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Volumn 333, Issue 6042, 2011, Pages 562-569

7 Billion and counting

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGE STRUCTURE; DEMOGRAPHIC HISTORY; DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION; DEMOGRAPHY; ECONOMIC CONDITIONS; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; FERTILITY; MORTALITY; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; POPULATION POLICY; SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT;

EID: 79960964536     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: 10959203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1209290     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (252)

References (78)
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    • An excellent overview of the demographic history of the world and a discussion of its implications appears in (2). See also (3).
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    • Unless otherwise indicated, demographic data are from (5)
    • Unless otherwise indicated, demographic data are from (5).
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    • note
    • As used here, "fertility" refers to the TFR, which is defined as the average number of children a population of women would have over their childbearing years if they were subject to the age-specific childbearing rates prevailing in a particular time period. The replacement fertility rate - that is, the rate required to maintain a steady population size in the long run - is approximately 2.1 children per woman, although a country with a high mortality rate for infants and young people or a relatively high sex ratio at birth (i.e., boys to girls) would need to have a higher fertility rate to keep the population constant.
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    • Unless otherwise indicated, all population projections are the medium-fertility estimates of the UN Population Division. These projections depend critically on trajectories of future fertility, mortality, and migration. The fertility trajectories are based on a Bayesian projection model whose parameters are estimated separately by country using data on each country's own TFR history and also on the TFR histories of all countries [both extending back as far as 1950; see (9)]. For the world as a whole, the medium-fertility trajectory declines smoothly from the current level of 2.5 to 2.2 in 2050. This change represents the net effect of TFR declines in 139 countries or economies and TFR increases in 58 (all of which are currently below replacement-level TFR). The low- and high-population projections are based on TFR trajectories that are 0.5 children below the medium and 0.5 children above the medium, respectively. Estimates of future life expectancy are based on historical country- and sex-specific trends and a model that anticipates more rapid gains in countries with lower current life expectancy. Assumptions about migration are based on past estimates and the policies that countries have adopted. Projected levels of net migration incorporate a slow decline through 2100.
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    • The concept of demographic transition can be traced back to (25) and (26). France represents an interesting historical exception to the standard pattern of demographic transition. Due to the early and widespread use of contraception among married couples, fertility decline coincided closely with mortality decline, and population grew relatively slowly. Some historians (27) attribute the defeat of France in the Franco-Prussian War to its slow rate of population growth.
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    • Fertility control was traditionally achieved in many populations by limiting the risk of conception through the delay of marriage. But the advent of modern contraception and increased education and autonomy (especially among women) have weakened the institution of marriage and the link between marriage and fertility in many societies. Increasing numbers of people cohabitate without being married and may remain unmarried throughout their childbearing years; the proportion of children being born outside of marriage has also tended to increase.
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    • Life expectancy at birth is the average age at death for a defined birth cohort, assuming that it is subject to a given set of age-specific mortality rates, typically those prevailing in its year of birth.
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    • note
    • Life expectancy also varies greatly within countries (and within states and regions in countries). In India, for example, life expectancy in 2001 varied from 73 in Kerala to 59 in Madhya Pradesh - a difference comparable to that between Hungary and Haiti at that time. For more detail on India, see (39).
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    • Maternal mortality data are from (41). More detail on maternal mortality appears in (42).
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    • The UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (45) favors instead the use of U5MR as a more robust indicator of progress in child survival because IMR data too often do not reflect all infant deaths in countries with deficient vital statistics.
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    • Some researchers (47) find that increased consumption of alcohol and stress stemming from sudden economic reforms were likely reasons for the 1990s rise in mortality. Brainerd (48) finds only mixed evidence on the impact of economic reform, in contrast to (49).
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    • In some instances, particularly in low-fertility countries, the data on sex ratio at birth are affected by generalized and systematic under-reporting (and, in some cases, even misreporting of the sex) of girl births.
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    • A thoughtful examination of the drivers of low fertility in Europe appears in (68).
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    • The youth dependency ratio is the ratio of people aged 0 to 14 to those aged 15 to 64.
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    • The liberalization of international capital flows may lessen the importance of domestic savings for economic growth.
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* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.