Regional modeling of dry spells over the Iberian Peninsula for present climate and climate change conditions

Climatic Change

Volumn 107, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 625-634

  Sánchez, Enrique ^a   Domínguez, Marta ^a   Romera, Raquel ^a   de la Franca, Noelia López ^a   Gaertner, Miguel Angel ^a   Gallardo, Clemente ^a   Castro, Manuel ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CASTILLA LA MANCHA   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CHANGE CONDITIONS; CLIMATE CONDITION; DROUGHT CONDITIONS; DRY SPELLS; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; FUTURE CLIMATE; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; HEAVY PRECIPITATION; IBERIAN PENINSULA; IMPACT STUDY; MODELING RESULTS; PARAMETERIZATIONS; PHYSICAL MECHANISM; PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS; REGIONAL FEATURE; REGIONAL MODEL; REGIONAL MODELING; SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS; TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS;

CLIMATE MODELS; DROUGHT; MODELS; WATER SUPPLY;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

ARIDITY; CLIMATE MODELING; GLOBAL CHANGE; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGIONAL CLIMATE; RISK ASSESSMENT; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT;

IBERIAN PENINSULA;

EID: 79960932079     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0114-9     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Abaurrea J, Cebrián AC (2002) Drought analysis based on a cluster Poisson model: distribution of the most severe drought. Clim Res 22: 227-235.
2. Anagnostopoulou C, Maheras P, Karacostas T, Vafiadis M (2003) Spatial and temporal analysis of dry spells in Greece. Theor Appl Climatol 74: 77-91.
3. Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylhä K, Koffi B, Palutikof JP, Schöll R, Semmler T, Woth K (2007) Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Clim Change 81(S1): 71-95.
4. Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ (2007) Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Int J Climatol 27: 1595-1610.
5. Boberg F, Berg P, Thejll P, Gutowski WJ, Christensen JH (2010) Improved confidence in climate change projections of precipitation further evaluated using daily statistics from the ENSEMBLES models. Clim Dyn 35: 1509-1520. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-009-0683-8.
6. Castro M, Gallardo C, Jylhä K, Tuomenvirta H (2007) The use of a climate-type classification for assessing climate change effects in Europe from an ensemble of nine regional climate models. Clim Change 81(S1): 329-341.
7. Cebrián AC, Abaurrea J (2006) Drought analysis based on a marked cluster Poisson model. J Hydrometeorol 7: 713-723.
8. Christensen JH, Christensen OB (2007) A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate during this century. Clim Change 81(S1): 7-30.
9. Deni SM, Jemain AA, Ibrahim K (2008) The spatial distribution of wet and dry spells over Peninsular Malaysia. Theor Appl Climatol 94: 163-173.
10. Dutra E, Viterbo P, Miranda PMA (2008) ERA-40 reanalysis hydrological applications in the characterization of regional drought. Geophys Res Lett 35. doi: 10. 1029/2008GL035381.
11. Efron B, Tibshirani RJ (1993) An introduction to the bootstrap. Chapman & Hall, London.
12. Gao X, Giorgi F (2008) Increased aridity in the Mediterranean region under greenhouse gas forcing estimated from high resolution simulations with a regional climate model. Glob Planet Change 62: 195-209.
13. Gao X, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2006) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean region from a high resolution double nested RCM simulation. Geophys Res Lett 33(L03706). doi: 10. 1029/2005GL024954.
14. Haylock M, Hofstra N, Klein-Tank AMG, Klok EJ, Jones PD, New M (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. J Geophys Res 113(D20119). doi: 10. 1029/2008JD010201.
15. Herrera S, Fita L, Fernández J, Gutiérrez JM (2010) Evaluation of the mean and extreme precipitation regimes from the ENSEMBLES regional climate multimodel simulations over Spain. J Geophys Res 115(D21117). doi: 10. 1029/2010JD013936.
16. Herrera S, Gutiérrez JM, Ancell R, Pons MR, Frías MD, Fernández J (2011) Development and analysis of a 50-year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02). Int J Climatol. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 2256. Available online: 9 Dec 2010.
