Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building performance using probabilistic climate projections: A UK case study

Automation in Construction

Volumn 20, Issue 8, 2011, Pages 1096-1109

  Tian, Wei ^a   De Wilde, Pieter ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PLYMOUTH   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Building simulation; Climate change; Energy performance; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis

Indexed keywords

BUILDING PERFORMANCE; BUILDING SIMULATION; CARBON EMISSIONS; CHANGING CLIMATE; CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTION; CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS; CLIMATE PROJECTION; COOLING ENERGY; DATA SETS; ENERGY PERFORMANCE; FACILITY MANAGEMENT; HEATING ENERGY; IN-BUILDINGS; LONG-TERM FUTURE; PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION; THERMAL PERFORMANCE OF BUILDINGS; UNITED KINGDOM;

COLLEGE BUILDINGS; FORECASTING; OFFICE BUILDINGS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 80053309659     PISSN: 09265805     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.autcon.2011.04.011     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. CIBSE (the Charted Institution of Building Services Engineers, UK) Energy and Carbon Emissions Regulations: A Guide to Implementation, London 2008
2. J.M. Murphy, D.M.H. Sexton, G.J. Jenkins, P.M. Boorman, B.B.B. Booth, C.C. Brown, R.T. Clark, M. Collins, G.R. Harris, E.J. Kendon, R.A. Betts, S.J. Brown, T.P. Howard, K.A. Humphrey, M.P. McCarthy, R.E. McDonald, A. Stephens, C. Wallace, R. Warren, R. Wilby, and R.A. Wood UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections 2009 Met Office Hadley Centre Exeter
3. CIBSE TM48 Use of Climate Change Scenarios for Building Simulation: The CIBSE Future Weather Years March 2009 CIBSE London
4. CIBSE TM36 Climate Change and the Indoor Environment: Impacts and Adaptation 2005 CIBSE London
5. L. Guan Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia Building Research and Information 37 1 2009 43 54
6. P. de Wilde, and W. Tian Identification of key factors for uncertainty in the prediction of the thermal performance of an office building under climate change Building Simulation 2 3 2009 157 174
7. D. Coley, and T. Kershaw Changes in internal temperatures within the built environments as a response to a changing climate Building and Environment 45 1 2010 89 93
8. R. Zmeureanu, and G. Renaud Estimation of potential impact of climate change on the heating energy use of existing houses Energy Policy 36 1 2008 303 310 (Pubitemid 350177468)
9. W. Plokker, J. Evers, C. Struck, A. Wijsman, and J. Hensen First experiences using climate scenarios for the Netherlands in building performance simulation 11th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association, 2009, Glasgow 2009
10. M. Camilleri, R. Jaques, and N. Isaacs Impacts of climate change on building performance in New Zealand Building Research and Information 29 6 2001 440 450 (Pubitemid 34022238)
11. R. Aguiar, M. Oliveira, and H. Gonçalves Climate change impacts on the thermal performance of Portuguese buildings Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 23 4 2002 223 231
12. B. Vidrih, and S. Medved The effects of changes in the climate on the energy demands of buildings International Journal of Energy Research 32 11 2008 1016 1029
13. T. Frank Climate change impacts on building heating and cooling energy demand in Switzerland Energy and Buildings 37 11 2005 1175 1185 (Pubitemid 41329159)
14. M. Christenson, H. Manz, and D. Gyalistras Climate warming impact on degree-days and building energy demand in Switzerland Energy Conversion and Management 47 6 2006 671 686
15. 2 emissions Building and Environment 44 12 2009 2451 2462
16. D.P. Jenkins, Y. Liu, and A.D. Peacock Climatic and internal factors affecting future UK office heating and cooling energy consumptions Energy and Buildings 40 5 2008 874 881 (Pubitemid 351163008)
17. M.F. Jentsch, A.S. Bahaj, and P.A.B. James Climate change future proofing of buildings - generation and assessment of building simulation weather files Energy and Buildings 40 12 2008 2148 2168
18. D.B. Crawley Estimating the impacts of climate change and urbanization on building performance Journal of Building Performance Simulation 1 2 2008 91 115
19. B. Aebischer, G. Catenazzi, and M. Jakob Impact of climate change on thermal comfort, heating and cooling energy demand in Europe Proceedings ECEEE 2007 Summer Study "Saving Energy - Just Do It!", June 2007, France 2007
20. L.O. Degelman Which came first - building cooling loads or global warming? A cause and effect examination Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 23 4 2003 259 267
