The Series Hazard Model: An Alternative to Time Series for Event Data

Journal of Quantitative Criminology

Volumn 27, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 379-402

  Dugan, Laura ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND   (United States)

Author keywords

Event data; Hazard modeling; Series hazard model; Time series

Indexed keywords

EID: 79961004060     PISSN: 07484518     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10940-010-9127-1     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Allison PD (1995) Survival analysis using the SAS system: a practical guide. SAS Institute Inc, Cary.
2. Alt JE, King G, Signorino CS (2000) Aggregation among binary, count, and duration models: estimating the same quantities from different levels of data. Polit Anal 9: 21-44.
3. Arey JA (1972) The sky pirates. Charles Schribner's Sons, New York.
4. Bartholomew B (2009) Fear and darkness: anti-abortion terrorism and the United States Supreme Court. Working Paper, The University of Maryland.
5. Box-Steffensmeier JM, Jones B (2004) Event history modeling. Cambridge University Press, New York.
6. Box-Steffensmeier JM, Zorn C (2002) Duration models for repeated events. J Polit 64: 1069-1094.
7. Braithwaite J (1989) Crime, shame and reintegration. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
8. Braithwaite J (2005) Pre-empting terrorism. Curr Iss Crim Justice 17: 96-114.
9. Brandt PT, Williams JT (2001) A linear poisson autoregressive model: the poisson AR(p) model. Polit Anal 9: 164-184.
10. Brandt PT, Williams JT (2007) Multiple time series models. Sage Publications, Inc, Thousand Oaks.
11. Brandt PT, Williams JT, Fordham BO, Pollins B (2000) Dynamic modeling for persistent event-count time series. Am J Polit Sci 44: 823-843.
12. Chen X, Minacapelli L, Fishman S, Orehek E, Dechesne M, Segal E, Kruglanski AW (2008) Impact of political and military interventions on terrorist activities in Gaza and the West Bank: a hazard modeling analysis. Poster presented at START Workshop, September 2008. College Park, MD.
13. Clarke RV, Felson M (eds) (1993) Routine activities and rational choice. Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick.
14. Cleves MA, Gould WW, Gutierrez RG (2004) An introduction to survival analysis using Stata College Station. Stata Press, TX.
15. Cook TD, Campbell DT (1979) Quasi-experimentation design & analysis issues for field settings. Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston.
16. Cornish DB, Clarke RV (1986) The reasoning criminal: rational choice perspectives on offending. Springer, New York.
17. Cox D (1972) Regression models and life-tables. J R Stat Soc Ser B (Methodological) 34: 187-220.
18. D'Alessio SJ, Stolzenberg L (1995) The impact of sentencing guidelines on jail incarceration in Minnesota. Criminology 33(2): 283-302.
19. Dugan L (2010) Estimating effects over time for single and multiple observations. In: Piquero A, Weisburd D (eds) Handbook of quantitative criminology. Springer, New York, pp 741-763.
20. Dugan L, Nagin D, Rosenfeld R (2003) Exposure reduction or retaliation? The effects of domestic violence resources on intimate partner homicide. Law Soc Rev 27: 169-198.
21. Dugan L, LaFree G, Piquero AR (2005) Testing a rational choice model of airline hijackings. Criminology 43: 1031-1066.
22. Dugan L, Huang JY, LaFree G, McCauley C (2009) Sudden desistance from terrorism: the Armenian secret army for the liberation of Armenia and the Justice Commandos of the Armenian Genocide. Dyn Asymmetr Conflict (forthcoming).
23. Ezell ME, Land KC, Cohen LE (2003) Modeling multiple failure time data: a survey of variance-correction proportional hazards models with empirical applications to arrest data. Sociol Methods 33: 111-167.
24. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) (1983) Aircraft hijackings and other criminal acts against civil aviation statistical and narrative reports. Office of Civil Aviation Security, Washington, DC.
