A deterministic rapid intensification aid

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 26, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 579-585

  Sampson, Charles R ^a   Kaplan, John ^b   Knaff, John A ^c   Demaria, Mark ^c   Sisko, Chris A ^d  

^a NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^b ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC AND METEOROLOGICAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^c NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

^d NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Forecast verification; Forecasting techniques; Short range prediction; Statistical forecasting

Indexed keywords

ARITHMETIC MEAN; FORECAST ERRORS; FORECAST TIME; FORECAST VERIFICATION; FORECASTING TECHNIQUES; INTENSITY FORECASTS; NEGATIVE BIAS; PROBABILITY THRESHOLD; RAPID INTENSIFICATION; REAL TIME; SHORT-RANGE PREDICTION; STATISTICAL FORECASTING;

ERRORS;

FORECASTING;

HURRICANE; PROBABILITY; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 80052407486     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-10-05010.1     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. Bender, M. A., I. Ginis, R. Tuleya, B. Thomas, and T. Marchok, 2007: The operational GFDL coupled hurricane-ocean prediction system and a summary of its performance. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 3965-3989.
2. Bernardet, L., and Coeditors, cited 2010: Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model scientific documentation. [Available online at http://www.dtcenter.org/HurrWRF/users/docs/scientific_documents/HWRF_final_2-2_cm.pdf.]
3. DeMaria, M., 2009: A simplified dynamical system for tropical cyclone intensity prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 68-82.
4. DeMaria, M., M. Mainelli, L. K. Shay, J. A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2005: Further improvement to the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). Wea. Forecasting, 20, 531-543.
5. DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, and J. Kaplan, 2006: On the decay of tropical cyclone winds crossing narrow landmasses. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45, 491-499.
6. DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, and C. R. Sampson, 2007: Evaluation of long-term trends in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 97, 19-28.
7. Emanuel, K., C. Desautels, C. Holloway, and R. Korty, 2004: Environmental control of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 843-858.
8. Hogan, T. F., and T. E. Rosmond, 1991: The description of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System's spectral forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1786-1815.
9. Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 1995: A simple empirical model for predicting the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall. J. Appl. Meteor., 34, 2499-2512.
10. Kaplan, J., and M. DeMaria, 2001: A note on the decay of tropical cyclone winds after landfall in the New England area. J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 280-286.
11. Kaplan, J., M. DeMaria, and J. A. Knaff, 2010: A revised tropical cyclone rapid intensification index for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 220-241.
12. Knaff, J. A., M. DeMaria, C. R. Sampson, and J. M. Gross, 2003: Statistical, 5-day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts derived from climatology and persistence. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 80-92.
13. Knaff, J. A., C. Guard, J. Kossin, T. Marchok, B. Sampson, T. Smith, and N. Surgi, 2006: Operational guidance and skill in forecasting structure change. Proc. Sixth Int. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, San Jose, Costa Rica. WMO, 1.5. [Available online at http://severe.worldweather.org/iwtc/.]
14. Rennick, M. A., 1999: Performance of the navy's tropical cyclone prediction model in the western North Pacific basin during 1996. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 3-14.
15. Reynolds, C. A., J. D. Doyle, R. M. Hodur, and H. Jin, 2010: Naval Research Laboratory multiscale targeting guidance for T-PARC and TCS-08. Wea. Forecasting, 25, 526-544.
16. Sampson, C. R., and A. J. Schrader, 2000: The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (version 3.2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1231-1240.
17. Sampson, C. R., J. S. Goerss, and H. C. Weber, 2006: Operational performance of a new barotropic model (WBAR) in the western North Pacific basin. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 656-662.
18. Sampson, C. R., J. L. Franklin, J. A. Knaff, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Experiments with a simple tropical cyclone intensity consensus. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 304-312.