메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 45, Issue 10, 2011, Pages 1031-1042

The future tourism mobility of the world population: Emission growth versus climate policy

Author keywords

Backcasting; Climate change; Mitigation; Mobility; Scenarios; Tourism

Indexed keywords

CARRIER MOBILITY; EMISSION CONTROL; POPULATION STATISTICS; PUBLIC POLICY; TOURISM;

EID: 80054019750     PISSN: 09658564     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2009.11.004     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (138)

References (61)
  • 1
    • 13644280758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sustainable air transport - on track in 2050
    • Åkerman J. Sustainable air transport - on track in 2050. Transportation Research Part D 2005, 10(2):111-126.
    • (2005) Transportation Research Part D , vol.10 , Issue.2 , pp. 111-126
    • Åkerman, J.1
  • 2
    • 33645992739 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How much transport can the climate stand? - Sweden on a sustainable path in 2050
    • Åkerman J., Höjer M. How much transport can the climate stand? - Sweden on a sustainable path in 2050. Energy Policy 2006, 34(14):1944-1957.
    • (2006) Energy Policy , vol.34 , Issue.14 , pp. 1944-1957
    • Åkerman, J.1    Höjer, M.2
  • 3
    • 0034792617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic simulation and environmental policy analysis: beyond comparative statics and the environmental Kuznets Curve
    • Anderson D., Cavendish W. Dynamic simulation and environmental policy analysis: beyond comparative statics and the environmental Kuznets Curve. Oxford Economic Papers 2001, 53:721-746.
    • (2001) Oxford Economic Papers , vol.53 , pp. 721-746
    • Anderson, D.1    Cavendish, W.2
  • 5
    • 33847666070 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Growth scenarios for EU and UK aviation: contradictions with climate policy
    • Tyndall Centre Working Paper 84. Tyndall Centre.
    • Bows, A., Upham, P., Anderson, K., 2006b. Growth scenarios for EU and UK aviation: contradictions with climate policy. Tyndall Centre Working Paper 84. Tyndall Centre.
    • (2006)
    • Bows, A.1    Upham, P.2    Anderson, K.3
  • 6
    • 80054022044 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Technologies, scenarios and uncertainties
    • E-CLAT Technical Seminar "Policy Dialogue on Tourism, Transport and Climate Change: Stakeholders Meet Researchers", March 15, 2007, Paris, France, UNESCO.
    • Bows, A., Anderson, K., Peeters, P., 2007. Technologies, scenarios and uncertainties. In: E-CLAT Technical Seminar "Policy Dialogue on Tourism, Transport and Climate Change: Stakeholders Meet Researchers", March 15, 2007, Paris, France, UNESCO.
    • (2007)
    • Bows, A.1    Anderson, K.2    Peeters, P.3
  • 7
    • 20444437996 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
    • Bradfield R., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., van Der Heijden K. The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures 2005, 37:795-812.
    • (2005) Futures , vol.37 , pp. 795-812
    • Bradfield, R.1    Wright, G.2    Burt, G.3    Cairns, G.4    van Der Heijden, K.5
  • 8
    • 77949289141 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Butterworth Heinemann, Oxford, D. Buhalis, C. Costa (Eds.)
    • Tourism Business Frontiers 2005, Butterworth Heinemann, Oxford. D. Buhalis, C. Costa (Eds.).
    • (2005) Tourism Business Frontiers
  • 9
    • 80054030549 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Limits to tourism? A backcasting scenario for a sustainable tourism mobility in 2050
    • Symposium "The End of Tourism? Mobility and Local-Global Connections", June 2005, CTPS, Eastbourne.
    • Ceron, J.P., Dubois, G., 2005. Limits to tourism? A backcasting scenario for a sustainable tourism mobility in 2050. In: Symposium "The End of Tourism? Mobility and Local-Global Connections", June 2005, CTPS, Eastbourne.
    • (2005)
    • Ceron, J.P.1    Dubois, G.2
  • 11
    • 80054048692 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Normative forecasting
    • American Council for the United Nations University, J.C. Glenn, T.J. Gordon (Eds.)
    • Coates J.F., Glenn J.C. Normative forecasting. Future Research Methodology. The Millennium Project 2003, American Council for the United Nations University. J.C. Glenn, T.J. Gordon (Eds.).
