Availability of a pediatric trauma center in a disaster surge decreases triage time of the pediatric surge population: A population kinetics model

Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2011, Pages

  Barthel, Erik R ^a   Pierce, James R ^a   Goodhue, Catherine J ^a   Ford, Henri R ^a   Grikscheit, Tracy C ^a   Upperman, Jeffrey S ^a  

^a CHILDREN S HOSPITAL LOS ANGELES   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CHILD; COHORT ANALYSIS; DISASTER; EMERGENCY HEALTH SERVICE; HOSPITAL; HUMAN; KINETICS; MORTALITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; STATISTICS; TIME;

CHILD; COHORT STUDIES; DISASTERS; HOSPITALS, PEDIATRIC; HUMANS; KINETICS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MORTALITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; TIME FACTORS; TRAUMA CENTERS; TRIAGE;

EID: 80053930555     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17424682     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1186/1742-4682-8-38     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Early disaster response in Haiti: the Israeli field hospital experience. Kreiss Y, Merin O, Peleg K, Levy G, Vinker S, et al. Ann Int Med 2010 153 45 48 20442270
2. The 2011 magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: mosaicking the megathrust from seconds to centuries. Simons M, Minson SE, Sladen A, Ortega F, Jiang J, et al. Science 2011 332 1421 1425 10.1126/science.1206731 21596953
3. The science of surge. Kelen GD, McCarthy ML, Acad Emerg Med 2006 13 1089 1094 10.1111/j.1553-2712.2006.tb01627.x 17085736 (Pubitemid 44636269)
4. Developing models for patient flow and daily surge capacity research. Asplin BR, Flottemesch TJ, Gordon BD, Acad Emerg Med 2006 13 1109 1113 10.1111/j.1553-2712.2006.tb01632.x 17015412 (Pubitemid 44642348)
5. Population-based triage management in response to surge-capacity requirements during a large-scale bioevent disaster. Burkle FM, Acad Emerg Med 2006 13 118 1129
6. Annual bed statistics give a misleading picture of hospital surge capacity. DeLia D, Ann Emerg Med 2006 48 384 388 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2006.01. 024 16997673 (Pubitemid 44429988)
7. Disaster preparedness, triage, and surge capacity for hospital definitive care areas: optimizing outcomes when demands exceed resources. Roccaforte JD, Cushman JG, Anesthesiol Clin 2007 25 161 177 10.1016/j.anclin.2007.01.002 17400163 (Pubitemid 46497895)
8. The surge capacity for people in emergencies (SCOPE) study in Australasian hospitals. Traub M, Bradt DA, Joseph AP, Med J Australia 2007 186 394 398 17437392 (Pubitemid 46695382)
9. Ability of regional hospitals to meet projected avian flu pandemic surge capacity requirements. Ten Eyck RP, Prehosp Disaster Med 2008 23 103 112 18557289
10. Integrated plan to augment surge capacity. Dayton C, Ibrahim J, Augenbraun M, Brooks S, Mody K, et al. Prehosp Disaster Med 2008 23 113 119 18557290
11. A rapid medical screening process improves emergency department patient flow during surge associated with novel H1N1 virus. Fagbuyi DB, Brown KM, Mathison DJ, Kingsnorth J, Morrison S, et al. Ann Emerg Med 2011 57 52 59 10.1016/j.annemergmed.2010.08.026 20947207
12. Effect of hospital staff surge capacity on preparedness for a conventional mass casualty event. Welzel TB, Koenig KL, Bey T, Visser E, West J Emerg Med 2010 11 189 196 20823971
13. Recommendations for modeling disaster responses in public health and medicine: a position paper of the Society for Medical Decision Making. Brandeau ML, Mccoy JH, Hupert N, Holty JE, Bravata DM, Med Decision Making 2009 29 438 460 10.1177/0272989X09340346
14. Using queueing theory to increase the effectiveness of emergency department provider staffing. Green LV, Soares J, Giglio JF, Green RA, Acad Emerg Med 2006 13 61 68 10.1111/j.1553-2712.2006.tb00985.x 16365329 (Pubitemid 41827294)
15. A queueing model for bed-occupancy management and planning of hospitals. Gorunescu F, McClean SI, Millard PH, J Op Res Soc 2002 53 19 24 10.1057/palgrave/jors/2601244 (Pubitemid 34452475)
16. Hospital manpower planning by use of queueing theory. Gupta I, Zoreda J, Kramer N, Health Serv Res 1971 6 76 82 5569229
17. Queueing for medical care. Bailey NTJ, J Royal Stat Soc 1954 3 137 145
18. The theory of probabilities and telephone conversations. Erlang AK, Nyt Tidsskrift Mat B 1909 20 33 39
19. The first Erlang century-and the next. Kingman JFC, Queueing Syst 2009 63 3 12 10.1007/s11134-009-9147-4
20. Gross D, Shortle JF, Thompson JM, Harris CM, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken 2008
21. Applications of Queueing Theory. Newell GF, Chapman and Hall, London 1971
22. Elements of Queueing Theory with Applications. Saaty TL, McGraw Hill, New York 1961
