Modeling the distribution of white spruce (Picea glauca) for Alaska with high accuracy: An open access role-model for predicting tree species in last remaining wilderness areas

Polar Biology

Volumn 32, Issue 12, 2009, Pages 1717-1729

  Ohse, Bettina ^a,b   Huettmann, Falk ^b   Ickert Bond, Stefanie M ^c   Juday, Glenn P ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF GREIFSWALD   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA MUSEUM   (United States)

Author keywords

Alaska; Open access (OA); Predictive modeling; Species distribution models (SDM); Tree species; White spruce Picea glauca

Indexed keywords

EID: 80051727007     PISSN: 07224060     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00300-009-0671-9     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Araújo M. B, Thuiller W, Williams PH, Reginster I (2005) Downscaling European species atlas distributions to a finer resolution: implications for conservation planning. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 14:1-17
2. Barry S., Elith J (2006) Error and uncertainty in habitat models. J Appl Ecol 43:413-423
3. Boyce M. S, Vernier PR, Nielsen SE, Schmiegelow FKA (2002) Evaluating resource selection functions. Ecol Modell 157:281-300
4. Bradley A. P (1997) The use of the area under the ROC curve in the evaluation of machine learning algorithms. Pattern Recognit 30:1145-1159
5. Breiman L. (2001) Statistical modelling: the two cultures. Statistical Sci 16:199-215
6. Breiman L., Friedman J, Olshen R, Stone C (1984) Classification and regression trees. Wadsworth, Belmont, CA
7. Brink C. H, Dean FC (1966) Spruce seed as a food of red squirrels and flying squirrels in interior Alaska. J Wildl Manag 30:503-512
8. Burnham K. P, Anderson DR (1998) Model selection and inference: a practical information-theoretic approach. Springer-Verlag, New York, USA
9. Buskirk S. W (1984) Seasonal use of resting sites by marten in southcentral Alaska. J Wildl Manag 48:950-953
10. Calef M. P, McGuire AD, Epstein HE, Rupp TS, Shugart HH (2005) Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity to climate change using a logistic regression approach. J Biogeogr 32:863-878
11. Craig E., Huettmann F (2008) Using "blackbox" algorithms such as TreeNet and Random Forests for data-mining and for finding meaningful patterns, relationships and outliers in complex ecological data: an overview, an example using golden eagle satellite data and an outlook for a promising future. In: Hsiao-fan Wang (ed) Intelligent data analysis: developing new methodologies through pattern discovery and recovery. IGI Global, Hershey, PA, USA
12. Dunning J. B Jr, Stewart DJ, Danielson BJ, Noon BR, Root TL, Lamberson R. H, Stevens EE (1995) Spatially explicit population models: current forms and future uses. Ecol Appl 5:3-11
13. Elith J., Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudik M, Ferrier S, Guisan A, Hijmans R. J, Huettmann F, Leathwick JR, Lehmann A, Li J, Lohmann L. G, Loiselle BA, Manion G, Moritz C, Nakamura M, Nakazawa Y., JMcC Overton, Peterson AT, Phillips SJ, Richardson K. S, Scachetti-Pereira R, Schapire RE, Soberon J, Williams S., Wisz MS, Zimmermann NE (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecogr 29:129-151
14. Ellenberg H. (1988) Vegetation ecology of Central Europe, 4th edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
15. Engler R., Guisan A, Rechsteiner L (2004) An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data. J Appl Ecol 41:263-274
16. Farr A., Harris AS (1979) Site index of Sitka Spruce along the Pacific Coast related to latitude and temperatures. For Sci 25:145-153
17. Ferrier S., Guisan A (2006) Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level. J Appl Ecol 43:393-404
18. Ferrier S., Drielsma M, Manion G, Watson G (2002) Extended statistical approaches to modelling spatial pattern in biodiversity in northeast New South Wales. II. Community-level modelling. Biodivers Conserv 11:2309-2338
19. Fielding A. H (2002) What are the appropriate characteristics of an accuracy measure? In: Scott JM, Heglund PJ, Morrison ML, Haufler J. B, Raphael MG, Wall WA, Samson FB (eds) Predicting species occurrences: issues of accuracy and scale. Island Press, Covelo, CA, pp 271-280
20. Fielding A. H, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38-49
21. Fleming M. (1997) A statewide vegetation map of Alaska using phenological classification of AVHRR data. In: Walker DA, Lillie A. C (eds) The second circumpolar arctic vegetation mapping workshop, Arendal, Norway, 18-24 May 1996 and the CAVM-North American Workshop, Anchorage, Alaska, US, 14-16 January 1997. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, Boulder, CO, pp 25-26
