Probabilistic models for wind turbine and wind farm performance

Journal of Solar Energy Engineering, Transactions of the ASME

Volumn 133, Issue 4, 2011, Pages

  Arwade, Sanjay R ^a   Lackner, Matthew A ^a   Grigoriu, Mircea D ^b  

^a University of Massachusetts   (United States)

^b Cornell University   (United States)

Author keywords

availability; Markov chain; reliability; wind energy; wind farm

Indexed keywords

CAPACITY FACTORS; COMPONENT RELIABILITY; FIELD DATA; INPUT PARAMETER; LOADING EFFECTS; MARKOV CHAIN; MARKOV MODEL; MC SIMULATION; MEAN RESIDENCE TIME; MONTE CARLO SIMULATIONS; NON-GAUSSIAN; ON-OFF MODELS; OPERATING STATE; ORNSTEIN-UHLENBECK; PERFORMANCE METRICS; POWER CURVES; PROBABILISTIC MODELS; SEASONAL FLUCTUATIONS; SEASONAL VARIATION; SIMULATION RESULT; SITE-SPECIFIC; STOCHASTIC PROCESS; TURBINE CAPACITY; WIND FARM; WIND SPEED;

ELECTRIC UTILITIES; FARMS; MARKOV PROCESSES; RELIABILITY; STOCHASTIC MODELS; WIND POWER; WIND TURBINES;

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

EID: 80455144450     PISSN: 01996231     EISSN: 15288986     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1115/1.4004273     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Musial, W., 2007, "Offshore Wind Electricity: A Viable Energy Source for the Coastal United States", Mar. Technol. Soc. J., 41, pp. 32-43.
2. Windmonitor, 2010, www.windmonitor.de.
3. NOAA, 2010, "Matinicus rock, Maine", National Data Buoy Center, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov.
4. Echavarria, E., Hahn, B., van Bussel, G. J. W., and Tomiyama, T., 2008, "Reliability of Wind Turbine Technology Through Time", J. Sol. Energy Eng., 130, p. 031005.
5. Tavner, P. J., Edwards, C., Brinkman, A., and Spinato, F., 2006, "Influence of Wind Speed on Wind Turbine Reliability", Wind Eng., 30, pp. 55-72. (Pubitemid 43950636)
6. Tavner, P. J., Xiang, J., and Spinato, F., 2006, "Reliability Analysis for Wind Turbines", Wind Eng., 10, pp. 1-18. (Pubitemid 46192104)
7. Johnson, C., 2008, "Summary of Actual Versus Predicted Wind Farm Performance-Recap of Windpower 2008", 2008 AWEA Wind Resource Assessment Workshop, Portland, Oregon.
8. Leite, A. P., and Borges, C. L. T., and Falcao, D. M., 2006, "Probabilistic Wind Farms Generation Model for Reliability Studies Applied to Brazilian Sites", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., 21, pp. 1493-1501. (Pubitemid 46357746)
9. Arabian-Hoseynabadi, H., Tavner, P. J., and Oraee, H., 2010, "Reliability Comparison of Direct-Drive and Geared-Drive Wind Turbine Concepts", Wind Eng., 13, pp. 62-73.
10. Cheng, P. W., van Bussel, G. J. W., van Kuik, G. A. M., and Vugts, J. H., 2003, "Reliability Based Design Methods to Determine the Extreme Response Distribution of Offshore Wind Turbines", Wind Eng., 6, pp. 1-22. (Pubitemid 40290451)
11. Cheng, P. W., and van Bussel, G. J. W., 2000, "Assessment of Combined Extreme Load Conditions for Offshore Wind Turbines", Proceedings of the Tenth International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers, Seattle, Washington.
12. Cheng, P. W., van Kuik, G. A. M., van Bussel, G. J. W., and Vrouwenvelder, A. C. W. M., 2002, "Bayesian Analysis Applied to Statistical Uncertainties of Extreme Response Distributions of Offshore Wind Turbines", Wind Eng., 26, pp. 157-169. (Pubitemid 36080873)
13. Tarp-Johansen, N. J., 2005, "Partial Safety Factors and Characteristics Values for Combined Extreme Wind and Wave Load Effects", J. Sol. Energy Eng., 127, pp. 242-252 (Pubitemid 40715345)
14. Sorensen, J. D., Frandsen, S., and Tarp-Johansen, N. J., 2007, "Fatigue Reliability and Effective Turbulence Models in Wind Farms", Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering ICASP.
15. Sayas, F. C., and Allan, R. N., 1996, "Generation availability assessment of wind farms", IEE Proc.: Gener. Transm. Distrib., 143, pp. 507-518. (Pubitemid 126765859)
16. Sorensen, J. D., and Tarp-Johansen, N. J., 2005, "Reliability Based Optimization and Optimal Reliability Level of Offshore Wind Turbines", Int. J. Offshore Polar Eng., 15, pp. 141-146. (Pubitemid 40935996)
17. der Kiureghian, A., Ditlevsen, O. D., and Song, J., 2007, "Availability, Reliability and Downtime of Systems With Repairable Components", Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 92, pp. 231-242. (Pubitemid 44633657)
18. Barthelmie, R. J., Hansen, K., Frandsen, S. T., Rathmann, O., Schepers, J. G., Schlez, W., Phillips, J., Rados, K., Zervos, A., Politis, E. S., and Chaviaropoulos, P. K., 2009, "Modeling and Measuring Flow and Wind Turbine Wakes in Large Wind Farms Offshore", Wind Energy, 12, pp. 431-444.
19. NOAA, 2009, Ndbc - station mism1. National Data Buoy Center, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station-page.php?station=mism1.
20. Ross, S. M., 1983, Stochastic Processes, John Wiley and Sons, New York.
21. Resnick, S. I., 1998, A Probability Path, Birkhauser, Boston.
22. Grigoriu, M., 2002, Stochastic Calculus, Birkhauser, Boston.