396
95. Yuste JC, Konopka B, Janssens IA, Coenen K, Xiao CW, Ceulemans R (2005). Contrasting net primary productivity and carbon distribution between neighboring stands of Quercus robur and Pinus sylvestris. Tree Physiology 25: 701-712.-doi: 10.1093/treephys/25.6.701
96. Zhao MS, Heinsch FA, Nemani RR, Running SW (2005). Improvements of the MODIS terrestrial gross and net primary production global data set. Remote Sensing of Environment 95: 164-176.-doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2004.12.011