Projecting health-care expenditure for Switzerland: Further evidence against the 'red-herring' hypothesis

International Journal of Health Planning and Management

Volumn 26, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 246-263

  Colombier, Carsten ^a   Weber, Werner ^b  

^a Federal Finance Administration   (Switzerland)

^b 112000 Powder Horn Drive ^*  (United States)

Author keywords

Health care expenditure; Morbidity; Population ageing; Proximity to death

Indexed keywords

AGING; AGING POPULATION; COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS; ECONOMIC IMPACT; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; HEALTH CARE; HEALTH EXPENDITURE; HEALTH POLICY; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; POLICY MAKING;

AGE; AGED; ARTICLE; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HEALTH CARE COST; HUMAN; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MALE; MATHEMATICS; MORTALITY; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS; SWITZERLAND;

AGE FACTORS; AGED; FEMALE; FORECASTING; HEALTH CARE COSTS; HEALTH EXPENDITURES; HUMANS; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MALE; MATHEMATICS; MODELS, ECONOMETRIC; MORTALITY; SWITZERLAND;

SWITZERLAND;

CLUPEIDAE;

EID: 79961147904     PISSN: 07496753     EISSN: 10991751     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/hpm.1068     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Breyer F, Felder S.2006.Life expectancy and health care expenditures: a new calculation for Germany using the costs of dying. Health Policy75:178-186.
2. Baumol WJ.1993.Health Care, education and the cost disease: a looming crisis for public choice. Public Choice77:17-28.
3. Colombier C, Weber W.2008.Ausgabenprojektionen für das Gesundheitswesen bis 2050. Working Paper of the Group of Economic Advisers No. 10, Federal Finance Administration, Bern, Switzerland.
4. Dreger Ch, Reimers H-E.2005.Health care expenditures in OECD countries: a panel unit root and cointegration analysis. Int J Appl Econom Quant Stud2:5-20.
5. European Commission (EC).2006.Long-term sustainability of public finances in the European Union. European Economy No. 4/06, EC, Brussels.
6. Federal Statistical Office (FSO).2006.Szenarien zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung 2005-2050.Federal Statistical Office: Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
7. Fries JF.1980.Aging, natural death and the compression of morbidity.N Engl J Med303:130-135.
8. Fries JF.2003.Measuring and monitoring success in compression of morbidity. Ann Intern Med139:455-459.
9. Getzen TE.2000.Health care is an individual necessity and a national luxury: applying multilevel decision models to the analysis of health care expenditure.J Health Econ19:259-270.
10. Gray A.2005.Population ageing and health care expenditure. Ageing Horiz2005(2):15-20.
11. Gruenberg EM.1977.The failure of success. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc55:3-24.
12. Hall RE, Jones CI.2005.The value of life and the rise in health spending, NBER Working Paper No. 10737, Cambridge, MA.
13. Hartwig J.2008.What drives health care expenditure? Baumol's model of unbalanced growth revisited.J Health Econ27:603-623.
14. Hoepflinger F, Hugentobler V.2004.Pflegebeduerftigkeit in der Schweiz. Swiss Health Observatory: Bern, Switzerland.
15. Hsiao W, Heller PS.2007.What should macroeconomists know about health care policy? Working Paper No. 07/13, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.
16. Manton KG.1982.Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population. Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc60:183-244.
17. Michel JP, Robine JM.2004.A 'new' general theory of population ageing. Geneva Pap Risk Insur29:667-678.
18. Oliveira Martins, J, De la Maisonneuve Ch Bjørnerud S.2006.Projecting OECD health and long-term care expenditures: what are the main drivers? Economics Department Working Paper No. 477, OECD, Paris.
19. Productivity Commission Australia (PCA).2005.Modelling the aggregate impact of medical technology on expenditure-Technical Paper 1. Impacts of Advances in Medical Technology in Australia. Research Report, PCA, Melbourne. Available at:
20. Reinhardt UE.2003.Does the aging of the population really drive the demand for health care?Health Aff22:27-39.
21. Robine JM, Michel JP.2004.Looking forward to a general theory of population ageing.J Gerontol59A:590-597.
22. Salas C, Raftery JP.2001.Econometric issues in testing the age neutrality of health care expenditure. Health Econ10:669-671.
23. Stearns SC, Norton EC.2004.Time to include time to death? The future of health care expenditure predictions. Health Econ13:315-327.
24. Vuilleumier M, Pellegrini S, Jeanrenaud C.2007.Déterminants et évolution des coûts du système de santé en Suisse, Revue de la littérature et projections à l'horizon 2030.Federal Statistical Office (FSO): Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
25. Weaver F, Jaccard Ruedin H, Pellegrini S, Jeanrenaud C.2008.Les coûts des soins de longue durée d'ici à 2030 en Suisse, Working Paper no. 34, Swiss Health Observatory, Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
26. Werblow A, Felder S, Zweifel P.2007.Population ageing and health care expenditure: a school of 'red herrings'?Health Econ16:1109-1126.
27. Westerhout WMT.2006.Does ageing call for a reform of the health care sector?CESifo Econ Stud52:1-31.
28. Zweifel P, Felder S, Meiers M.1999.Ageing of population and health care expenditure: a 'red herring'?Health Econ8:485-496.
29. Zweifel P, Felder S, Werblow A.2004.Population ageing and health care expenditure: new evidence on the 'red herrings'.Geneva Pap Risk Insur29:652-666.