22. Franklin J. (1995) Predictive vegetation mapping: geographical modelling of biospatial patterns in relation to environmental gradients. Proc Phys Geogr 19:474-499
23. Franklin J. (1998) Predicting the distribution of shrub species in southern California from climate and terrain-derived variables. J Veg Sci 9:733-748
24. Friedman J. H, Hastie T, Tibshirani R (2000) Additive logistic regression: a statistical view of boosting. Ann Stat 28:337-407
25. Gallant A. L, Binnian EF, Omernik JM, Shasby MB (1995) Ecoregions of Alaska US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1567. US Government Printing Office, Washington, DC
26. Graham C. H, Ferrier S, Huettmann F, Moritz C, Peterson AT (2004) New developments in museum-based informatics and applications in biodiversity analysis. Trends Ecol Evol 19:497-503
27. Graham C. H, Elith J, Hijmans RJ, Guisan A, Peterson AT, Loiselle BA, The Nceas Predicting Species Distributions Working Group (2008) The influence of spatial errors in species occurrence data used in distribution models. J Appl Ecol 45:239-247
28. Guisan A., Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecol Lett 8:993-1009
29. Guisan A., Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecol Modell 135:147-186
30. Guisan A., Theurillat J-P, Kienast F (1998) Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an alpine environment. J Veg Sci 9:65-74
31. Guisan A., Lehmann A, Ferrier S, Austin M, Overton JMcC, Aspinall R, Hastie T (2006) Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributions. J Appl Ecol 43:386-392
32. Guisan A., Graham C, Elith J, Huettmann F, NCEAS modelling Group (2007) Sensitivity of predictive species distribution models to change in grain size: insights from an international experiment across five continents. Divers Distrib 13:332-340
33. Hastie T., Tibshirani R, Friedman JH (2001) The elements of statistical learning: data mining, inference, and prediction. Springer, New York
34. Hennon P. E, Trummer LM (2001) Yellow Cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis) at the Northwest Limits of its Natural Range in Prince Williams Sound, Alaska. Northwest Sci 75:61-71
35. Hirzel A. H, Le Lay G, Helfer V, Randin C, Guisan A (2006) Evaluating the ability of habitat suitability models to predict species presences. Ecol Modell 199:142-152
36. Holsten E. H, Thier RW, Schmid JM (1991) The sprucebeetle. USDA Forest Service Forest Insect and Disease Leaflet 127
37. Huettmann F. (2007) Modern adaptive management: adding digital opportunities towards a sustainable world with new values. Forum Public Policy 3:337-342
38. Huettmann F., Diamond AW (2001) Seabird colony locations and environmental determination of seabird distribution: a spatially explicit seabird breeding model in the Northwest Atlantic. Ecol Modell 141:261-298
39. Hultén E. (1968) Flora of Alaska and neighbouring territories: a manual of vascular plants. University Press Stanford, Stanford
40. Interagency Working Group on Digital Data (2009) Harnessing the power of digital data for science and society. Report to the Committee on Science of the National Science and Technology Council. Washington DC
41. Juday G. P, Barber V, Berg E, Valentine D (1999) Recent dynamics of white spruce treeline forests across Alaska in relation to climate. In: Kankaanpaa S, Tasanen T, Sutinen M-L (eds) Sustainable development in Northern Timberline Forests. Proceedings of the Timberline Workshop, May 10-11, 1998 in Whitehorse, Canada. Finnish Forest Research Institute. Research Papers 734, pp 165-187
42. Kadmon R., Farber O, Danin A (2004) Effect of roadside bias on the accuracy of predictive maps produced by bioclimatic models. Ecol Appl 14:401-413
43. LaBau VJ, Alden JN (2000) Unalaska, Alaska: Revisiting North America's Oldest Afforestation Effort. J For 98:24-29
44. LaBau VJ, van Hees WS (1990) An inventory of Alaska's boreal forests: their extent, condition, and potential use. In: Condition, dynamics, anthropological influences. Proceedings of the International Symposium, 16-26 July, 1990. Archangelsk, Russia. State Forest Committee of the USSR. Part 6, pp 30-39
45. Lawler J. J, White D, Neilson RP, Blaustein AR (2006) Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability. Glob Chang Biol 12:1568-1584
