A probabilistic method for energy storage sizing based on wind power forecast uncertainty

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

Volumn 26, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 1651-1658

  Bludszuweit, Hans ^a   Domínguez Navarro, José Antonio ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ZARAGOZA   (Spain)

Author keywords

Energy storage sizing; probability density function; short term forecast error; state of charge; wind power

Indexed keywords

EMPIRICAL PROBABILITIES; ENERGY CAPACITY; ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS; FORECAST ERRORS; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY; NOVEL METHODS; POWER OUT PUT; PROBABILISTIC METHODS; QUALITY DEGREE; SHORT-TERM FORECASTS; SHORT-TERM WIND POWER FORECAST; STATE OF CHARGE; STATISTICAL BEHAVIOR; UNCERTAINTY LIMITS; WIND FARM; WIND POWER FORECAST;

ELECTRIC UTILITIES; ENERGY STORAGE; FLYWHEELS; LEAD ACID BATTERIES; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; TIME SERIES; WIND POWER;

FORECASTING;

EID: 79960892539     PISSN: 08858950     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/TPWRS.2010.2089541     Document Type: Article

References (18)

1. T. Ackermann, K. Garner, and A. Gardiner, "Embedded wind generation in weak grids-Economic optimisation and power quality simulation," Renew. Energy, vol. 18, pp. 205-221, 1999. (Pubitemid 29471850)
2. J. O. G. Tande, "Exploitation of wind-energy resources in proximity to weak electric grids," Appl. Energy, vol. 65, pp. 395-401, 2000. (Pubitemid 30184251)
3. P. Pinson, C. Chevallier, and G. Kariniotakis, "Trading wind generation from short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 1148-1156, Aug. 2007. (Pubitemid 47278373)
4. G. N. Bathurst, J. Weatherill, and G. Strbac, "Trading wind generation in short term energy markets," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 782-789, Aug. 2002. (Pubitemid 35151758)
5. A. Fabbri, T. Gómez San Román, J. R. Abbad, and V. H. Méndez Quezada, "Assessment of the cost associated with wind generation prediction errors in a liberalized electricity market," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 1440-1446, Aug. 2005. (Pubitemid 41300957)
6. G. N. Kariniotakis, I. Martí, D. Casas, P. Pinson, T. Nielsen, H. Madsen, G. Giebel, J. Usaola, I. Sanchez, A. Palomares, R. Brownsword, J. Tambke, U. Focken, and M. Lange et al., "What performance can be expected by short-term wind power prediction models depending on site characteristicš," in Proc. EWEC'04, 2004. [Online]. Available: http://anemos.cma.fr/download/publications/ pub-2004-paper-EWEC04- BenchmarkingAnemos.pdf.
7. M. Korpaas, A. T. Holen, and R. Hildrum, "Operation and sizing of energy storage for wind power plants in a market system," Int. J. Elect. Power Energy Syst., vol. 25, no. 8, pp. 599-606, Oct. 2003.
8. G. N. Bathurst and G. Strbac, "Value of combining energy storage and wind in short-term energy and balancing markets," Elect. Power Syst. Res., vol. 67, no. 1, pp. 1-8, Oct. 2003.
9. J. P. Barton and D. G. Infield, "A probabilistic method for calculating the usefulness of a store with finite energy capacity for smoothing electricity generation from wind and solar power," J. Power Sources, vol. 162, no. 2, pp. 943-948, Nov. 2006. (Pubitemid 44755337)
10. P. Pinson, G. Papaefthymiou, B. Klöckl, and J. Verboomen, "Dynamic sizing of energy storage for hedging wind power forecast uncertainty," in Proc. IEEE/PES General Meeting, Calgary, AB, Canada, 2009.
11. J. V. Paatero and P. D. Lund, "Effect of energy storage on variations in wind power," Wind Energy, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 421-441, 2005. (Pubitemid 41788613)
12. G. Koeppel and M. Korpås, "Improving the network infeed accuracy of non-dispatchable generators with energy storage devices," Elect. Power Syst. Res., vol. 78, no. 12, pp. 2024-2036, Dec. 2008.
13. H. Bludszuweit, J. A. Domínguez-Navarro, and A. Llombart, "Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 983-991, Aug. 2008.
14. R. J. Bessa, V. Miranda, and J. Gama, "Entropy and correntropy against minimum square error in offline and online three-day ahead wind power forecasting," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 24, no. 4, pp. 1657-1666, Nov. 2009.
15. H. Bludszuweit, "Reduction of the uncertainty of wind power predictions using energy storage" Ph.D. dissertation, Univ. Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain, Jul. 2009. [Online]. Available: http://teide.cps.unizar. es:8080/pub/publicir.nsf/codigos/0583/$FILE/cp0583.pdf.
16. H. Madsen, P. Pinson, G. Kariniotakis, H. A. Nielsen, and T. S. Nielsen, "Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind power prediction models," Wind Eng., vol. 29, no. 6, pp. 475-489, 2005.
17. H. A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, and T. S. Nielsen, "Using quantile regression to extend an existing wind power forecasting system with probabilistic forecasts," Wind Energy, vol. 9, no. 1-2, pp. 95-108, 2006. (Pubitemid 43281988)
18. P. Pinson, H. Madsen, H. A. Nielsen, G. Papaefthymiou, and B. Klöckl, "From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production," Wind Energy, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 51-62, 2009.