Predicting the future burden of diabetes in Alberta from 2008 to 2035

Canadian Journal of Diabetes

Volumn 35, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 274-281

  Lau, Robin S ^a   Ohinmaa, Arto ^a,b   Johnson, Jeffrey A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA   (Canada)

^b INSTITUTE OF HEALTH ECONOMICS   (Canada)

Author keywords

Alberta Diabetes Surveillance System; Diabetes; Forecasting; Healthcare costs; Incidence; Modelling; Mortality; Prevalence

Indexed keywords

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; CANADA; CHILD; CONTROLLED STUDY; DIABETES MELLITUS; DISEASE COURSE; FEMALE; HEALTH CARE COST; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HEALTH SURVEY; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; INFANT; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MEDICAL DECISION MAKING; MORTALITY; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION STRUCTURE; PREDICTION; PRESCHOOL CHILD; PREVALENCE; SCHOOL CHILD;

EID: 79960935354     PISSN: 14992671     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/S1499-2671(11)53011-4     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Canadian Diabetes Association. The prevalence and costs of diabetes. http://www.diabetes.ca/diabetes-and-you/what/prevalence/. Accessed June 10, 2011.
2. Lipscombe L. The growing prevalence of diabetes in Ontario: Are we prepared? Healthc Q, 2007;10:23-25.
3. Chodick G, Heymann A, Wood F, Kokia E. The direct medical costs of diabetes in Israel. Eur J Health Econ, 2005;6:166-171.
4. Rubin R, Altman W, Mendelson D. Health care expenditures for people with diabetes mellitus, 1992. J Clin Endocrinol Metab, 1994;78:809A-809F.
5. Williams R, Van Gall L, Lucioni C. Assessing the impact of complications on the costs of type II diabetes. Diabetologia, 2002;45:S13-S17.
6. Public Health Agency of Canada. Report from the National Diabetes Surveillance System: Diabetes in Canada, 2009. http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/publicat/2009/ndssdic-snsddac-09/index-eng.php. Accessed June 10, 2011.
7. Hux JE, Ivis F, Flintoft V, Bica A. Diabetes in Ontario: Determination of prevalence and incidence using a validated administrative data algorithm. Diabetes Care, 2002;25:512-516.
8. King H, Aubert R, German W. Global burden of diabetes. Diabetes Care, 1998;21:1414-1431.
9. Wild S, Roglic G, Green A, Sicree R, King H. Global prevalence of diabetes; estimates from the year 2000 and projections for 2030. Diabetes Care, 2004;27:1047-1053.
10. Mainous A, Baker R, Koopman R, et al. Impact of population at risk of diabetes on projection of diabetes burden in the United States: An epidemic on the way. Diabetologia, 2007;50:934-950.
11. Boyle J, Honeycutt A, Narayan K, et al. Projection of diabetes burden through 2050. Diabetes Care, 2001;24:1936-1940.
12. Ohinmaa A, Jacobs P, Simpson S, Johnson J. The projection of prevalence and cost of diabetes in Canada: 2000 to 2016. Can J Diabetes, 2004;28(2):116-123.
13. Johnson J, Rabi D, Edwards A, Balko S. Chapter 4: Diabetes and Health Care Utilization in Alberta. In: Johnson J, ed. Alberta Diabetes Atlas 2009, Edmonton: Institute of Health Economics; 2009:43-85.
14. Brandle M, Herman W. The CORE Diabetes Model. Curr Med Res Opin, 2004;20:S1-S3.
15. Palmer A, Roze S, Valentine W, et al. The CORE Diabetes Model: Projecting long-term clinical outcomes costs and cost-effectiveness of intervention in diabetes mellitus (types 1 and 2) to support clinical and reimbursement decision-making. Curr Med Res Opin, 2004;20:S5-S26.
16. Clarke P, Gray A, Briggs A, et al. A model to estimate the lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes: The United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS no.68). Diabetologia, 2004;47:1747-1759.
17. O'Reilly D, Hopkins R, Blackhouse G, et al. Development of an Ontario Diabetes Economic Model (ODEM) and applications to a multidisciplinary primary care diabetes management program. http://www.path-hta.ca/Libraries/Reports/Development_of_an_Ontario_Diabetes_Economic_Model_ODEM_and_Application_to_a_Multidisciplinary_Primary_Care_Diabetes_Management_Program.sflb.ashx. Accessed June 10, 2011.
