Century-scale variability in global annual runoff examined using a water balance model

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 31, Issue 12, 2011, Pages 1739-1748

  McCabe, Gregory J ^a   Wolock, David M ^a  

^a U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

Author keywords

Annual runoff; Climate variability; Global climate

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION; ANNUAL RUNOFF; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; GLOBAL CLIMATE; LAND AREAS; MONTHLY WATER BALANCE MODEL; PRECIPITATION DATA; TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIABILITY; WATER BALANCE MODELS;

CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATOLOGY; TIME SERIES;

RUNOFF;

CLIMATE VARIATION; GLOBAL CLIMATE; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; RUNOFF; SPATIAL VARIATION; TEMPERATURE PROFILE; TEMPORAL VARIATION; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WATER BUDGET;

EID: 80053309334     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2198     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Angell JK. 1998. Contraction of the 300 mbar north circumpolar vortex during 1963-1997 and its movement into the Eastern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 25887-25893.
2. Brutsaert W. 2006. Indications of increasing land surface evaporation during the second half of the 20th century. Geophysical Research Letters 33: L20403, DOI: L10.1029/2006GL027532.
3. Brutsaert W, Parlange MB. 1998. Hydrologic cycle explains the evaporation paradox. Nature 396: 30.
4. Dai A, Qian T, Trenberth KE, Milliman HD. 2009. Changes in continental freshwater discharge from 1948 to 2004. Journal of Climate 22: 2773-2792.
5. Dunne KA, Willmott CJ. 1996. Global distribution of plant-extractable water capacity of soil. International Journal of Climatology 16: 841-859.
6. Federer CA, Vorosmarty C, Fekete B. 1996. Intercomparison of methods for calculating potential evaporation in regional and global water balance models. Water Resources Research 32: 2315-2321.
7. Folland CK, Karl TR, Christy JR, Clarke RA, Gruza GV, Jouzel J, Mann ME, Oerlemans J, Salinger MJ, Wang SW. 2001a. Observed climate variability and change. In Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs D, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 881.
8. Folland CK, Rayner NA, Brown SJ, Smith TM, Shen SSP, Parker DE, Macadam I, Jones PD, Jones RN, Nicholls N, Sexton DMH. 2001b. Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 2621-2624.
9. Frauenfeld OW, Davis RE. 2003. Northern Hemisphere circumpolar vortex trends and climate change implications. Geophysical Research Letters 108(D14): 4423, DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002958.
10. Gedney N, Cox PM, Betts RA, Boucher O, Huntingford C, Stott PA. 2006. Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records. Nature 439: 835-838.
11. Gerten D, Rost S, von Bloh W, Lucht W. 2008. Causes of change in 20th century global river discharge. Geophysical Research Letters 35: L20405, DOI: 1029/2008GL035258.
12. Gleick PH. 2000. Water: the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the water resources of the U.S. The Report of the Water Sector Assessment Team of the National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security: Oakland, California; 151.
13. Hamon WR. 1961. Estimating potential evapotranspiration. Journal of the Hydraulics Division, Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers 87: 107-120.
14. Jones PD, Osborn TJ, Briffa KR. 1997. Estimating sampling errors in large-scale temperature averages. Journal of Climate 10: 2548-2568.
15. Labat D, Godderis Y, Probst JL, Guyot JL. 2004. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources 27: 631-642.
16. Lawrimore JH, Peterson TC. 2000. Pan evaporation trends in dry and humid regions of the United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology 1: 543-546.
17. Legates DR, Lins HF, McCabe GJ. 2005. Comments on "Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming" by Labat, et al. Advances in Water Resources 28: 1310-1315.
18. Legates DR, Mather JR. 1992. An evaluation of the average annual global water balance. Geographical Review 82: 253-267.
19. Legates DR, McCabe GJ. 2005. A re-evaluation of the average annual global water balance. Physical Geography 26: 467-479.
20. Lu J, Sun G, McNulty SG, Amataya DM. 2005. A comparison of six potential evapotranspiration methods for regional use in the southeastern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 3: 621-633.
21. McCabe GJ, Ayers MA. 1989. Hydrologic effects of climate change in the Delaware River basin. Water Resources Bulletin 25: 1231-1242.
22. McCabe GJ, Clark MP, Serreze MC. 2001. Trends in Northern hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity. Journal of Climate 14: 2763-2768.
23. McCabe GJ, Markstrom SL. 2007. A monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2007-1088; 6.
24. McCabe GJ, Wolock DM. 1999. Future snowpack conditions in the western United States derived from general circulation model climate simulations. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35: 1473-1484.
25. McCabe GJ, Wolock DM. 2008. Joint variability of global runoff and global sea-surface temperatures. Journal of Hydrometeorology 9: 816-824.
26. McCabe GJ, Wolock DM. 2010. Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters. Climatic Change 99: 141-153.
27. Milliman JD, Farnsworth KL, Jones PD, Xu KN, Smith LC. 2008. Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951-2000. Global and Planetary Change 62: 187-194.
28. Milly PCD, Dunne KA, Vecchia AV. 2005. Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438: 347-350, DOI: 10.1038/nature04312.
29. Mitchell TD, Jones PD. 2005. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology 25: 693-712.
30. 2 on global river runoff trends. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104: 15242-15247.
31. Rango A, Martinec J. 1995. Revisiting the degree-day method for snowmelt computations. Water Resources Bulletin 31: 657-669.
32. Roderick ML, Farquhar GD. 2002. The cause of decreased pan evaporation over the past 50 years. Science 298: 1410-1411.
33. Roderick ML, Rotstayn LD, Farquhar GD, Hobbins MT. 2007. On the attribution of changing pan evaporation. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L17403, DOI: 1029/2007GL031166.
34. Rouse WR, Douglas MSV, Hecky RE, Hershey AE, Kling GW, Lesack L, Marsh P, McDonald M, Nicholson BJ, Roulet NT, Smol JP. 1997. Effects of climate change on the freshwaters of Arctic and Subarctic North America. Hydrological Processes 11: 873-902.
35. Tarboton DG, Al-Adhami MJ, Bowles DS. 1991. A preliminary comparison of snowmelt models for erosion prediction. Proceedings of the 59th Annual Western Snow Conference, Juneau, Alaska; 79-90.
36. Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmussen RM, Parsons DB. 2003. The changing character of precipitation. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84: 1205-1217.
37. Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje PG, Bojariu R, Easterling DR, Klein Tank AMG, Parker DE, Rahimzadeh F, Renwick JA, Rusticucci MM, Soden BJ, Zhai P-M. 2007. Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds), Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, New York.
38. Vorosmarty CJ, Federer CA, Schloss AL. 1998. Potential evaporation functions compared on US watersheds: possible implications for global-scale water balance and terrestrial ecosystem modeling. Journal of Hydrology 207: 147-169.
39. Wolock DM, McCabe GJ. 1999. Effects of potential climatic change on annual runoff in the conterminous United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35: 1341-1350.