23. Zychlinski N, Analyzing and modeling mass casualty events in hospitals-an operational view via fluid models MSc Research Proposal, Technion-Israel Institution of Technology 2011 http://iew3.technion.ac.il/serveng/References/ references.html accessed 30 May 2011
24. Fluid and diffusion limits for queues in slowly changing environments. Choudhury GL, Mandelbaum A, Reiman MI, Whitt W, Stoch Mod 1997 13 121 146 10.1080/15326349708807417 (Pubitemid 127761584)
25. Hierarchical modeling of stochastic netwoks, part I: fluid models. Chen H, Mandelbaum A, Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Manufacturing Systems. New York Springer-Verlag, Yao DD, 1994 Chapter 2 47 106
26. Responding to unexpected overloads in large-scale service systems. Perry O, Whitt W, Management Sci 2009 55 1353 1367 10.1287/mnsc.1090.1025
27. Differential equation approximations for Markov chains. Darling RWR, Norris JR, Prob Surveys 2008 5 37 79
28. An ODE for an overloaded × model involving a stochastic averaging principle. Perry O, Whitt W, Stoch Syst 2011 1 1 50
29. Emergency department surge: models and practical implications. Nager AL, Khanna K, J Trauma Inj Infect Crit Care 2009 67 96 S99 10.1097/TA. 0b013e3181ad2aaa
30. Triage and trauma workload in mass casualty: a computer model. Hirshberg A, Frykberg ER, Mattox KL, Stein M, J Trauma Inj Infect Crit Care 2010 69 1074 1081 10.1097/TA.0b013e3181e50624
31. Modeling the logistics of response to anthrax bioterrorism. Zaric GS, Bravata DM, Cleophas Holty J-E, McDonald KM, Owens DK, et al. Med Dec Mak 2008 28 332 351 10.1177/0272989X07312721 (Pubitemid 351713300)
32. Equilibrium and nonequilibrium concepts in ecological models. Deangelis DL, Waterhouse JC, Ecolog Monogr 1987 32 53 65
33. Laidler KJ, Chemical Kinetics HarperCollins 3 New York, 1987 HarperCollins
34. Applying the principles of chemical kinetics to population growth problems. Swiegers GF, J Chem Ed 1993 70 364 367 10.1021/ed070p364
35. Disaster and mass casualty events in the pediatric population. Burke RV, Iverson E, Goodhue CJ, Neches RN, Upperman JS, Sem Pediatr Surg 2010 19 265 270 10.1053/j.sempedsurg.2010.06.003
36. Disparities in the delivery of pediatric trauma care. Petrosyan M, Guner YS, Emami CN, Ford HR, J Trauma Inj Infect Crit Care 2009 67 114 S119 10.1097/TA.0b013e3181ad3251
37. Hospital bed surge capacity in the event of a mass-casualty incident. Davis DP, Poste JC, Hicks T, Polk D, Rymer TE, et al. Prehosp Disast Med 2005 20 169 176
38. Bevington PR, Robinson DK, Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences McGraw Hill Boston, 2003 146
39. Sensitivity analysis of ordinary differential equation systems-a direct method. Dickinson RP, Gelinas RJ, J Computat Phys 1976 21 123 143 10.1016/0021-9991(76)90007-3
40. On the statistical sensitivity analysis of models for chemical kinetics. Atherton RW, Schainker RB, Ducot ER, AIChE J 1975 21 441 448 10.1002/aic.690210304
41. Sensitivity analysis in chemical kinetics. Rabitz H, Kramer M, Dacol D, Ann Rev Phys Chem 1983 34 419 461 10.1146/annurev.pc.34.100183.002223
42. Sensitivity analysis of complex kinetic systems. Tools and applications. Turányi T, J Math Chem 1990 5 203 248 10.1007/BF01166355
43. Annual summary of vital statistics: 2006. Martin JA, Kung HC, Mathews TJ, Hoyert DL, Strobino DM, Guyer B, Sutton SR, Pediatrics 2008 121 788 801 10.1542/peds.2007-3753 18381544
44. Morbidity and mortality of hospitalized patients after the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji earthquake. Tanaka H, Oda J, Iwai A, Kuwagata Y, Matsuoka T, Takaoka M, Kishi M, Morimoto F, Ishikawa K, Mizushima Y, Nakata Y, Yamamura H, Hiraide A, Shimazu T, Yoshioka T, Am J Emerg Med 1999 17 186 191 10.1016/S0735-6757(99)90059-1 10102325 (Pubitemid 29141011)
45. Disaster epidemiology and medical response in the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Liang NJ, Shih YT, Shih FY, Wu HM, Wang HJ, Shi SF, Liu MY, Wang BB, Ann Emerg Med 2001 38 549 555 10.1067/mem.2001.118999 11679867 (Pubitemid 33041932)
46. Creation of inpatient capacity during a major hospital relocation. Jen HC, Shew SB, Atkinson JB, Rosenthal JT, Hiatt JR, Arch Surg 2009 144 859 864 10.1001/archsurg.2009.146 19797112
47. A delay stochastic process with applications in molecular biology. Schlicht R, Winkler G, Math Biol 2008 57 613 648 10.1007/s00285-008-0178-y
48. A benefit-cost analysis of private and semi-private hospital rooms. Boardman AE, Forbes D, J Benef Cost Anal 2011 2 3
49. Inflation conversion factors for years 1774 to estimated 2021. Sahr RC, http://oregonstate.edu/cla/polisci/download-conversion-factors accessed 7 September 2011
50. Children's Hospital Los Angeles Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, private communication. Hanners R, 2011
51. Simulation and visualization of the Viterbi Decoder using a spreadsheet. Rha PS, IEEE Trans Ed 2003 46 379 386 10.1109/TE.2003.814589