46. Leathwick J. R, Whitehead D, McLeod M (1996) Predicting changes in the composition of New Zealand's indigenous forests in response to global warming: a modelling approach. Environ Softw 11:81-90
47. MacCracken JG, Viereck LA (1990) Browse regrowth and use by moose after fire in interior Alaska. Northwest Sci 64:11-18
48. Maggini R., Lehmann A, Zimmermann NE, Guisan A (2006) Improving generalized regression analysis for the spatial prediction of forest communities. J Biogeogr 33:1729-1749
49. Margules C. R, Austin MP (1994) Biological models for monitoring species decline: the construction and use of data bases. Phil Trans Roy Soc B 344:69-75
50. Masek J. G (2001) Stability of Boreal forest stands during recent climate change: evidence from Landsat Satellite Imagery. J Biogeogr 28:967-976
51. Murray D. F (1980) Balsam Poplar in Northern Alaska. Can J Anthropol 1:29-32
52. National Research Council of the National Academies (2003) Sharing Publication-related Data and Materials: Responsibilities of Authorship in the Life Sciences. The National Academic Press, Washington D. C, www.nap.edu
53. Parviainen M., Luoto M, Ryttäri T, Heikkinen RK (2008) Modelling the occurrence of threatened plant species in taiga landscapes: methodological and ecological perspectives. J Biogeogr. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2008.01922.x
54. Pojar J., Mackinnon A (1994) Plants of the Pacific Northwest Coast: Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alaska. Lone Pine Publishing, Redmond, WA
55. Prasad A. M, Iverson LR, Matthews S, Peters M (2007-ongoing) A climate change Atlas for 134 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas/tree
56. Risenhoover K. L (1989) Composition and quality of moose winter diets in interior Alaska. J Wildl Manag 53:568-577
57. Rupp T. S, Chapin FS, Starfield AM (2001) Modelling the influence of topographic barriers on treeline advance at the forest-tundra ecotone in northwestern Alaska. Clim Chang 48:399-416
58. Sinclair A. RE, Jogia MK, Andersen RJ (1988) Camphor from juvenile white spruce as an antifeedant for snowshoe hares. J Chem Ecol 14:1505-1514
59. Slough B. D (1989) Movement and habitat use by transplanted marten in the Yukon Territory. J Wildl Manag 53:991-997
60. Smith M. (1968) Red squirrel responses to spruce cone failure in interior Alaska. J Wildl Manag 32:305-317
61. Stockwell D. RB, Peterson AT (2002) Controlling bias in biodiversity data. In: Scott JM, Heglund PJ, Morrison ML, Haufler JB, Raphael M. G, Wall WA, Samson FB (eds) Predicting species occurrences: issues of accuracy and scale. Island Press, Washington, pp 537-546
62. Thompson R. S, Anderson KH, Strickland LE, Shafer SL, Pelltier RT, Bartlein P. J (2006) Atlas of relations between climatic parameters and distributions of important trees and shrubs in North America-Alaskan Species and Ecoregions. USGS Professional Paper 1650-D
63. Tsoar A., Allouche O, Steinitz O, Rotem D, Kadmon R (2007) A comparative evaluation of presence-only methods for modelling species distribution. Divers Distrib 13:397-405
64. Van Cleve K, Dyrness CT, Viereck LA, Fox J, Chapin FS III (1983) Taiga ecosystems in interior Alaska. Biosci 33:39-44
65. Viereck L. A, Foote JM (1970) The Status of Populus balsamifera and P. trichiocarpa in Alaska. Can Field Nat 84:169-173
66. Viereck L. A, Little EL (2007) Alaska trees and shrubs. Snowy Owl Books, Fairbanks
67. Viereck L. A, Van Cleve K, Dyrness CT (1986) Forest ecosystem distribution in the taiga environment. In: Van Cleve K, Chapin FS III, Flanagan PW, Viereck LA, Dyrness CT (eds) Forest ecosystems in the Alaskan taiga. Ecological studies 57. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY, pp 22-43
68. Viereck L. A, Dyrness CT, Batten AR, Wenzlick KJ (1992) The Alaska vegetation classification. General Technical Report No. 286. US Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR
69. Walker L. R, Zasada JC, Chapin FS III (1986) The role of life history processes in primary succession on an Alaskan floodplain. Ecol 67:1243-1253
70. Walter H. (1985) Vegetation of the earth and ecological systems of geobiosphere, 3rd edn. Springer, Heidelberg
71. Walters C. J (1986) Adaptive management of renewable resources. McGraw Hill, New York
72. Whittaker R. H (1967) Gradient analysis of vegetation. Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc 42:207-264
73. Wolff J. O (1978) Food habits of snowshoe hares in interior Alaska. J Wildl Manag 42:148-153
74. Zimmermann N. E, Kienast F (1999) Predictive mapping of alpine grasslands in Switzerland: species versus community approach. J Veg Sci 10:469-482