Extreme value analysis of wildfires in Canadian boreal forest ecosystems

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Volumn 41, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 1836-1851

  Jiang, Yueyang ^a   Zhuang, Qianlai ^a  

^a PURDUE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BURNED AREAS; CANADIAN BOREAL FOREST; CANADIAN FORESTS; CLIMATE SYSTEM; CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION; DATA SETS; ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUENCES; EXTREME EVENTS; EXTREME STATISTICS; EXTREME VALUE; EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS; EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS; FIRE BEHAVIOR; FIRE EVENT; FIRE RISKS; FIRE SIZE; GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE; GENERALIZED PARETO DISTRIBUTION; GEV DISTRIBUTIONS; HISTORICAL FIRE DATA; IGNITION SOURCE; NONSTATIONARY; POISSON POINT PROCESS; RETURN LEVEL; STATISTICAL MODELS; STATISTICS OF EXTREME VALUES;

CLASSIFICATION (OF INFORMATION); DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS; ECOSYSTEMS; FORESTRY; POISSON DISTRIBUTION;

FIRES;

ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCE; BOREAL FOREST; DATA SET; ECOZONE; ENVIRONMENTAL DISTURBANCE; EXTREME EVENT; FIRE BEHAVIOR; FIRE HISTORY; FOREST ECOSYSTEM; FOREST MANAGEMENT; HISTORICAL RECORD; LIGHTNING; POISSON RATIO; PROBABILITY; RISK FACTOR; WILDFIRE;

CANADA; CLASSIFICATION; ECOSYSTEMS; FOREST FIRES; FORESTRY; POISSON RATIO;

CANADA;

