Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

Marine and Freshwater Research

Volumn 62, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 1043-1061

  Bond, Nick ^a,b   Thomson, Jim ^a   Reich, Paul ^a,c   Stein, Janet ^d  

^a MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b GRIFFITH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^c ARTHUR RYLAH INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH   (Australia)

^d AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

bioclimatic model; conservation planning; environmental filters; hydrology; prediction; validation

Indexed keywords

BIOCLIMATOLOGY; CATCHMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CONSERVATION PLANNING; DISPERSAL; FISH; FRESHWATER ENVIRONMENT; HOME RANGE; HYPOTHESIS TESTING; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION MODELING; PREDICTION; TEMPERATURE EFFECT;

AUSTRALIA;

EID: 80053103001     PISSN: 13231650     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1071/MF10286     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Araújo, M. B., Pearson, R. G., Thuiller, W., and Erhard, M. (2005). Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology 11, 1504-1513. doi:10.1111/J.1365-2486.2005. 01000.X (Pubitemid 43898772)
2. Balcombe, S. R., Sheldon, F., Capon, S. J., Bond, N. R., Marsh, N., Hadwen, W. L., and Bernays, S. J. (2011). Climate-change threats to native fish in degraded rivers and floodplains of the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. Marine andFreshwaterResearch 62, 1099-1114. doi:10.1071/MF11059
3. Barton, B. A. (1996). General biology of salmonids. In 'Principles of Salmonid Culture'. (Eds W. Pennel and B. A. Barton.) pp. 29-96. (Elsevier: Amsterdam.)
4. Bond, N. R., Lake, P. S., and Arthington, A. H. (2008). The impacts of drought on freshwater ecosystems: An Australian perspective. Hydrobiologia 600, 3-16. doi:10.1007/S10750-008-9326-Z
5. Bond, N. R., McMaster, D., Reich, P., Thomson, J., and Lake, P. S. (2010). Modelling the impacts of flow regulation on fish distributions in naturally intermittent lowland streams: An approach for predicting restoration responses. Freshwater Biology 55, 1997-2010. doi:10.1111/ J.1365-2427.2010. 02421.X
6. Booth, D. J., Bond, N., and Macreadie, P. (2011). Detecting range shifts among Australian fishes in response to climate change. Marine and Freshwater Research 62, 1027-1042. doi:10.1071/MF10270
7. Boulton, A. J., and Hancock, P. J. (2006). Rivers as groundwater- dependent ecosystems: A review of degrees of dependency, riverine processes and management implications. Australian Journal of Botany 54, 133-144. doi:10.1071/BT05074
8. Buckley, L., Urban, M., and Angilletta, M. (2010). Can mechanism inform species' distribution models? Ecology Letters 13, 1041-1054.
9. Buisson, L., and Grenouillet, G. (2010). Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on stream fish assemblages. American Fisheries Society Symposium 73, 327-346.
10. Bureau of Meteorology (2002). 'Climatic Atlas of Australia.' (Bureau of Meteorology, National Climate Centre: Canberra.)
11. Burgman, M. A. (2005). 'Risks and Decisions for Conservation and Environmental Management.' (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK.)
12. Chu, C., Mandrak, N., and Minns, C. (2005). Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions of several common and rare freshwater fishes in Canada. Diversity & Distributions 11, 299-310. doi:10.1111/J.1366-9516.2005. 00153.X (Pubitemid 41009360)
13. CSIRO (2008). Water availability in the Murray-Darling Basin. A report to the Australian Government from the CSIRO Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields Project. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Canberra.
14. Davis, A. J., Jenkinson, L. S., Lawton, J. H., Shorrocks, B., and Wood, S. (1998). Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391, 783-786. doi:10.1038/35842 (Pubitemid 28099674)
15. Dormann, C. F. (2007). Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions.Basic and Applied Ecology 8, 387-397. doi:10.1016/ J.BAAE.2006.11.001 (Pubitemid 47188062)
16. Efron, B., and Tibshirani, R. J. (1997). Improvements on cross-validation: The 632+ bootstrap method. Journal of the American Statistical Association 92, 548-560. doi:10.2307/2965703