    • (2003) Future Research Methodology. The Millennium Project
    • Coates, J.F.1    Glenn, J.C.2
  • 12
    • 80054032680 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conseil Général des Ponts et Chaussées
    • Démarche prospective transports 2050. Ministère des Transports, de l'Equipement, du tourisme et de la Mer, Paris.
    • Conseil Général des Ponts et Chaussées, 2006. Démarche prospective transports 2050. Ministère des Transports, de l'Equipement, du tourisme et de la Mer, Paris.
    • (2006)
  • 15
    • 80054038482 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tourism and climate change: Luxury and inequality in the access to mobility
    • Institute for Advanced Studies, Lancaster
    • Dubois G. Tourism and climate change: Luxury and inequality in the access to mobility. Luxury Consumption and Tourism Landscapes, September 11th 2008 2008, Institute for Advanced Studies, Lancaster.
    • (2008) Luxury Consumption and Tourism Landscapes, September 11th 2008
    • Dubois, G.1
  • 16
    • 77649183780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How heavy will the burden be? Using scenario analysis to assess future tourism greenhouse gas emissions
    • NHTV, Breda, P.M. Peeters (Ed.)
    • Dubois G., Ceron J.P. How heavy will the burden be? Using scenario analysis to assess future tourism greenhouse gas emissions. Tourism and Climate Change Mitigation. Methods, Greenhouse Gas Reductions and Policies 2007, 189-207. NHTV, Breda. P.M. Peeters (Ed.).
    • (2007) Tourism and Climate Change Mitigation. Methods, Greenhouse Gas Reductions and Policies , pp. 189-207
    • Dubois, G.1    Ceron, J.P.2
  • 17
    • 80054044644 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • EEA PRELUDE, 2008. Prospective environmental analysis of land use development in Europe. (01.10.08).
    • EEA PRELUDE, 2008. Prospective environmental analysis of land use development in Europe. (01.10.08). http://www.eea.europa.eu/multimedia/interactive/prelude-scenarios/prelude.
  • 18
    • 80054043702 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ENERDATA, 2004. Un scenario de transports écologiquement viables en France en 2030. Grenoble.
    • ENERDATA, 2004. Un scenario de transports écologiquement viables en France en 2030. Grenoble.
  • 19
    • 80054025109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Futuribles Rapport d'étude prospective pour l'élaboration de scénarios exploratoires sur les transports en 2050
    • Futuribles, Paris
    • Futuribles Rapport d'étude prospective pour l'élaboration de scénarios exploratoires sur les transports en 2050 2005, Futuribles, Paris.
    • (2005)
  • 21
    • 32544438805 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The future of tourism research
    • CABI, Wallingford, P. Burns, C. Palmer, B. Ritchie (Eds.)
    • Hall C.M. The future of tourism research. Tourism Research Methods: Integrating Theory with Practice 2005, 221-229. CABI, Wallingford. P. Burns, C. Palmer, B. Ritchie (Eds.).
    • (2005) Tourism Research Methods: Integrating Theory with Practice , pp. 221-229
    • Hall, C.M.1
  • 26
    • 0000167827 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aircraft emissions: current inventions and future scenarios
    • Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, J.E. Penner, D.H. Lister, D.J. Griggs, D.J. Dokken, M. McFarland (Eds.)
    • Henderson S.C., Wickrama U.K. Aircraft emissions: current inventions and future scenarios. Aviation and the Global Atmosphere; A Special Report of IPCC Working Groups I and III 1999, 185-215. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. J.E. Penner, D.H. Lister, D.J. Griggs, D.J. Dokken, M. McFarland (Eds.).
    • (1999) Aviation and the Global Atmosphere; A Special Report of IPCC Working Groups I and III , pp. 185-215
    • Henderson, S.C.1    Wickrama, U.K.2
  • 27
    • 80054027267 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IMAGE-team, 2006. The IMAGE 2.2 Implementation of the SRES Scenarios. A Comprehensive Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change and Impacts in the 21st Century CD-ROM 500110001 (former 481508018). National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven.
    • IMAGE-team, 2006. The IMAGE 2.2 Implementation of the SRES Scenarios. A Comprehensive Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change and Impacts in the 21st Century CD-ROM 500110001 (former 481508018). National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven.
