Present and forecasted xeric climatic limits of beech and sessile oak distribution at low altitudes in Central Europe

Annals of Forest Science

Volumn 68, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 99-108

  Czúcz, Bálint ^a   Gálhidy, László ^b   Mátyás, Csaba ^c  

^a INSTITUTE OF EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE   (Hungary)

^b WWF Hungary   (Hungary)

^c NONE

Author keywords

Aridity; Climate change; Ensemble modelling; Range retraction; Trailing edge

Indexed keywords

ALTITUDE; ARIDITY; BIOCLIMATOLOGY; BIOME; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; DECIDUOUS FOREST; DROUGHT; ECOTONE; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; FOREST MANAGEMENT; LONGEVITY; MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; NICHE; PHENOTYPIC PLASTICITY; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; PREDICTION; SEASONALITY; SESSILE SPECIES; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; VULNERABILITY;

CENTRAL EUROPE;

FAGUS; QUERCUS PETRAEA;

EID: 80051532043     PISSN: 12864560     EISSN: 1297966X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s13595-011-0011-4     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (52)

1. Allen CD, Macalady AK, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Kitzberger T, Rigling A, Breshears DD, Hogg EH, Gonzales P, Fensham R, Zhang Z, Castro J, Demidova N, Lim JH, Allard G, Running SW, Semerci A, Cobb N (2010) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. For Ecol Manage 259:660-684
2. Araújo MB, Whittaker RJ, Ladle RJ, Erhard M (2005) Reducing uncertainty in projections of extinction risk from climate change. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 14:529-538 (Pubitemid 41703259)
3. Araújo MB, New M (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol Evol 22:42-47 (Pubitemid 44959170)
4. Beaumont LJ, Pitman AJ, Poulsen M, Hughes L (2007) Where will species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions. Glob Change Biol 13:1368-1385 (Pubitemid 47079772)
5. Berki I, Rasztovits E, Móricz N, Mátyás Cs (2009) Determination of the drought tolerance limit of beech forests and forecasting their future distribution in Hungary. Cereal Res Commun 37:613-616
6. Berry PM, Dawson TP, Harrison PA, Pearson RG (2002) Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Glob Ecol Biogeogr 11:453-462
7. Benito Garzón M, De Sánchez Dios R, Sainz Ollero H (2008) Effects of climate change on the distribution of Iberian tree species. Appl Veg Sci 11:169-178 (Pubitemid 351668897)
8. Bolliger J, Kienast F, Zimmermann NE (2000) Risks of global warming on montane and subalpine forests in Switzerland-a modeling study. Reg Environ Change 1:99-111
9. Bolte A, Czajkowski T, Kompa T (2007) The north-eastern distribution range of European beech-a review. Forestry 80(4):413-429 (Pubitemid 47511728)
10. Breiman L, Friedman J, Ohlsen R, Stone C (1984) Classification and regression trees. Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, New York
11. Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon W-T, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P, Regional Climate Projections et al (2007) In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M (eds) Climate change: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 747-845
12. Czajkowski T, Kuhling M, Bolte A (2005) Einfluss der Sommertrockenheit im Jahre 2003 auf das Wachstum von Naturverjüngungen der Buche (Fagus sylvatica L.) im nordöstlichen Mitteleuropa. Allg Forst-u J-Ztg 176:133-143 (Pubitemid 41360692)
13. Di Filippo A, Biondi F, Cufar K et al (2007) Bioclimatology of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the Eastern Alps: spatial and altitudinal climatic signals identified through a tree-ring network. J Biogeogr 34:1873-1892 (Pubitemid 47609719)
14. Dittmar C, Zech W, Elling W (2003) Growth variations of common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under different climatic and environmental conditions in Europe-a dendroecological study. Forest Ecol Manag 173:63-78 (Pubitemid 36260742)
15. Dormann CF (2007) Promising the future? Global change projections of species distributions. Basic Appl Ecol 8:387-397 (Pubitemid 47188062)
16. Ellenberg H (1988) Vegetation ecology of Central Europe, 4th edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
17. Fang J, Lechovicz MJ (2006) Climatic limits for the present distribution of beech (Fagus L.) species in the world. J Biogeogr 33:1804-1819 (Pubitemid 44376072)
18. Fielding AH, Bell JF (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environ Conserv 24:38-49 (Pubitemid 27376840)
19. Fischlin A, Midgley GF, Price JT, Leemans R, Gopal B, Turley C, Rounsevell M D A, Dube OP, Tarazona J, Velichko AA (2007) Ecosystems, their properties, goods, and services. In: Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP et al (eds) Climate change: impacts adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 211-272
20. Führer E, Járó Z (1992) Auswirkungen der Klimaaenderung auf die Waldbestaende Ungarns. Allg Forstztg 9:25-27
21. Gea-Izquierdo G, Martín-Benito D, Cherubini P, Canellas I (2009) Climate-growth variability in Quercus ilex L west Iberian open woodlands of different stand density. Ann For Sci 66:802
22. Goslee S. C., Dean L., The ecodist package for dissimilarity-based analysis of ecological data, J. Stat. Software 22 (2007) issue 7
23. Hampe A, Petit RJ (2005) Conserving biodiversity under climate change: the rear edge matters. Ecol Lett 8:461-467 (Pubitemid 40641134)