17. Hewitt CD (2005) The ENSEMBLES project: providing ensemble-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. EGGS Newslett 13: 22-25.
18. Huth R, Kyselý J, Pokorná L (2000) A GCM simulation of heatwaves, dry spells, and their relationships to circulation. Clim Change 46: 29-60.
19. Keyantash J, Dracup JA (2002) The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83: 1167-1180.
20. Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC (2007) Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. J Climate 20: 1419-1444.
21. Kjellström E, Boberg F, Castro M, Christensen JH, Nikulin G, Sánchez E (2010) On the use of daily and monthly temperature and precipitation statistics as a performance indicator for regional climate models. Clim Res 44: 135-150.
22. Lana X, Martínez MD, Burgueño A, Serra C, Martín-Vide J, Gómez L (2006) Distributions of long dry spells in the Iberian Peninsula, years 1951-1990. Int J Climatol 26: 1999-2021.
23. Lana X, Martínez MD, Burgueño A, Serra C, Martín-Vide J, Gómez L (2008) Spatial and temporal patterns of dry spell lengths in the Iberian Peninsula for the second half of the twentieth century. Theor Appl Climatol 91: 99-116.
24. Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders MA (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22: 1571-1592.
25. Martín-Vide J (2004) Spatial distribution of a daily precipitation concentration index in peninsular Spain. Int J Climatol 24: 959-971.
26. Martín-Vide J, Gómez L (1999) Regionalization of peninsular Spain based on the length of dry spells. Int J Climatol 19: 537-555.
27. Mavromatis T (2010) Use of drought indices in climate change impact assessment studies: an application to Greece. Int J Climatol 30: 1336-1348.
28. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Emissions scenarios. A special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
29. New M, Hulme M, Jones PD (1999) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part I: development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. J Climate 12: 829-856.
30. Pope V, Gallani M, Rowntree P, Statton R (2000) The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Clim Dyn 16: 123-146.
31. Rodríguez-Puebla C, Encinas AH, Nieto S, Garmendia J (1998) Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula. Int J Climatol 18: 219-316.
32. Rowell DP (2006) A demonstration of the uncertainty in projections of UK climate change resulting from regional model formulation. Clim Change 79: 243-257.
33. Sánchez E, Gallardo C, Gaertner MA, Arribas A, Castro M (2004) Future climate extreme events in the Mediterranean simulated by a regional climate model: a first approach. Glob Planet Change 44: 163-180.
34. Schmidli J, Frei C (2005) Trends of heavy precipitation and wet and dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th century. Int J Climatol 25: 753-771.
35. Tapiador FJ, Sánchez E, Gaertner MA (2007) Regional changes in precipitation in Europe under an increased greenhouse emissions scenario. Geophys Res Lett 34: L06701. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL029035.
36. Trigo RM, Palutikof JP (2001) Precipitation scenarios over Iberia: a comparison between direct GCM output and different downscaling techniques. J Climate 14: 4422-4446.
37. Vicente-Serrano SM (2006) Differences in spatial patterns of drought on different time scales: an analysis of the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resour Manag 20: 37-60.
38. Vicente-Serrano SM, Beguería S, López-Moreno JI, Angulo M, El Kenawy A (2010) A new global 0. 5 gridded dataset (1901-2006) of a multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought index datasets based on the Palmer drought severity index. J Hydrometeorol 11: 1033-1043. doi: 10. 1175/2010JHM1224.
39. Vicente-Serrano SM, Cuadrat-Prats JM (2007) Trends in drought intensity and variability in the middle Ebro valley (NE of the Iberian Peninsula) during the second half of the twentieth century. Theor Appl Climatol 88: 247-258.
40. Vicente-Serrano SM, González-Hidalgo JC, de Luis M, Raventós J (2004) Drought patterns in the Mediterranean area: the Valencia region (eastern Spain). Clim Res 26: 5-15.
41. Von Storch H, Zwiers F (1999) Statistical analysis in climate research. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.