  • 28
    • 80054051440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IPCC, 2000. Special report on emission scenarios. International Panel on Climate Change, ISBN-10: 0521800811 (web version).
    • IPCC, 2000. Special report on emission scenarios. International Panel on Climate Change, ISBN-10: 0521800811 (web version).
  • 29
    • 80054019377 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IPCC, 2008a. Climate change 2007: mitigation of climate change. IPCC fourth assessment report, working group III. International Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
    • IPCC, 2008a. Climate change 2007: mitigation of climate change. IPCC fourth assessment report, working group III. International Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
  • 30
    • 80054046836 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IPCC, 2008b. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Summary for policy makers. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. International Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
    • IPCC, 2008b. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Summary for policy makers. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. International Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.
  • 31
    • 80054014281 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Une heure de transport par jour: un dogme écorné
    • Joly, I., 2008. Une heure de transport par jour: un dogme écorné. Predit Recherche et Synthèses 42 (February).
    • (2008) Predit Recherche et Synthèses , vol.42 , Issue.FEBRUARY
    • Joly, I.1
  • 33
    • 80054022281 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Laboratoire d'économie des transports and ENERDATA
    • Comment satisfaire les objectifs de la France en terme d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de pollution transfrontières? PREDIT, Ministère chargé des transports, Paris.
    • Laboratoire d'économie des transports and ENERDATA, 2008. Comment satisfaire les objectifs de la France en terme d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de pollution transfrontières? PREDIT, Ministère chargé des transports, Paris.
    • (2008)
  • 34
    • 80054013147 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • LET/LASURE, 2006. La croissance des budgets-temps des transports en question: nouvelles approches. Final report PREDIT research program. Inrets, Paris.
    • LET/LASURE, 2006. La croissance des budgets-temps des transports en question: nouvelles approches. Final report PREDIT research program. Inrets, Paris.
  • 37
    • 80054047752 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Prospectives pour l'environnement
    • (Ed.), Quelles recherches? Quelles ressources? Quelles méthodes? La documentation française, Paris.
    • Mermet, L. (Ed.), 2003. Prospectives pour l'environnement. Quelles recherches? Quelles ressources? Quelles méthodes? La documentation française, Paris.
    • (2003)
    • Mermet, L.1
  • 39
    • 80054034441 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trendanalyse van het Nederlandse vakantiegedrag van 1969 to 2040. Vakantiekilometers en hun milieu-effecten zullen spectaculair blijven stijgen. E 4922 18-02-2007. TNS NIPO, Amsterdam.
    • Mulder, S., Schalekamp, A., Sikkel, D., Zengerink, E., van der Horst, T., van Velzen, J., 2007. Trendanalyse van het Nederlandse vakantiegedrag van 1969 to 2040. Vakantiekilometers en hun milieu-effecten zullen spectaculair blijven stijgen. E 4922 18-02-2007. TNS NIPO, Amsterdam.
    • (2007)
    • Mulder, S.1    Schalekamp, A.2    Sikkel, D.3    Zengerink, E.4    van der Horst, T.5    van Velzen, J.6
  • 40
    • 0003564167 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, N. Nakićenović, R. Swart (Eds.)
    • Special Report on Emission Scenario's. Summary for Policymakers 2000, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge. N. Nakićenović, R. Swart (Eds.).
    • (2000) Special Report on Emission Scenario's. Summary for Policymakers
  • 42
    • 77649181116 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exploring tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints
    • Peeters P.M., Dubois G. Exploring tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints. Journal of Transport Geography 2009, 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.09.003.