24. Hothorn T., Hornik K. Zeileis A. (2006a) Party: a laboratory for recursive partitioning. R package version 0.9-0. http://cran. r-project.org/doc/packages/party.pdf
25. Hothorn T, Hornik K, Zeileis A (2006) Unbiased recursive partitioning: a conditional inference framework. J Comput Graph Stat 15:651-674 (Pubitemid 44554201)
26. Iverson LR, Prasad A (2001) Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change. Ecosyst 4:186-199 (Pubitemid 32516205)
27. Jiménez-Valverde A, Lobo JM (2007) Threshold criteria for conversion of probability of species presence to either-or presenceabsence. Acta Oecol 31:361-369 (Pubitemid 46660666)
28. Jump AS, Hunt JM, Penuelas J (2006) Rapid climate change-related growth decline at the southern range edge of Fagus sylvatica. Glob Change Biol 12:2163-2174 (Pubitemid 44560726)
29. Jump A, Mátyás Cs, Penuelas J (2009) The paradox of altitude for latitude comparisons in species range retractions (Review). Trends Ecol Evol 24(12):694-700. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.007
30. Kölling C (2007) Klimahüllen von 27 Waldbaumarten. AFZ Wald 23:1242-1244
31. Koskela J, Teissier BA, du Cros E (eds) (2007) Climate change and forest genetic diversity: implications for sustainable forest management in Europe. Biodiversity International, Rome
32. Kramer K, Degen B, Buschboom J, Hickler T, Thuiller W, Sykes M, de Winter W (2010) Modelling exploration of the future of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) under climate change-range, abundance, genetic diversity and adaptive response. Forest Ecol Manag 259(11):2213-2222. doi: 10.1016/j.foreco.2009.12.023
33. Lebourgeois F, Cousseau G, Ducos Y (2004) Climate-tree-growth relationships of a Quercus petraea Mill. stand in the Forest of Bercé ("Futaie des Clos", Sarthe, France). Ann For Sci 61:361-372 (Pubitemid 39123278)
34. Lebourgeois F, Bréda N, Ulrich E, Granier A (2005) Climate-treegrowth relationships of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) in the French Permanent Plot Network (RENECOFOR). Trees Struct Funct 19:385-401 (Pubitemid 40912353)
35. Legendre P, Fortin MJ (1989) Spatial pattern and ecological analysis. Vegetatio 80(2):107-138 (Pubitemid 20418491)
36. Lenoir J, Gégout JC, Pierrat JC, Bontemps JD, Dhote JF (2009) Differences between tree species seedling and adult altitudinal distribution in mountain forests during the recent warm period (1986-2006). Ecography 32:765-777
37. Manel S, Williams HC, Ormerod SJ (2001) Evaluating presenceabsence models in ecology: the need to account for prevalence. Ecology 38:921-931 (Pubitemid 32974271)
38. Mátyás C (2007) What do field trials tell about the future use of forest reproductive material. In: Koskela J, Buck A, du Teissier Cros E (eds) Climate change and forest genetic diversity: implications for sustainable forest management in Europe. Biodiversity International, Rome, pp 53-69
39. Mátyás C, Vendramin GG, Fady B (2009) Forests at the limit: evolutionary-genetic consequences of environmental changes at the receding (xeric) edge of distribution. Ann For Sci 66:800-803
40. Mátyás C (2010) Forecasts needed for retreating forests (Opinion). Nature 464:1271
41. Millar CI, Stephenson NL, Stephens SL (2007) Climate change and forests of the future: managing in the face of uncertainty. Ecol Appl 17:2145-2151 (Pubitemid 351323457)
42. Monserud RA, Leemans R (1992) Comparing global vegetation maps with the kappa statistic. Ecol Model 62:275-293 (Pubitemid 23401171)
43. Ohlemüller R, Gritti ES, Sykes MT, Thomas CD (2006) Quantifying components of risk for European woody species under climate change. Glob Change Biol 12:1788-1799 (Pubitemid 44274735)
44. Penuelas J, Ogaya R, Boada M, Jump AS (2007) Migration, invasion and decline: changes in recruitment and forest structure in a warming-linked shift of European beech forest in Catalonia (NE Spain). Ecography 30:829-837 (Pubitemid 350292422)
45. R Development Core Team (2007) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, http://www. R-project.org
46. Raftoyannis Y, Radoglou K (2002) Physiological responses of beech and sessile oak in a natural mixed stand during a dry summer. Ann Bot 89:723-730 (Pubitemid 34635261)
47. Rehfeldt GE, Tchebakova NM, Milyutin LI, Parfenova EI, Wykoff WR, Kouzmina NA (2003) Assessing population responses to climate in Pinus silvestris and Larix spp. of Eurasia with climate transfer models. Euras J For Res 6:83-98
48. Solomon S., Qin D., Manning M. et al. (2007) (eds) Climate change: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
49. Sykes MT, Prentice IC, Cramer W (1996) A bioclimatic model for the potential distributions of north European tree species under present and future climates. J Biogeogr 23:203-233
50. Thuiller W, Vayreda J, Pino J, Sabate S, Lavorel S, Gracia C (2003) Large-scale environmental correlates of forest tree distributions in Catalonia (NE Spain). Glob Ecol Biogeogr 12(4):313-325
51. Thuiller W, Albert C, Araújo MB, Berry PM, Cabeza M, Guisan A, Hickler T, Midgley GF, Paterson J, Schurr FM, Sykes MT, Zimmermann NE (2008) Predicting global change impacts on plant species' distributions: future challenges. Perspect Plant Ecol Evol Systemat 9:137-152 (Pubitemid 351192351)
52. Zuur AF, Ieno EN, Elphick CS (2009) A protocol for data exploration to avoid common statistical problems. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 1:3-14