25. Freeman JR (1989) Systematic sampling, temporal aggregation, and the study of political relationships. Polit Anal 1: 61-98.
26. Gibbs JP (1975) Crime, punishment, and deterrence. Elsevier, New York.
27. Greene WH (2008) Econometric analysis, 6th edn. Pearson Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River.
28. Holden RT (1986) The contagiousness of aircraft hijacking. Am J Sociol 91: 874-904.
29. Kaminski RJ, Edwards SM, Johnson JW (1998) The deterrent effects of oleoresin capsicum on assaults against police. Police Quart 1: 1-20.
30. Kelly P, Lim LL-Y (2000) Survival analysis for recurrent event data: an application to childhood infectious diseases. Stat Med 19: 13-33.
31. LaFree G, Dugan L (2007) Introducing the global terrorism database. Polit Viol Terror 19: 181-204.
32. LaFree G, Dugan L, Korte R (2009) Is counter terrorism counterproductive? Northern Ireland 1969-1992. Criminology 47: 501-530.
33. Land KC, McCall PL, Nagin DS (1996) A comparison of poisson, negative binomial, and semi-parametric mixed poisson regression models with empirical applications to criminal career data. Sociol Methods Res 24: 387-442.
34. Lawless JF (1982) Statistical models and methods for lifetime data wiley series in probabilty and mathematical statistics. Wiley, New York.
35. Lewis-Beck MS (1986) Interrupted time series. In: Berry WD, Lewis-Beck MS (eds) New tools for social scientists. Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, pp 209-240.
36. Lewis-Beck MS, Alford JR (1980) Can government regulate safety? The coal mine example. Am Polit Sci Rev 74: 745-756.
37. McDowall D, McCleary R, Meidinger EE, Hay RA (1980) Interrupted time series analysis. Sage Publications, Inc, Thousand Oaks.
38. McDowall D, Lizotte AJ, Wiersema B (1991) General deterrence through civilian gun ownership: an evaluation of the quasi-experimental evidence. Criminology 29: 541-559.
39. Nagin D, Paternoster R (1991) On the relationship of past and future participation in delinquency. Criminology 29(2): 163-190.
40. Nagin D, Paternoster R (2000) Population heterogeneity and state dependence: state of the evidence and directions for future research. J Quantitat Criminol 16(2): 117-144.
41. Paternoster R (1987) The deterrent effect of the perceived certainty and severity of punishment: a review of the evidence and issues. Justice Q 4: 173-217.
42. Pridemore WA, Chamlin MB, Cochran JK (2007) An interrupted time-series analysis of Durkheim's social deregulation thesis: the case of the Russian federation. Justice Q 24: 271-290.
43. Pridemore WA, Chamlin MB, Trahan A (2008) A test of competing hypotheses about homicide following terrorist attacks: an interrupted time series analysis of September 11 and Oklahoma City. J Quant Criminol 24: 381-396.
44. Shellman SM (2004a) Time series intervals and statistical inference: the effects of temporal aggregation on event data analysis. Polit Anal 12: 97-104.
45. Shellman SM (2004b) Measuring the intensity of international political events data: two interval-like scales. Int Interact 30: 109-141.
46. Shellman SM (2008) Coding disaggregated intrastate conflict: machine processing the behavior of substate actors over time and space. Polit Anal 16: 464-477.
47. Sherman LW (1993) Defiance, deterrence, and irrelevance: a theory of the criminal sanction. J Res Crime Delinq 30: 445-473.
48. Stata Press (2005) Stata times-series reference manual release 9. Stata Press, College Station.
49. Stolzenberg L, D'Alessio SJ (1994) Sentencing and unwarranted disparity: an empirical assessment of the long-term impact of sentencing guidelines in Minnesota. Criminology 32(2): 301-310.
50. Varriale J (2009) The threat of radical environmental and animal rights groups: the role of moral inhibitions in Monkey-Wrenching. Dissertation proposal, The University of Maryland.