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1
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79960952034
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note
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An excellent overview of the demographic history of the world and a discussion of its implications appears in (2). See also (3).
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4
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79960946281
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Unless otherwise indicated, demographic data are from (5)
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Unless otherwise indicated, demographic data are from (5).
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5
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79960805614
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United Nations, New York
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United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (United Nations, New York, 2011); http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm.
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(2011)
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision
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6
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79960950618
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note
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As used here, "fertility" refers to the TFR, which is defined as the average number of children a population of women would have over their childbearing years if they were subject to the age-specific childbearing rates prevailing in a particular time period. The replacement fertility rate - that is, the rate required to maintain a steady population size in the long run - is approximately 2.1 children per woman, although a country with a high mortality rate for infants and young people or a relatively high sex ratio at birth (i.e., boys to girls) would need to have a higher fertility rate to keep the population constant.
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7
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79960958992
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R. Lee, Science 333, 569 (2011).
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(2011)
Science
, vol.333
, pp. 569
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Lee, R.1
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8
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79960957209
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note
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Unless otherwise indicated, all population projections are the medium-fertility estimates of the UN Population Division. These projections depend critically on trajectories of future fertility, mortality, and migration. The fertility trajectories are based on a Bayesian projection model whose parameters are estimated separately by country using data on each country's own TFR history and also on the TFR histories of all countries [both extending back as far as 1950; see (9)]. For the world as a whole, the medium-fertility trajectory declines smoothly from the current level of 2.5 to 2.2 in 2050. This change represents the net effect of TFR declines in 139 countries or economies and TFR increases in 58 (all of which are currently below replacement-level TFR). The low- and high-population projections are based on TFR trajectories that are 0.5 children below the medium and 0.5 children above the medium, respectively. Estimates of future life expectancy are based on historical country- and sex-specific trends and a model that anticipates more rapid gains in countries with lower current life expectancy. Assumptions about migration are based on past estimates and the policies that countries have adopted. Projected levels of net migration incorporate a slow decline through 2100.
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9
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79960486695
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10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5
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L. Alkema et al., Demography (2011); 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.
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(2011)
Demography
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Alkema, L.1
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10
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79960947031
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note
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The UN Population Division includes 49 countries in the "least developed" category (a subset of countries in the less developed regions): 34 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 5 in Oceania, and 1 in Latin America and the Caribbean. The list of countries in this category, which was first defined by the UN General Assembly in 1971 and is reviewed every 3 years by the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC), has changed considerably over time to reflect decolonization and development progress (11).
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11
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84856030208
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The Least Developed Countries Report 2010: Towards a New International Development Architecture for LDCs
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United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, The Least Developed Countries Report 2010: Towards a New International Development Architecture for LDCs (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, New York, Geneva, 2010); www.unctad.org/en/docs/ldc2010-en.pdf
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United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, New York, Geneva, 2010
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12
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0003395661
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United Nations, New York
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United Nations Population Division, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2010 Revision. (United Nations, New York, 2010); http://esa.un.org/wup2009/unup/ .
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World Urbanization Prospects: The 2010 Revision
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13
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79960969919
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E. Glaeser, Science 333, 592 (2011).
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Glaeser, E.1
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14
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World Bank, World Bank, Washington, DC
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World Bank, World Development Report (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009).
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(2009)
World Development Report
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18
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0004238374
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Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ
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J. Simon, The Ultimate Resource (Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ, 1981).
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(1981)
The Ultimate Resource
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Simon, J.1
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20
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Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ
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O. Galor, Unified Growth Theory (Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ, 2011).
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(2011)
Unified Growth Theory
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Galor, O.1
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24
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79960967002
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note
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The concept of demographic transition can be traced back to (25) and (26). France represents an interesting historical exception to the standard pattern of demographic transition. Due to the early and widespread use of contraception among married couples, fertility decline coincided closely with mortality decline, and population grew relatively slowly. Some historians (27) attribute the defeat of France in the Franco-Prussian War to its slow rate of population growth.
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26
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0003075526
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T. W. Schultz, Ed. Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago
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F. W. Notestein, in Food for the World, T. W. Schultz, Ed. (Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1945), pp. 36-57.
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Notestein, F.W.1
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28
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28544437412
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United Nations, New York, available at
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United Nations Population Division, World Contraceptive Use 2011 (United Nations, New York, 2011); available at www.un.org/esa/population/publications/ contraceptive2011/contraceptive2011.htm.
