A Statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks in the western North Pacific with ENSO-dependent cyclogenesis

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Volumn 50, Issue 8, 2011, Pages 1725-1739

  Yonekura, Emmi ^a   Hall, Timothy M ^b  

^a Howard Hughes Medical Institute   (United States)

^b NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES   (United States)

Author keywords

Cyclogenesis cyclolysis; ENSO; North Pacific Ocean; Statistical techniques; Tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

CYCLOGENESIS; ENSO; NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN; STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION; HURRICANES; NICKEL COMPOUNDS; OCEANOGRAPHY; STOCHASTIC MODELS; STORMS; TROPICS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

CYCLOGENESIS; DETECTION METHOD; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; LA NINA; NUMERICAL MODEL; STOCHASTICITY; STORM TRACK; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

JAPAN; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH); PHILIPPINES;

EID: 80052368822     PISSN: 15588424     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2011JAMC2617.1     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Barnston, A. G., M. Chelliah, and S. B. Goldenberg, 1997: Documentation of a highly ENSO-related SST region in the equatorial Pacific. Atmos.-Ocean, 35, 367-383.
2. Camargo, S. J., and A. H. Sobel, 2005: Western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. J. Climate, 18, 2996- 3006.
3. Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel, and A. H. Sobel, 2007a: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819-4834.
4. Camargo, S. J., A. W. Robertson, S. J. Gaffney, P. Smyth, and M. Ghil, 2007b: Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks. Part II: Large-scale circulation and ENSO. J. Climate, 20, 3654-3676.
5. Chan, J. C. L., 1985: Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 599-606.
6. Chan, J. C. L., 2000: Tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific associated with El Niño and La Niña events. J. Climate, 13, 2960-2972.
7. Chan, J. C. L., 2005: Interannual and interdecadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 89, 143-152.
8. Chan, J. C. L., 2006: Comment on "Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment." Science, 311, 1713.
9. Chan, J. C. L., and J. Shi, 2000: Frequency of typhoon landfall over Guangdong Province of China during the period 1470-1931. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 183-190.
10. Chan, J. C. L., and K. S. Liu, 2004: Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective. J. Climate, 17, 4590-4602.
11. Chia, H.-H., and C. F. Ropelewski, 2002: The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones and the northwest Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2934-2944.
12. Chu, P., and J. Wang, 1998: Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii. J. Appl. Meteor., 39, 951-960.
13. Darling, R., 1991: Estimating probabilities of hurricane wind speeds using a large-scale empirical model. J. Climate, 4, 1035-1046.
14. Dong, K., 1988: El Niño and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region and the northwest Pacific. Aust. Meteor. Mag., 36, 219-255.
15. Drayton, M., 2000: A stochastic "basin-wide" model of Atlantic hurricanes. Proc. 24th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Ft. Lauderdale, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 17A.3.
16. Elsner, J. B., and K. B. Liu, 2003: Examining the ENSO-typhoon hypothesis. Climate Res., 25, 43-54.
17. Elsner, J. B., R. J. Murnane, and T. H. Jagger, 2006: Forecasting U.S. hurricanes 6 months in advance. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10704, doi:10.1029/2006GL025693.
18. Emanuel, K., S. Ravela, E. Vivant, and C. Risi, 2006: A statistical deterministic approach of hurricane risk assessment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 299-314.
19. Fudeyasu, H., S. Iizuka, and T. Matsuura, 2006: Impact of ENSO on landfall characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during the summer monsoon season. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21815, doi:10.1029/2006GL027449.
20. Hall, T. M., and S. Jewson, 2007: Statistical modeling of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tellus, 59A, 486-498.
21. Harr, P. A., and R. L. Elsberry, 1991: Tropical cyclone track characteristics as a function of large-scale circulation anomalies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1448-1468.
22. James, M. K., and L. B. Mason, 2005: Synthetic tropical cyclone database. J. Waterw. Port Ocean Eng., 131 (4), 181-192.
23. Knapp, K. R., M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, and C. J. Neumann, 2010: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 363-376.
24. Rumpf, J., H. Weindl, P. Höppe, E. Rauch, and V. Schmidt, 2007: Stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone tracks. Math. Methods Oper. Res., 66, 475-490.
25. Sabbatelli, T. A., and M. E. Mann, 2007: The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic tropical cyclone occurrence rates. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi:10.1029/2007JD008385.
26. Saunders, M. A., R. E. Chandler, C. J. Merchant, and F. P. Roberts, 2000: Atlantic hurricanes and NW Pacific typhoons: ENSO spatial impacts on occurrence and landfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1147-1150.
27. Vickery, P. J., P. F. Skerlj, and L. A. Twisdale, 2000: Simulation of hurricane risk in the U.S. using an empirical track model. J. Struct. Eng., 126, 1222-1237.
28. Wang, B., and J. C. L. Chan, 2002: How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 1643-1658.
29. Wu, M. C., W. L. Chang, and W. M. Leung, 2004: Impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on tropical cyclone landfalling activity in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 17, 1419-1428.