17. Elith, J., and Leathwick, J. (2009). Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and time. Annual Review of Ecology 40, 677-697.
18. Elith, J., Leathwick, J. R., and Hastie, T. (2008).A working guide to boosted regression trees. Journal of Animal Ecology 77, 802-813. doi:10.1111/ J.1365-2656.2008.01390.X (Pubitemid 351799674)
19. Elith, J., Kearney, M., and Phillips, S. (2010). The art of modelling range-shifting species. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 1, 330-342. doi:10.1111/J.2041-210X.2010.00036.X
20. Friedman, J. H. (2001). Greedy function approximation: A gradient boosting machine. Annals of Statistics 29, 1189-1232. doi:10.1214/AOS/ 1013203451 (Pubitemid 33405972)
21. Gibson, C., Meyer, J., Poff, N., Hay, L., and Georgakakos, A. (2005). Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems. River Research and Applications 21, 849-864. doi:10.1002/RRA.855 (Pubitemid 41522801)
22. Growns, I., and West, G. (2008). Classification of aquatic bioregions through the use of distributional modelling of freshwater fish. Ecological Modelling 217, 79-86. doi:10.1016/J.ECOLMODEL.2008.06.009
23. Guisan, A., and Thuiller, W. (2005). Predicting species distribution: Offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters 8, 993-1009. doi:10.1111/J.1461-0248.2005.00792.X (Pubitemid 41247275)
24. Heikkinen, R., Luoto, M., and Araú jo, M. (2006). Methods and uncertainties in bioclimatic envelope modelling under climate change. Progress in Physical Geography 30, 751-777. doi:10.1177/0309133306071957 (Pubitemid 46090481)
25. IPCC (2001). 'Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis.' Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Eds J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell and C. A. Johnson.) (Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK and New York, USA.)
26. Jones, R., and Durack, P. (2005). 'Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Victoria's Runoff Using a Hydrological Sensitivity Model.' (CSIRO Atmospheric Research: Melbourne.)
27. Kearney, M., and Porter, W. (2009). Mechanistic niche modelling: Combining physiological and spatial data to predict species' ranges. Ecology Letters 12, 334-350. doi:10.1111/J.1461-0248.2008.01277.X
28. Kennard, M. J., Olden, J. D., Arthington, A. H., Pusey, B. J., and Poff, N. L. (2007). Multiscale effects of flow regime and habitat and their interaction on fish assemblage structure in eastern Australia. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 64, 1346-1359. doi:10.1139/F07-108 (Pubitemid 350124610)
29. Kennard, M. J., Mackay, S. J., Pusey, B. J., Olden, J. D., and Marsh, N. (2010a). Quantifying uncertainty in estimation of hydrologic metrics for ecohydrological studies. River Research and Applications 26, 137-156.
30. Kennard, M. J., Pusey, B. J., Olden, J. D., Mackay, S. J., Stein, J. L., and Marsh, N. (2010b). Classification of natural flow regimes in Australia to support environmental flow management. Freshwater Biology 55, 171-193. doi:10.1111/J.1365-2427.2009.02307.X
31. Koehn, J. D., and O'Connor, W. G. (1990). 'Biological Information for Management of Native Freshwater Fish in Victoria.' (Department of Conservation and Environment: Melbourne.)
32. Leathwick, J. R., Rowe, D., Richardson, J., Elith, J., and Hastie, T. (2005). Using multivariate adaptive regression splines to predict the distributions of New Zealand's freshwater diadromous fish. Freshwater Biology 50, 2034-2052. doi:10.1111/J.1365-2427.2005. 01448.X
33. Lyons, J., Stewart, J. S., and Mitro, M. (2010). Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA. Journal of Fish Biology 77, 1867-1898. doi:10.1111/J.1095-8649.2010. 02763.X
34. Morrongiello, J. R., Beatty, S. J., Bennett, J. C., Crook, D. C., Ikedife, D. N. E. N., Kennard, M. J., Kerezsy, A., Lintermans, M., McNeil, D. G., PuseyB. J., and Rayner, J. (2011). Climate change and its implications for Australia's freshwater fish. Marine and Freshwater Research 62, 1082-1098. doi:10.1071/MF10308
35. Merrick, J. R., and Schmida, G. E. (1984). 'Australian Freshwater Fishes: Biology and Management.' (Griffin Press: Netley, SA.)
36. Olden, J. D., Jackson, D. A., and Peres-Neto, P. R. (2002). Predictive models of fish species distributions: A note on proper validation and chance predictions. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 131, 329-336. doi:10.1577/1548-8659(2002)131,0329:PMOFSD. 2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 34271335)
