Time series methods for obtaining excess mortality attributable to influenza epidemics

Statistical Methods in Medical Research

Volumn 20, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 331-345

  Nunes, Baltazar ^a   Natário, Isabel ^b   Carvalho, M Lucília ^c  

^a NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF HEALTH DR RICARDO JORGE   (Portugal)

^b UNIVERSIDADE NOVA DE LISBOA   (Portugal)

^c Center of Statistics Applications of Lisbon University CEAUL   (Portugal)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AFRICA SOUTH OF THE SAHARA; ARTICLE; EPIDEMIC; HUMAN; INFLUENZA; MORTALITY; NONHUMAN; STATISTICAL MODEL; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS;

DATA INTERPRETATION, STATISTICAL; EPIDEMICS; HUMANS; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PNEUMONIA; PORTUGAL; SOFTWARE;

EID: 80051913957     PISSN: 09622802     EISSN: 14770334     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0962280209340201     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Cox NJ, Subbarao K. Global epidemiology of influenza: past and present. Annual Reviews of Medicine 2000; 51: 407-21. (Pubitemid 30216046)
2. Circular Informativa N°35/DSCS/DPCD. Vacinação contra a gripe sazonal em 2007/2006. Available at: http://www.dgs.pt (accessed 3 June 2008).
3. Barker WH, Borisute H, Cox C. A Study of the impact of influenza on the functional status of frail older people. Archives of Internal Medicine 1998; 158: 645-50. (Pubitemid 28144823)
4. Clifford RE, Smith JWG, Tillet HE, Wherry PJ. Excess mortality associated with influenza in England and Wales. International Journal of Epidemiology 1977; 6(2): 115-28. (Pubitemid 8156565)
5. Alling DW, Blackwelder WC, Stuart-Harris CH. A study of excess mortality during influenza epidemics in the United States, 1968-1976. American Journal of Epidemiology 1981; 113(1): 30-43. (Pubitemid 11154313)
6. Tillet HE, Smith JWG, Gooch CD. Excess deaths attributable to influenza in England and Wales: age at death and certified cause. International Journal of Epidemiology 1983; 12(3): 344-52. (Pubitemid 13001919)
7. Sprenger MJ, Mulder PG, Meyer WE, Van Strik R, Masurel N. Impact of influenza on mortality in relation to age and underlying disease, 1967-1989. International Journal of Epidemiology 1993; 22(2): 334-40.
8. Thompson WW, Shay DK, Weintraub E et al. Mortality associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association 2003; 289(2): 179-86. (Pubitemid 36068705)
9. Brinkhof MWG, Spoerri A, Birrer A, Hagman R, Koch D, Zwahlen M. Influenza-attributable mortality among the elderly in Switzerland. Swiss Medical Weekly 2006; 136(2): 302-09.
10. Paget J, Marquet R, Meijer A, van der Velden K. Influenza activity in Europe during eight seasons (1999 to 2007): an evaluation of the indicators used to measure activity and an assessment of the timing, length and course of peak activity (spread) across Europe. BMC Infectious Diseases 2007; 7: 141.
11. Lui K-J, Kendal AP. Impact of influenza epidemics on mortality in the united states from October 1972 to May 1985. American Journal of Public Health 1987; 77(6): 712-16. (Pubitemid 17084513)
12. Simonsen L, Clarke MJ, Williamson D, Stroup DF, Arden NH, Schonberger LB. The impact of influenza vaccination on seasonal mortality in the US elderly population. American Journal of Public Health 1997; 87(12): 1994-50.
13. Simonsen L, Reichert TA, Viboud C, Blackwelder WC, Taylor RJ, Miller MA. The impact of influenza epidemics on mortality: introducing a severity index. Archives of Internal Medicine 2005; 165: 265-72. (Pubitemid 40216277)
14. Zucs WHP, Buchholz U, Uphoff H. Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985-2001. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology 2005; 2(6): 1-9.
15. Rizzo C, Viboud C, Montomoli E, Simonsen L, Miller MA. Influenza-related mortality in the Italian elderly: no decline associated with the increasing vaccination coverage. Vaccine 2006; 24: 6468-75. (Pubitemid 44511862)
16. Choi K, Thacker SB. An evaluation of influenza mortality surveillance 1962-1979. American Journal of Epidemiology 1981; 113(3): 215-16.
17. Antunes JL, Waldman EA, Borrell C, Paiva TM. Effectiveness of influenza vaccination and its impact on health inequalities. International Journal of Epidemiology 2006; 36(6): 1319-26
18. Doshi P. Are US flu death figures more PR than science? British Medical Journal 2005; 331: 1412.
19. Simonsen L, Taylor R, Viboud C, Dushoff J, Miller MA. US flu mortality estimates are based on solid science. British Medical Journal 2006; 332: 177-78. (Pubitemid 43139417)
20. Box G, Jenkins G. Time series analysis: forecasting and control, 1st edn. Holden-Day, San Francisco; 1970
21. Gripe Pandémica e Sazonal: Programa de Intervençao do INSA. Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, 2006.
22. Nogueira P, Paixão E. Models for mortality associated with heatwaves: update of the Portuguese heat health warning system. International Journal of Climatology 2007; 28(4): 542-62.
23. Hyndman RJ, Khandakar Y. Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R. Journal of Statistical Software July 2008; 27: 3.
24. Nunes B, Natario I, Carvalho L (2009). Flubase: baseline of mortality free of influenza epidemics. R package version 1.0.
25. Pelat C, Boëlle P-Y, Cowling BJ, Carrat F, Flahault A, Ansart S, Valleron A-J. Online detection and quantification of epidemics. BMC Medical Informatics Decision Making 2007; 7: 29.
26. Serfling RE. Methods for current statistical analysis of excess mortality pneumonia-influenza deaths. Public Heath Reports 1963; 78(6): 494-506.