EID: 80052197185     PISSN: 00455067     EISSN: 12086037     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/x11-102     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. ACIA. 2004. Impacts of a warming arctic: arctic climate impact assessment. Cambridge University Press, New York. Available at http://www.acia.uaf.edu.
2. Alvarado, E., Sandberg, D.V., and Pickford, S.G. 1998. Modeling large forest fires as extreme events. Northwest Sci. 72(Special Issue): 66-75.
3. Bali, T.G., and Weinbaum, D. 2007. A conditional extreme value volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns. J. Econ. Dyn. Control, 31(2): 361-397. doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2005.10.002.
4. Behrens, C.N., Lopes, H.F., and Gamerman, D. 2004. Bayesian analysis of extreme events with threshold estimation. Stat. Model. 4(3): 227-244. doi:10.1191/1471082X04st075oa
5. Beverly, J.L., and Martell, D.L. 2005. Characterizing extreme fire and weather events in the Boreal Shield ecozone of Ontario. Agric. For. Meteorol. 133(1/4): 5-16. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2005.07.015
6. Blanchet, J., Marty, C., and Lehning, M. 2009. Extreme value statistics of snowfall in the Swiss Alpine region. Water Resour. Res. 45(5): W05424. doi:10.1029/2009WR007916
7. Brabson, B.B., and Palutikof, J.P. 2000. Tests of the generalized Pareto distribution for predicting extreme wind speeds. J. Appl. Meteorol. 39(9): 1627-1640. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(2000) 039<1627:TOTGPD>2.0.CO;2
8. Burton, P.J., Parisien, M., Hicke, J.A., Hall, R.J., and Freeburn, J.T. 2008. Large fires as agents of ecological diversity in the North American boreal forest. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17(6): 754-767. doi:10.1071/WF07149.
9. Canadian Forest Service. 2010. National fire database - agencyfire data. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alta. Available at http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/en_CA/nfdb/poly.
10. Coles, S.G. 2001. An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer, New York.
11. Coles, S.G., and Dixon, M.J. 1999. Likelihood-based inference for extreme value models. Extremes, 2(1): 5-23. doi:10.1023/A:1009905222644.
12. Cumming, S.G. 2001. A parametric model of the fire-size distribution. Can. J. For. Res. 31(8): 1297-1303. doi:10.1139/x01-032.
13. Davison, A.C., and Smith, R.L. 1990. Models for exceedances over high threshold. J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 52(3): 393-442.
14. Dey, D.C., and Guyette, R.P. 2000. Anthropogenic fire history and red oak forests in south-central Ontario. For. Chron. 76(2): 339-347.
15. Engle, R.F. 2001. GARCH 101: the use of ARCH/GARCH models in applied econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 15(4): 157-168. doi:10.1257/jep.15.4.157.
16. FAO. 2002. Guidelines on fire management in temperate and boreal forests. Forest Protection Working Papers, Working Paper FP/1/E. Forest Resources Development Service, Forest Resources Division. FAO, Rome.
17. Ferro, C.A.T., and Segers, J. 2003. Inference for clusters of extreme values. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. A Stat. Soc. 65: 545-556.
18. Flannigan, M.D., Bergeron, Y., Engelmark, O., and Wotton, B.M. 1998. Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming. J. Veg. Sci. 9(4): 469-476. doi:10.2307/3237261.
19. Flannigan, M.D., Logan, K.A., Amiro, B.D., Skinner, W.R., and Stocks, B.J. 2005. Future area burned in Canada. Clim. Change, 72(1/2): 1-16. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-5935-y.
20. Fosberg, M.A., Stocks, B.J., and Lynham, T.J. 1996. Risk analysis in strategic planning: fire and climate change in the boreal forest. In Fire in ecosystems of boreal Eurasia. Edited by J.G. Goldammer and V.V. Furyaev. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands. pp. 495-505.
21. Gençay, R., Selçuk, F., and Ulugülyagci, A. 2001. EVIM: a software package for extreme value analysis in MATLAB. Stud. Nonlinear Dyn. Econometr. 5(3): 213-239. doi:10.1162/10811820160080103.
22. Gilleland, E., Katz, R., and Young, G. 2009. ExtRemes: extreme value toolkit. R package, version 1.60. Available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/extRemes/index.html.
23. Gillett, N.P., Weaver, A.J., Zwiers, F.W., and Flannigan, M.D. 2004. Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31(18): L18211. doi:10.1029/2004GL020876.
24. Guyette, R.P., Muzika, R.M., and Dey, D.C. 2002. Dynamics of an anthropogenic fire regime. Ecosystems (N.Y.), 5: 472-486.
25. Jiang, Y., Zhuang, Q., Flannigan, M.D., and Little, J.M. 2009. Characterization of wildfire regimes in Canadian boreal terrestrial ecosystems. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18(8): 992-1002. doi:10.1071/WF08096.
26. Kasischke, E.S., and Turetsky, M.R. 2006. Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region - spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33(9): L09703. doi:10.1029/2006GL025677.
27. Katz, R.W., Brush, G.S., and Parlange, M.B. 2005. Statistics of extremes: modeling ecological disturbances. Ecology, 86(5): 1124-1134. doi:10.1890/04-0606.
28. Koenker, R. 2005. Quantile regression. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K.
29. Krawchuk, M.A., and Cumming, S.G. 2009. Disturbance history affects lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest: observations and simulations. For. Ecol. Manage. 257(7): 1613-1622. doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.01.019.