37. Olden, J. D., Lawler, J. J., and Poff, N. L. (2008). Machine learning methods without tears: A primer for ecologists. The Quarterly Review of Biology 83, 171-193. doi:10.1086/587826
38. Palmer, M. A., Reidy, C., Nilsson, C., Florke, M., Alcamo, J., Lake, P. S., and Bond, N. R. (2007). Climate change and the world's river basins: Anticipating response options. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 6, 81-89. doi:10.1890/060148
39. Pearce, J., and Ferrier, S. (2000). Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecological Modelling 133, 225-245. doi:10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00322-7
40. Poff, N. L., and Allan, D. J. (1995). Functional organization of stream fish assemblages in relation to hydrological variability. Ecology 76, 606-627. doi:10.2307/1941217
41. Poff, N. L., Tokar, S., and Johnson, P. (1996). Stream hydrological and ecological responses to climate change assessed with an artificial neural network. Limnology and Oceanography 41, 857-863. doi:10.4319/LO. 1996.41.5.0857 (Pubitemid 26381063)
42. Pollino, C. A., Feehan, P., Grace, M. R., and Harr, B. T. (2004). Fish communities and habitat changes in the highly modified Goulburn Catchment, Victoria, Australia. Marine and Freshwater Research 55, 769-780. doi:10.1071/MF03180 (Pubitemid 40112712)
43. Pratchett, M. S., Bay, L. K., Gehrke, P. C., Koehn, J. D., Osborne, K., Pressey, R. L., Sweatman, H. P. A., and Wachenfeld, D. (2011). Contribution of climate change to degradation and loss of critical fish habitats in Australian marine and freshwater environments. Marine and Freshwater Research 62, 1062-1081. doi:10.1071/MF10303
44. Quist, M. C., Hubert, W. A., and Rahel, F. J. (2005). Fish assemblage structure following impoundment of a Great Plains river. Western North American Naturalist 65, 53-63. (Pubitemid 40564481)
45. R Development Core Team (2009). 'R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing.' (R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna.) Available at http://www.r-project.org/ [Accessed 3 August 2011].
46. Ridgeway, G. (2007). 'Generalized Boosted Models: A Guide to the gbm Package.' Available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/gbm/ gbm.pdf [accessed 5 July 2011].
47. Sanborn, S., and Bledsoe, B. (2006). Predicting streamflow regime metrics for ungauged streams in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon. Journal of Hydrology 325, 241-261. doi:10.1016/J.JHYDROL.2005. 10.018 (Pubitemid 43849760)
48. Sinclair, S., White, M., and Newell, G. (2010). How useful are species distribution models for managing biodiversity under future climates? Ecology and Society 15, Article 8.
49. Sinclair Knight Merz (2005). Development and application of a flow stresses ranking procedure. A report produced by Sinclair Knight Merz for the Department of Sustainability and Environment, Victoria, Melbourne.
50. Smakhtin, V. U. (2001). Low flow hydrology: A review. Journal of Hydrology 240, 147-186. doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(00)00340-1 (Pubitemid 32108798)
51. Stein, J. L., Stein, J. A., and Nix, H. A. (2002). Spatial analysis of anthropogenic river disturbance at regional and continental scales: Identifying the wild rivers of Australia. Landscape and Urban Planning 60, 1-25. (Pubitemid 34689103)
52. Stein, J. L. (2006). 'A Continental Landscape Framework for Systematic Conservation Planning for Australian Rivers and Streams.' (PhD Thesis, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University: Canberra.) Available at http://hdl.handle.net/1885/49406 [accessed 30 August 2011].
53. Thuiller, W. (2007). Biodiversity: Climate change and the ecologist. Nature 448, 550-552. doi:10.1038/448550A (Pubitemid 47206927)
54. Trueman, W. T. (2007). Some recollections of native fish in the Murray-Darling system with special reference to the trout cod. Native Fish Australia, Melbourne.
55. Walsh, C., Stewardson, M., Stein, J., and Wealands, S. (2007). 'Sustainable Rivers Audit Filters Project Stage 2, Report to Murray Darling Basin Commission.' (School of Enterprise, The University of Melbourne: Melbourne).
56. Williams, J. W., and Jackson, S. T. (2007). Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5, 475-482. doi:10.1890/070037 (Pubitemid 350071683)