21. J.C. Helton, J.D. Johnson, C.J. Sallaberry, and C.B. Storlie Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis Reliability Engineering and System Safety 91 10-11 2006 1175 1209
22. J.S. Chou, I.T. Yang, and W.K. Chong Probabilistic simulation for developing likelihood distribution of engineering project cost Automation in Construction 18 5 2009 570 577
23. C. Struck, and J. Hensen On supporting design decisions in conceptual design addressing specification uncertainties using performance simulation Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association 2007, Beijing China 2007
24. S. de Wit Uncertainty in building simulation A.M. Malkawi, G. Augenbroe, Advanced Building Simulation 2003 Spon Press New 25 60
25. I.A. Macdonald, and P. Strachan Practical application of uncertainty analysis Energy and Buildings 33 3 2001 219 227 (Pubitemid 32029329)
26. C. Struck, P.J.C.J. de Wilde, C.J. Hopfe, and J.L.M. Hensen An investigation of the option space in conceptual building design for advanced building simulation Advanced Engineering Informatics 23 2009 386 395
27. J.K.W. Wong, H. Li, and S.W. Wang Intelligent building research: a review Automation in Construction 14 1 2005 143 159
28. P.D. Jones, C.G. Kilsby, C. Harpham, V. Glenis, and A. Burton UK Climate Projections Science Report: Projections of Future Daily Climate for the UK from the Weather Generator 2009 University of Newcastle UK
29. S. Oxizidis, A.V. Dudek, and N. Aquilina Typical weather years and the effect of urban microclimate on the energy behaviour of buildings and HVAC systems Advances in Building Energy Research 1 2007 89 103
30. L. Guan Preparation of future weather data to study the impact of climate change on buildings Building and Environment 44 4 2009 793 800 (Pubitemid 50267602)
31. M.J. Scott, L.E. Wrench, and D.L. Hadley Effects of Climate Change on Commercial Building Energy Demand, Energy Sources Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects 16 3 1994 317 332
32. L. Degelman Simulation and uncertainty: weather predictions A.M. Malkawi, G. Augenbroe, Advanced Building Simulation 2003 Spon Press New 60 86
33. J.C. Lam, C.L. Tsang, L. Yang, and D.H.W. Li Weather data analysis and design implications for different climatic zones in China Building and Environment 40 2 2005 277 296 (Pubitemid 39308118)
34. W. Tian, and P. de Wilde Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections Journal of Building Performance Simulation 4 2 2011 105 124
35. G. Levermore, and J.B. Parkinson Analyses and algorithms for new test reference years and design summer years for the UK Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 27 4 2006 311 326
36. J. CIBSE Guide Weather, Solar and Illuminance Data 2002 CIBSE London
37. NCM National Calculation Method UK. Available from: http://www.ncm.bre. co.uk/ 2009 [Accessed 22 January 2010]
38. K. Long The building trumpets its presence in the city The Architects' Journal 2007 August 16th 24 35
39. P. Thornsby Show some metal, Building Sustainable Design 2007 December http://www.bsdlive.co.uk/story.asp?sectioncode=200&storycode=3101420 [Accessed 22 January 2010].
40. LBNL (Lawrence Berkely National Laboratory) EnergyPlus Manual V4.0. October 2009, Berkeley, USA 2009
41. ASHRAE 2009 Handbook of Fundamentals 2009 ASHRAE Atlanta
42. DECC and Defra, 2009 Guidelines to Defra/DECC's GHG Conversion Factors for Company Reporting, produced by AEA for the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) UK, Version 2.0 Updated 30/09/2009.
43. T.A. Mara, and S. Tarantola Application of global sensitivity analysis of model output to building thermal simulations Building Simulation 1 4 2008 290 302
44. C.B. Storlie, L.P. Swiler, J.C. Helton, and C.J. Sallaberry Implementation and evaluation of nonparametric regression procedures for sensitivity analysis of computationally demanding models Reliability Engineering and System Safety 94 11 2009 1735 1763
45. Condor High throughput computing http://www.cs.wisc.edu/condor/ [Accessed 22 January 2010].
46. SIMLAB Version 2.2 Simulation Environment for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis, Developed by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission 2004
47. MiniTab MiniTab Statistical Software Package, V.15 2009
48. R Development Core Team R: a language and environment for statistical computing 2008 R Foundation for Statistical Computing Vienna, Austria 3-900051-07-0 Available from: URL http://www.R-project.org
49. A. Field Discovering Statistics Using SPSS third edition 2009 SAGE Los Angeles
50. ODPM (Office of the Deputy Prime Minister) Conservation of Fuel and Power, Part L2A, the Building Regulations, UK 2006