    • (2009) Journal of Transport Geography
    • Peeters, P.M.1    Dubois, G.2
  • 45
    • 0042731488 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations
    • Prideaux B., Laws E., Faulkner B. Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations. Tourism Management 2003, 24(4):475-487.
    • (2003) Tourism Management , vol.24 , Issue.4 , pp. 475-487
    • Prideaux, B.1    Laws, E.2    Faulkner, B.3
  • 47
    • 0002370644 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Regularities in travel demand: an international perspective
    • Schafer A. Regularities in travel demand: an international perspective. Journal of Transportation and Statistics 2000, 3(3):1-31.
    • (2000) Journal of Transportation and Statistics , vol.3 , Issue.3 , pp. 1-31
    • Schafer, A.1
  • 48
    • 0032599725 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions
    • Schafer A., Victor D.G. Global passenger travel: implications for carbon dioxide emissions. Energy 1999, 24(8):657-679.
    • (1999) Energy , vol.24 , Issue.8 , pp. 657-679
    • Schafer, A.1    Victor, D.G.2
  • 49
    • 80054039553 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Shell People and Connections. Global Scenarios to 2020
    • Shell International, Ltd., London
    • Shell People and Connections. Global Scenarios to 2020 2002, Shell International, Ltd., London.
    • (2002)
  • 50
    • 33845329940 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Domestic tradable quotas: a policy instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy use
    • Tyndall Technical Report No. 39. Tyndall Centre.
    • Starkey, R., Anderson, K., 2005. Domestic tradable quotas: a policy instrument for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from energy use. Tyndall Technical Report No. 39. Tyndall Centre.
    • (2005)
    • Starkey, R.1    Anderson, K.2
  • 52
    • 33751299473 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cross-roads of planet earth's life. Exploring means to meet the 2010-biodiversity target
    • MNP report 555050001/2006. Milieu en Natuur Planbureau, Bilthoven.
    • ten Brink, B.J.E., 2006. Cross-roads of planet earth's life. Exploring means to meet the 2010-biodiversity target. MNP report 555050001/2006. Milieu en Natuur Planbureau, Bilthoven.
    • (2006)
    • ten Brink, B.J.E.1
  • 53
    • 80054050261 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thomson. A future-gazing study of how holidays are set to change over the next twenty years
    • Thomson. A future-gazing study of how holidays are set to change over the next twenty years. The Thomson future holiday forum.
    • The Thomson future holiday forum.
  • 54
    • 19944377787 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What is a sustainable level of CO2 emissions from transport activity in the UK in 2050?
    • Tight M.R., Bristow A.L., Pridmore A., May A.D. What is a sustainable level of CO2 emissions from transport activity in the UK in 2050?. Transport Policy 2005, 12:235-244.
    • (2005) Transport Policy , vol.12 , pp. 235-244
    • Tight, M.R.1    Bristow, A.L.2    Pridmore, A.3    May, A.D.4
  • 56
    • 56649089904 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • UNWTO-UNEP-WMO Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges
    • UNWTO, Madrid
    • UNWTO-UNEP-WMO Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges 2008, UNWTO, Madrid.
    • (2008)
  • 58
    • 0032124562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long-term scenarios for aviation: demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx
    • Vedantham A., Oppenheimer M. Long-term scenarios for aviation: demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx. Energy Policy 1998, 26(8):625-641.
    • (1998) Energy Policy , vol.26 , Issue.8 , pp. 625-641
    • Vedantham, A.1    Oppenheimer, M.2
  • 59
    • 70350619425 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WBCSD Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenge to Sustainability
    • World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Conches, Genève
    • WBCSD Mobility 2030: Meeting the Challenge to Sustainability 2004, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Conches, Genève.
    • (2004)


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.