The abuse of regression in the National Health Service allocation formulae: Response to the Department of Health's 2007 'resource allocation research paper'

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A: Statistics in Society

Volumn 174, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 517-528

  Galbraith, Jane ^a   Stone, Mervyn ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bootstrap; Cross validation; Direct measurement; Healthcare; Regression modelling; Resource allocation formulae; Utilization regression approach; Weighted capitation

Indexed keywords

EID: 79960010505     PISSN: 09641998     EISSN: 1467985X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00700.x     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Asthana, S. and Gibson, A. (2006) In NHS Deficits, Sixth Report of Session 2005-6, vol. II, written evidence Ev 153. London: Stationery Office.
2. Asthana, S. and Gibson, A. (2008) Healthcare equity, health equity and resource allocation: towards a normative approach to achieving the core principles of the NHS. Rad. Statist., no. 96, 6-26.
3. Carr-Hill, R. A., Hardman, G., Martin, S., Peacock, S., Sheldon, T. A. and Smith, P. (1994) A formula for distributing NHS revenues based on small area use of hospital beds. Report. Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York.
4. Darzi, Sir Ara (2007) Healthcare for London: a Framework for Action. London: National Health Service.
5. Department of Health (2007) Explaining NHS Deficits, 2003/04-2005/06. London: Department of Health.
6. Department of Health (2008a) Resource Allocation: Weighted Capitation Formula, 6th edn. London: Department of Health.
7. Department of Health (2008b) Report of the Advisory Committee on Resource Allocation. London: Department of Health.
8. Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R. (1993) Introduction to the Bootstrap. New York: Chapman and Hall.
9. Gainsbury, S. (2009) Politicians accused of not facing reality. Hlth Serv. J., Sept. 10th, 4-5.
10. Galbraith, J. (2008) The fantasy of fair funding of primary care trusts. Rad. Statist., no. 96, 27-37.
11. Gravelle, H., Sutton, M., Morris, S., Windmeijer, F., Leyland, A., Dibben, C. and Muirhead, M. (2003) Modelling supply and demand influences on the use of health care: implications for deriving a needs-based capitation formula. Hlth Econ., 12, 985-1004.
12. Hjorth, U. J. S. (1994) Computer Intensive Statistical Methods: Validation, Model Selection and Bootstrap. London: Chapman and Hall.
13. House of Commons Health Committee (2007) NHS Deficits, First Report of Session 2006-07, vol. II. London: Stationery Office.
14. Morris, S., Carr-Hill, R., Dixon, P., Law, M., Rice, N., Sutton, M. and Vallejo-Torres, L. (2007) Combining age-related and additional needs. Report RARP 30. Department of Health, London.
15. Ramsey, J. B. (1969) Tests for specification errors in classical least-squares regression analysis. J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 31, 350-371.
16. Santry, C. (2009) PCTs urged to chase mental health value. Hlth Serv. J., Aug. 6th, 4.
17. Smith, P. C., Rice, N. and Carr-Hill, R. (2001) Capitation funding in the public sector (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 164, 217-257.
18. Stone, M. (1974) Cross-validatory choice and assessment of statistical predictions (with discussion). J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 36, 111-147; correction, 38 (1976), 102.
19. Stone, M. (2007) In NHS Deficits, First Report of Session 2006-07, vol. II, supplementary evidence, Ev 168-172. London: Stationery Office.
20. Stone, M. (2009) Failing to Figure: Whitehall's Costly Neglect of Statistical Reasoning. London: Civitas.
21. Stone, M. and Galbraith, J. (2006) How not to fund hospital and community health services in England. J. R. Statist. Soc. A, 169, 143-164.
22. Sutton, M., Gravelle, H., Morris, S., Leyland, A., Windmeijer, F., Dibden, C. and Muirhead, M. (2002) Allocation of resources to English areas: individual and small area determinants of morbidity and use of healthcare resources. Report RARP 26. Department of Health, London.
23. Thursby, J. and Schmidt, P. (1977) Some properties of tests for specification error in a linear regression model. J. Am. Statist. Ass., 72, 635-641.