18. UK Prospective Diabetes Group. Intensive blood-glucose control with sulphonylureas or insulin compared with conventional treatment and risk of complications in patients with type 2 diabetes. UKPDS 33. Lancet, 1998;352:837-853.
19. Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Study Group. Effects of intensive glucose lowering in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 2008;358:2545-2559.
20. VADT Investigators. Glucose control and vascular complications in veterans with type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 2009; 360:129-139.
21. ADVANCE Collaborative Group. Intensive blood glucose control and vascular outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 2008;358:2560-2572.
22. Johnson J, Balko S. Chapter 2: Epidemiological Trends of Diabetes in Alberta. In: Johnson J, ed. Alberta Diabetes Atlas 2009, Edmonton: Institute of Health Economics; 2009:11-24.
23. Public Health Surveillance and Environmental Health. Population projections for Alberta and its Health Regions 2006-2035. http://www.health.alberta.ca/documents/Population-Projections-2006.pdf. Accessed June 10, 2011.
24. Lipscombe L, Hux J. Trends in diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality in Ontario, Canada 1995-2005: a population-based study. Lancet, 2007;369:750-756.
25. Johnson J, Balko S, Hugel G. Chapter 1: Background and Methods. In: Johnson J, ed. Alberta Diabetes Atlas 2009, Edmonton: Institute of Health Economics; 2009:1-10.
26. National Diabetes Surveillance System. National Diabetes Surveillance System (NDSS) Description. http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/ccdpc-cpcmc/ndsssnsd/english/ndss_description/index-eng.php. Accessed June 10, 2011.
27. ACCORD Study G, Cushman WC, Evans GW, et al. Effects of intensive blood-pressure control in type 2 diabetes mellitus. N Engl J Med, 2010;362:1575-1585.
28. ACCORD Study Group, ACCORD Eye Study Group, Chew EY, et al. Effects of medical therapies on retinopathy progression in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med, 2010;363:233-244.
29. Ismail-Beigi F, Craven T, Banerji MA, et al. Effect of intensive treatment of hyperglycaemia on microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes. Lancet, 2010;376:419-430.
30. Honeycutt A, Boyle J, Broglio K, et al. A dynamic Markov model for forecasting diabetes prevalence in the United States through 2050. Health Care Manag Sci, 2003;6:155-164.
31. Narayan K, Boyle J, Beiss L, Saaddine J, Thompson T. Impact of recent increase in incidence on future diabetes burden. Diabetes Care, 2006; 29:2114-2116.
32. Blanchard J, Ludwig S, Wajda A, et al. Incidence and prevalence of diabetes in Manitoba, 1986-1991. Diabetes Care, 1996;19:1936-1940.
33. Mokdad A, Ford E, Bowman B, et al. Diabetes trends in the US: 1990-1998. Diabetes Care, 2000;23:1278-1283.
34. American Diabetes Association. Economic cost of diabetes in the US in 2007. Diabetes Care, 2008;31:596-615.
35. Katzmarzyk P, Janssen I. The Economic Costs Associated With Physical Inactivity and Obesity in Canada: An Update. Can J Appl Physiol, 2004; 29:90-115.
36. Stokey E, Zeckhauser R. A Primer for Policy Analysis, New York: W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.; 1978.
37. Juneau CE, Potvin L. Trends in leisure-, transport-, and work-related physical activity in Canada 1994-2005. Prev Med, 2010;51:384-386.
38. Luo W, Morrison H, de Groh M, et al. The burden of adult obesity in Canada. Chronic Dis Can, 2007;27:135-144.
39. Shields M. Overweight and obesity among children and youth. Health Rep, 2006;17:27-42.
40. Shields M, Tjepkema M. Trends in adult obesity. Health Rep, 2006;17:53-59.
41. Johnson J, Vermeulen S, Toth E, et al. Increasing incidence and prevalence of diabetes among the Status Aboriginal population in urban and rural Alberta, 1995-2006. Can J, 2009;100:231-236.