Applying a spread model to identify the entry points from which the pine wood nematode, the vector of pine wilt disease, would spread most rapidly across Europe

Biological Invasions

Volumn 13, Issue 12, 2011, Pages 2981-2995

  Robinet, Christelle ^a   Van Opstal, Nico ^b   Baker, Richard ^c   Roques, Alain ^a  

^a Inst Natl de la Rech Agronom   (France)

^b European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization   (France)

^c FOOD AND ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH AGENCY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Accidental introduction; Climate change; Human activities; Invasion; Nematode

Indexed keywords

BIOLOGICAL INVASION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONIFEROUS TREE; DISEASE SPREAD; DISEASE VECTOR; EUROPEAN UNION; HUMAN ACTIVITY; NEMATODE; POPULATION REGULATION; PRIORITIZATION; RANGE EXPANSION;

EUROPE;

BURSAPHELENCHUS; BURSAPHELENCHUS XYLOPHILUS; COLEOPTERA;

EID: 80255136291     PISSN: 13873547     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10530-011-9983-0     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Anonymous (2007) Development of improved pest risk analysis techniques for quarantine pests, using pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, in Portugal as a model system. Final report of the EU project "Plant health risk and monitoring evaluation". Available at: http://www. forestresearch. gov. uk/website/forestresearch. nsf/ByUnique/INFD-7XRFX9 Accessed 26 March 2010.
2. Baker RHA, Battisti A, Bremmer J et al (2009) PRATIQUE: a research project to enhance pest risk analysis techniques in the European Union. EPPO Bull 39: 87-93.
3. Bergdahl DR (1988) Impact of pine wood nematode in North America: present and future. J Nematol 20: 260-265.
4. Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) (2005) Gridded population of the world version 3 (GPWv3): population density grids. Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University. Available at http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw. Accessed 27 Jan 2009.
5. Chang R, Chao J, Fan Y et al (1995) Investigation of the insect vector of pine wilt disease in Taïwan. Plant Prot Bull 37: 448.
6. Dropkin VH, Foudin A, Kondo E et al (1981) Pinewood nematode. A threat to US forests? Plant Dis 65: 1022-1027.
7. Dwinell LD (1997) The pinewood nematode: regulation and mitigation. Annu Rev Phytopathol 35: 153-166.
8. Elith J, Leathwick JR (2009) Species distribution models: ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 40: 677-697.
9. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP et al (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29: 129-151.
10. Evans HF, McNamara DG, Braasch H et al (1996) Pest risk analysis (PRA) for the territories of the European Union (as PRA area) on Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its vectors in the genus Monochamus. EPPO Bull 26: 199-249.
11. Evans S, Evans HF, Ikegami M (2008) Modeling PWN-induced wilt expression: a mechanistic approach. In: Mota M, Vieira P (eds) Pine Wilt disease: a worldwide threat to forest ecosystems. Springer, New York, pp 259-278.
12. Gilbert M, Grégoire J-C, Freise J (2004) Long-distance dispersal and human population density allow the prediction of invasive patterns in the horse chestnut leafminer Cameraria ohridella. J Anim Ecol 73: 459-468.
13. Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecolo Modelling 135: 147-186.
14. Hellrigl KG (1971) Die bionomie der Europaischen Monochamus - arten (Coleopt., Cerambycid.) und ihre bedeutung fur die forst- und holzwirtschaft. Redia 52: 367-509.
15. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL et al (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int J Clim 25: 1965-1978.
16. Hulme PE, Pyšek P, Nentwig W et al (2009a) Will threat of biological invasions unite the European Union? Science 324: 40-41.
17. ©2009 Springer Science+Business Media BV www. europe-aliens. org/pdf/chapter1. pdf. Accessed 14 May 2009.
18. Humphry SJ, Linit MJ (1989) Tethered flight of Monochamus carolinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) with respect to beetle age and sex. Environ Entomol 18: 124-126.
19. IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: B Metz, OR Davidson, PR Bosch, R Dave, LA Meyer (eds) Climate change 2007: mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
20. Kawabata K (1979) Dispersal of the Japanese pine sawyer, Monochamus alternatus, among small islands. In: Transaction of the 32nd Annual meeting of Kyushu Branch, the Japanese Forestry Society, pp 281-282.
21. Kobayashi F, Yamane A, Ikeda T (1984) The Japanese pine sawyer beetle as the vector of pine wilt disease. Annu Rev Entomol 29: 115-135.
22. Kriticos DJ, Randall RP (2001) A comparison of systems to analyse potential weed distributions. In: Groves RH, Panetta FD, Panetta JG (eds) Weed risk assessment. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne, pp 61-79.
23. Lai Y (1998) The different effect of practising two strategic ways to control the pine wilt disease. In: Proceedings of International Symposium Sustainability of pine forests in relation to pine wilt and decline, Tokyo (Japan, 27-28 Oct 1998).
24. Lai Y, Zhou Y, Yu L et al (1999) Cause of pine wilt disease infecting healthy pine forest. J Zhejiang For College 16: 425-429.
25. Lee SM, Choo HY, Park NC et al (1990) Nematodes and insects associated with dead trees, and pine wood nematode detection from the part of Monochamus alternatus. Korean J Appl Entomol 29: 14-19.
26. Liebhold AM, Tobin PC (2008) Population ecology of insect invasions and their management. Annu Rev Entomol 53: 387-408.
27. Linit MJ (1988) Nematode Vector relationships in the Pine wilt disease system. J Nematol 20: 227-235.
28. Linit M, Akbulut S (2003) Pine wood nematode phoresis: the impact on Monochamus carolinensis life functions. Nematol Monogr & Persp 1: 227-237.
29. Linit MJ, Kondo E, Smith MT (1983) Insects Associated with the Pinewood Nematode, Bursaphelenchus-xylophilus (Nematoda, Aphelenchoididae), in Missouri. Environ Entomol 12: 467-470.
30. Lippitt CD, Rogan J, Toledano J et al (2008) Incorporating anthropogenic variables into a species distribution model to map gypsy moth risk. Ecol Model 210: 339-350.
31. Lobo JM, Jiménez-Valverde A, Hortal J (2010) The uncertain nature of absences and their importance in species distribution modelling. Ecography 33: 103-114.
32. Ma R-Y, Hao S-G, Kong W-N et al (2006) Cold hardiness as a factor for assessing the potential distribution of the Japanese pine sawyer Monochamus alternatus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Ann For Sci 63: 449-456.
33. Mamiya Y (1972) Pine wood nematode, Bursaphelenchus lignicolus Mamiya and Kiyohara, as a causal agent of pine wilting disease. Rev Plant Prot Res 5: 46-60.
34. Mamiya Y (1984) The pine wood nematode. In: Nickle WR (ed) Plant and insect nematodes. Marcel Dekker, New-York, pp 589-626.
35. Meehl GA, Stocker TF, Collins WD et al (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, pp 747-845.
36. Meentemeyer RK, Anacker BL, Mark W, Rizzo D (2008) Early detection of an emerging forest disease using dispersal estimation and ecological niche modelling. Ecol Appl 18: 377-390.
37. Mota MM, Braasch H, Bravo MA et al (1999) First report of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Portugal and in Europe. Nematology 1: 727-734.
38. Mota MM, Futai K, Vieira P (2009) Pine wilt disease and the pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. In: Ciancio A, Mukerji KG (eds) Integrated management of fruit crops and forest nematodes. Springer science, pp 253-274. doi: 10. 1007/978-1-4020-9858-1_11.
39. Muirhead JR, Leung B, van Overdijk C et al (2006) Modelling local and long-distance dispersal of invasive emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera) in North America. Divers Distrib 12: 71-79.
40. Murray JD (2002) Mathematical biology i: an introduction. Interdisciplinary applied mathematics, 17, 3rd edn. Springer, New York.
41. Økland B, Skarpaas O, Schroeder M, Magnusson C, Lindelöw A, Thunes K (2010) Is eradication of the pinewood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) likely? An evaluation of current contingency plans. Risk Anal 30: 1424-1439.
42. Penas AC, Bravo MA, Naves P et al (2006) Species of Bursaphelenchus Fuchs, 1937 (Nematoda: Parasitaphelenchidae) and other nematode genera associated with insects from Pinus pinaster in Portugal. Ann Appl Biol 148: 121-131.