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(2011)
World Contraceptive Use 2011
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31
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79960933247
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note
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Fertility control was traditionally achieved in many populations by limiting the risk of conception through the delay of marriage. But the advent of modern contraception and increased education and autonomy (especially among women) have weakened the institution of marriage and the link between marriage and fertility in many societies. Increasing numbers of people cohabitate without being married and may remain unmarried throughout their childbearing years; the proportion of children being born outside of marriage has also tended to increase.
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33
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79960956821
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note
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Life expectancy at birth is the average age at death for a defined birth cohort, assuming that it is subject to a given set of age-specific mortality rates, typically those prevailing in its year of birth.
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37
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0011652537
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Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge
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R. W. Fogel, The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100: Europe, America, and the Third World (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2004).
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(2004)
The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100: Europe, America, and the Third World
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Fogel, R.W.1
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38
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79960955413
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note
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Life expectancy also varies greatly within countries (and within states and regions in countries). In India, for example, life expectancy in 2001 varied from 73 in Kerala to 59 in Madhya Pradesh - a difference comparable to that between Hungary and Haiti at that time. For more detail on India, see (39).
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39
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79960944892
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K. S. James, Science 333, 576 (2011).
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(2011)
Science
, vol.333
, pp. 576
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James, K.S.1
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40
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79960958417
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note
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Maternal mortality data are from (41). More detail on maternal mortality appears in (42).
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41
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77958531600
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World Bank, World Bank, Washington, DC
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World Bank, World Development Indicators 2010 (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010).
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(2010)
World Development Indicators 2010
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42
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35048892720
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K. Hill et al., Lancet 370, 1311 (2007).
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(2007)
Lancet
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Hill, K.1
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44
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79960967200
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note
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The UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (45) favors instead the use of U5MR as a more robust indicator of progress in child survival because IMR data too often do not reflect all infant deaths in countries with deficient vital statistics.
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45
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77956917665
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United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, United Nations Children's Fund, New York
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United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, Levels & Trends in Child Mortality. (United Nations Children's Fund, New York, 2010); www.childinfo.org/files/Child-Mortality-Report-2010.pdf
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(2010)
Levels & Trends in Child Mortality
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46
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79960958007
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note
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Some researchers (47) find that increased consumption of alcohol and stress stemming from sudden economic reforms were likely reasons for the 1990s rise in mortality. Brainerd (48) finds only mixed evidence on the impact of economic reform, in contrast to (49).
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47
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0032215819
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V. M. Shkolnikov, A. G. Cornia, D. A. Leon, F. Mesle, World Dev. 26, 1995 (1998).
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Shkolnikov, V.M.1
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Leon, D.A.3
Mesle, F.4
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57
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79960933033
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note
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In some instances, particularly in low-fertility countries, the data on sex ratio at birth are affected by generalized and systematic under-reporting (and, in some cases, even misreporting of the sex) of girl births.
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58
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79960931716
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X. Peng, Science 333, 581 (2011).
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Science
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Peng, X.1
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J. Cleland, J. F. Phillips, S. Amin, G. M. Kamal, The Determinants of Reproductive Change in Bangladesh: Success in a Challenging Environment (World Bank, Washington, DC, 1994).
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Miller, R.A.5
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67
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79960953341
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note
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A thoughtful examination of the drivers of low fertility in Europe appears in (68).
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68
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33748470031
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Low fertility in Europe: Causes, implications and policy options
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F. R. Harris, Ed. Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham, MD
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H.-P. Kohler, F. C. Billari, J. A. Ortega, "Low fertility in Europe: Causes, implications and policy options," in The Baby Bust: Who Will Do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes? F. R. Harris, Ed. (Rowman and Littlefield, Lanham, MD, 2006), pp. 48-109.
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The Baby Bust: Who Will Do the Work? Who Will Pay the Taxes?
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Kohler, H.-P.1
Billari, F.C.2
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69
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79960940917
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note
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The youth dependency ratio is the ratio of people aged 0 to 14 to those aged 15 to 64.
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70
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79960956622
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note
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The liberalization of international capital flows may lessen the importance of domestic savings for economic growth.
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71
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Stanford Univ. Press, Stanford, CA
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A. Mason, Ed., Population Change and Economic Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized (Stanford Univ. Press, Stanford, CA, 2001).
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Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2008 Revision
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Migration and Remittances, Issue Brief
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