30. Krawchuk, M.A., Cumming, S.G., Flannigan, M.D., and Wein, R.W. 2006. Biotic and abiotic regulation of lightning fire initiation in the mixedwood boreal forest. Ecology, 87(2): 458-468. doi:10.1890/05-1021. PMID:16637370
31. Kushla, J.D., and Ripple, W.J. 1997. The role of terrain in a fire mosaic of a temperate coniferous forest. For. Ecol. Manage. 95(2): 97-107. doi:10.1016/S0378-1127(97)82929-5
32. Leadbetter, M.R., Lindgren, G., and Rootzén, H. 1983. Extremes and related properties of random sequences and processes. Springer- Verlag, New York.
33. Malamud, B.D., Millington, J.D.A., and Perry, G.L.W. 2005. Characterizing wildfire regimes in the United States. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 102(13): 4694-4699. PMID:15781868. doi:10.1073/pnas.0500880102.
34. Moritz, M.A. 1997. Analyzing extreme disturbance events: fire in Los Padres National Forest. Ecol. Appl. 7(4): 1252-1262. doi:10.1890/1051-0761(1997)007[1252:AEDEFI]2.0.CO;2
35. Nash, C.H., and Johnson, E.A. 1996. Synoptic climatology of lightning-caused forest fires in subalpine and boreal forests. Can. J. For. Res. 26(10): 1859-1874. doi:10.1139/x26-211.
36. Naveau, P., Nogaj, M., Ammann, C., Yiou, P., Cooley, D., and Jomelli, V. 2005. Statistical methods for the analysis of climate extremes. C. R. Geosci. 337(10/11): 1013-1022. doi:10.1016/j.crte.2005.04.015.
37. Pauli, F., and Coles, S.G. 2001. Penalized likelihood inference in extreme value analyses. J. Appl. Stat. 28(5): 547-560. doi:10.1080/02664760120047889.
38. Podur, J., Martell, D.L., and Knight, K. 2002. Statistical quality control analysis of forest fire activity in Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 32(2): 195-205. doi:10.1139/x01-183.
39. R Development Core Team. 2009. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0. Available at http://www.rproject.org.
40. Reed, W.J., and McKelvey, K.S. 2002. Power-law behaviour and parametric models for the size-distribution of forest fires. Ecol. Model. 150(3): 239-254. doi:10.1016/S0304-3800(01)00483-5.
41. Rigby, R.A., and Stasinopoulos, D.M. 2005. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape. Appl. Stat. 54: 507-554.
42. Schoenberg, F.P., Peng, R., Huang, Z., and Rundel, P. 2003. Detection of non-linearities in the dependence of burn area on fuel age and climate variables. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 12(1): 1-6. doi:10.1071/WF02053.
43. Smith, R.L. 1989. Extreme value analysis of environmental time series: an application to trend detection in ground-level ozone. Stat. Sci. 4(4): 367-377. doi:10.1214/ss/1177012400.
44. Stocks, B.J. 1991. The extent and impact of forest fires in northern circumpolar countries. In Global biomass burning: atmospheric, climatic, and biospheric implications. Edited by J.S. Levine. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass. pp. 197-202.
45. Stocks, B.J., Fosberg, M.A., Lynham, T.J., Mearns, L., Wotton, B.M., Yang, Q., Jin, J.Z., Lawrence, K., Hartley, G.R., Mason, J.A., and McKenny, D.W. 1998. Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian boreal forests. Clim. Change, 38(1): 1-13. doi:10.1023/A:1005306001055.
46. Stocks, B.J., Wotton, B.M., Flannigan, M.D., Fosberg, M.A., Cahoon, D.R., and Goldammer, J.G. 2001. Boreal forest fire regimes and climate change. In Remote sensing and climate modeling: synergies and limitations. Edited by M. Beniston and M.M. Verstraete. Springer, New York. pp. 233-246.
47. Stocks, B.J., Mason, J.A., Todd, J.B., Bosch, E.M., Wotton, B.M., Amiro, B.D., Flannigan, M.D., Hirsch, K.G., Logan, K.A., Martell, D.L., and Skinner, W.R. 2002. Large forest fires in Canada, 1959-1997. J. Geophys. Res. 107(8149). doi:10.1029/2001JD000484.
48. Tancredi, A., Anderson, C., and O'Hagan, A. 2006. Accounting for threshold uncertainty in extreme value estimation. Extremes, 9(2): 87-106. doi:10.1007/s10687-006-0009-8.
49. Van Wagner, C.E. 1987. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. For. Tech. Rep. 35. Canadian Forestry Service, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Ottawa, Ont.
50. Ward, P.C., and Tithecott, A.G. 1993. Impact of fire management on the boreal landscape of Ontario. Publ. 305. Ministry of Natural Resources, Aviation, Flood and Fire Management Branch, Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.
51. Woolford, D.G., Cao, J., Dean, C.B., and Martell, D.L. 2010. Characterizing temporal changes in forest fire ignitions: looking for climate change signals in a region of the Canadian boreal forest. Environmetrics, 21(7/8): 789-800. doi:10.1002/env.1067.
52. Wotton, B.M., Martell, D.L., and Logan, K.A. 2003. Climate change and people-caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Clim. Change, 60(3): 275-295. doi:10.1023/A:1026075919710.
53. Xiao, J., and Zhuang, Q. 2007. Drought effects on large fire activity in Canadian and Alaskan forests. Environ. Res. Lett. 2(4): 044003. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/4/044003.
54. Zhao, X., Scarrott, C., Oxley, L., and Reale, M. 2011. GARCH dependence in extreme value model with Bayesian inference. Math. Comput. Simul. 81(7): 1430-1440. doi:10.1016/j.matcom. 2010.08.002.
55. Zhuang, Q., Melillo, J.M., Sarofim, M.C., Kicklighter, D.W., McGuire, A.D., Felzer, B.S., Sokolov, A., Prinn, R.G., Steudler, P.A., and Hu, S. 2006. CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33(17): L17403. doi:10.1029/2006GL026972.