43. Pérez G, Díez JJ, Ibeas F et al (2008) Assessing pine wilt disease risk under a climate change scenario in Northwestern Spain. In: Bravo F et al (eds) Managing forest ecosystems: the challenge of climate change. pp, Springer Science, pp 269-282.
44. Pimentel D, Zuniga R, Morrison D (2005) Update on the environmental and economic costs associated with alien-invasive species in the Unites-States. Ecol Econ 52: 273-288.
45. Pitt JPW, Worner SP, Suarez AV (2009) Predicting Argentine ant spread over the heterogeneous landscape using a spatially explicit stochastic model. Ecol Appl 19: 1176-1186.
46. Robinet C, Roques A, Pan H et al (2009) Role of human-mediated dispersal in the spread of the pinewood nematode in China. PLoS ONE 4(2): e4646. doi: 10. 1371/journal. pone. 0004646.
47. Rodrigues JM (2008) National eradication programme for the pinewood nematode. In: Mota MM, Vieira PR (eds) Pine wilt disease: a worldwide threat to forest. Springer Science+Business Media BV. ISBN: 978-1-4020-8454-6, pp 5-14.
48. Roques A, Rabitsch W, Rasplus J-Y et al (2009) Alien terrestrial invertebrates of Europe. In: Handbook of alien species in Europe. ISBN: 978-1-4020-8279-5 e-ISBN: 978-1-4020-8280-1 Library of Congress Control Number: 2008933943©2009 Springer Science+Business Media BV.
49. Roura-Pascual N, Bas JM, Thuiller W, Hui C, Krug RM, Brotons L (2009) From introduction to equilibrium: reconstructing the invasive pathways of the Argentine ant in a Mediterranean region. Glob Change Biol 15: 2101-2115.
50. Rutherford TA, Webster JM (1987) Distribution of pine wilt disease with respect to temperature in North America, Japan, and Europe. Can J For Res 17: 1050-1059.
51. Rutherford TA, Mamiya Y, Webster JM (1990) Nematode-induced pine wilt disease: factors influencing its occurrence and distribution. For Sci 36: 145-155.
52. Shigesada N, Kawasaki K (1997) Biological invasions: theory and practice. In: Oxford series in ecology and evolution, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
53. Sousa E, Bravo MA, Pires J et al (2001) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus (Nematoda; Aphelenchoididae) associated with Monochamus galloprovincialis (Coleoptera; Cerambycidae) in Portugal. Nematology 3: 89-91.
54. Sousa E, Naves P, Bonifácio L et al (2002) Preliminary survey for insects associated with Bursaphelenchus xylophilus in Portugal. EPPO Bull 32: 499-502.
55. Suzuki K (2002) Pine wilt disease-a threat to pine forest in Europe. Dendrobiology 48: 71-74.
56. Takasu F (2009) Individual-based modeling of the spread of pine wilt disease: vector beetle dispersal and the Allee effect. Popul Ecol 51: 399-409.
57. Takasu F, Yamamoto N, Kawasaki K et al (2000) Modeling the expansion of an introduced tree disease. Biol Inv 2: 141-150.
58. R Development Core Team (2009) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www. R-project. org.
59. Togashi K (1990) A field experiment on dispersal of newly emerged adults of Monochamusalternatus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). Res Popul Ecol 32: 1-13.
60. Togashi K, Shigesada N (2006) Spread of the pinewood nematode vectored by the Japanese pine sawyer: modeling and analytical approaches. Popul Ecol 48: 271-283.
61. Tröltzsch K, van Brusselen J, Schuck A (2009) Spatial occurrence of major tree species groups in Europe derived from multiple data sources. For Ecol & Manag 257: 294-302. doi: 10. 1016/j. foreco. 2008. 09. 012.
62. Václavík T, Meentemeyer RK (2009) Invasive species distribution modelling (iSDM): are absence data and dispersal constraints needed to predict actual distributions? Ecol Model 220: 3248-3258.
63. Work TT, McCullough DG, Cavey JF et al (2005) Arrival rate of non-indigenous insect species into the United-States through foreign trade. Biol Inv 7: 323-332.
64. Yang B (2004) The history, dispersal and potential threat of pine wood nematode in China. In: Mota M and Vieira P (eds) The pinewood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus. In: Brill, E. J Proceedings of an International Workshop, University of Evora, Portugal, August 20-22, 2001. Nematology monographs and perspectives, vol 1. Leiden, The Netherlands, pp. 21-24.