Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)

Energy Policy

Volumn 39, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 5147-5158

  Chèze, Benoît ^a,b   Gastineau, Pascal ^c   Chevallier, Julien ^b,d  

^a IFP ENERGIES NOUVELLES   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ PARIS OUEST NANTERRE LA DÉFENSE   (France)

^c UNIVERSITÉ GUSTAVE EIFFEL   (France)

^d UNIVERSITÉ PARIS DAUPHINE   (France)

Author keywords

Energy efficiency; Jet fuel demand forecasts; Macro level methodology

Indexed keywords

AIR TRAFFICS; AIR TRAVELS; AVERAGE GROWTH RATE; DEPARTMENT OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY; ENERGY EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS; FUEL DEMAND; GEOGRAPHICAL ZONES; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGES; JET FUEL DEMAND FORECASTS; MACRO-LEVEL METHODOLOGY; TRAFFIC EFFICIENCY;

AIR TRANSPORTATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; FORECASTING; JET FUEL; MOTOR TRANSPORTATION;

FUELS;

AIR TRANSPORTATION; DEMAND ANALYSIS; ECONOMETRICS; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; FORECASTING METHOD; FUEL CONSUMPTION; GROWTH RATE; TRAVEL DEMAND;

UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 79960720461     PISSN: 03014215     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.05.049     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Airbus, 2007. Flying by Nature: Global Market Forecast 2007-2026. Airbus, France.
2. Boeing, 2007. Current Market Outlook 2007. Boeing, USA.
3. Brannigan, C., Paschos, V., Eyers, C., Wood, J., 2009. Report on International Aviation and Maritime Emissions in a Copenhagen (post 2012) Agreement. AEA and QINETIQ. Report to the UK Department for Transport, June, UK.
4. Chèze, B., Gastineau, P., Chevallier, J., 2010. Forecasting Air Traffic and Corresponding Jet-Fuel Demand until 2025. Les cahiers de l'économie 77, Série Recherche, IFP School.
5. Department for Transport (DfT), 2009. Forecasts of demand for air travel. DfT, UK.
6. Environmental Change Institute (ECI), 2006. Predict and Decide: Aviation, Climate Change and UK Policy. ECI, UK.
7. Eyers, C., Norman, P., Middel, J., Plohr, M., Michot, S., Atkinson, K., Christou, R., 2004. AERO2k Global Aviation Emissions Inventories for 2002 and 2025. QINETIQ Report to the European Commission, December, UK.
8. Gately D. Taking off: the US demand for air travel and jet fuel. The Energy Journal 1988, 9(2):93-108.
9. Greene D.L. Energy-efficiency improvement of commercial aircraft. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 1992, 17:537-573.
10. Greene D.L. Transportation and Energy 1996, Eno Transportation Foundation, Inc., Lansdowne, VA, USA.
11. Greene D.L. Transportation and energy, overview. Encyclopedia of Energy 2004, 6:179-188.
12. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2009a. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion. IEA, France.
13. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2009b. Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving Towards Sustainability. IEA, France.
14. International Energy Agency (IEA), 2009c. World Energy Outlook. IEA, France.
15. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1999. Aviation and the global atmosphere. In: Penner, J., Lister, D., Griggs, D., Dokken, D., and McFarland, M. (Eds.), A Special Report of IPCC Working Group I and III. Cambridge University Press, UK, USA.
16. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007a. Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Summary for policymakers. In: Pachauri, R.K., Reisinger, A. (Eds.), IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
17. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007b. Climate change 2007: synthesis report. In: Pachauri, R.K., Reisinger, A. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
18. Lee J.J. Can we accelerate the improvement of energy efficiency in aircraft systems?. Energy Conversion and Management 2010, 51:189-196.
19. Lee J.J., Lukachko S.P., Waitz I.A., Schäfer A. Historical and future trends in aircraft performance, cost, and emissions. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 2001, 26:167-200.
20. Lee J.J., Lukachko S.P., Waitz I.A. Aircraft and energy use. Encyclopedia of Energy 2004, 1:29-38.
21. Lee D.S., Fahey D.W., Forster P.M., Newton P.J., Wit R.C.N., Lim L.L., Owen B., Sausen R. Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century. Atmospheric Environment 2009, 43(22-23):3520-3537.
22. Macintosh A., Wallace L. International aviation emissions to 2025: can emissions be stabilised without restricting demand?. Energy Policy 2009, 37:264-273.
23. Mayor K., Tol R.S.J. Scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions from aviation. Global Environmental Change 2010, 20:65-73.
24. Mazraati, M., 2010. World aviation fuel demand outlook. OPEC Energy Review, March, 42-72.
25. Mutambirwa C., Turton B. Air transport operations in Zimbabwe 1980-1998. Journal of Transport Geography 2000, 8:67-76.
26. Nygren E., Aleklett K., Höök M. Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios. Energy Policy 2009, 37:4003-4010.
27. Owen, B., 2008. Fuel Efficiency development and prediction. main thematic area: climate change. MMU and Omega Working Paper, UK.
28. Peeters, P.M., Middel, J., Hoolhorst, A., 2005. Fuel Efficiency of commercial aircraft-an overview of historical and future trends. NLR-CR-2005-669 Working Paper. National Aerospace Laboratory, Amsterdam.
29. Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP), 2002. The Environmental Effects of Civil Aircraft in Flight. RCEP, Government of the United Kingdom.
30. Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change (SEG), 2007. Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable andManaging the Unavoidable. Scientific Expert Group Report on Climate Change and Sustainable Development, Prepared for the 15th Session of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development, United Nations Foundation and The Scientific Research Society, USA.
31. Shaw S-L., Lu R., Chen J., Zhou C. China's airline consolidation and its effects on domestic airline networks and competition. Journal of Transport Geography 2009, 17:293-305.
32. Vedantham A., Oppenheimer M. Aircraft emissions and the global atmosphere: long-term scenarios 1994, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, USA.
33. Vedantham A., Oppenheimer M. Long-term scenarios for aviation: demand and emissions of CO2 and NOx. Energy Policy 1998, 26(8):625-641.
34. Vespermann J., Wald A., Gleich R. Aviation growth in the Middle East-impacts on incumbent players and potential strategic reactions. Journal of Transport Geography 2008, 16(1):388-394.
35. Whitelegg, J., Cambridge, H., 2004. Aviation and Sustainability. Policy Paper, Stockholm Environment Institute.
36. Wickrama, U., Bedwell, D., Gray, L., Henderson, S., Olov-Nas, B., Pfeifer, M., Trautmann, C., 2003. Report of the FESG/CAEP6 Traffic and Fleet Forecast. International Civil Aviation Organization, Canada.