Environmental signals in property damage losses from hurricanes

Hurricanes and Climate Change- Volume 2

Volumn , Issue , 2010, Pages 101-119

  Jagger, Thomas H ^a   Elsner, James B ^a   Burch, R King ^b  

^a FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NONE   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate; Hurricanes; Loss model; Property damage; Risk

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELS; HURRICANES; OCEANOGRAPHY; PRESSURE GRADIENT; RISKS;

CLIMATE; ENVIRONMENTAL SIGNALS; HURRICANE EVENTS; LOSS MODEL; NORTH ATLANTIC; OCEAN TEMPERATURE; PROPERTY DAMAGE; RETURN PERIODS;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

EID: 79958784745     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1007/978-90-481-9510-7_6     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (28)

1. Coles S (2001) An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer, New York
2. Coles S, Tawn JA (1996) A Bayesian analysis of extreme rainfall data. Appl Stat 45:463–478
3. Coles S, Pericchi LR, Sisson S (2003) A fully probabilistic approach to extreme rainfall modeling. J Hydrol 273:35–50
4. Elsner JB, Jagger TH (2004) A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling. J Climate 17:2813–2827
5. Elsner JB, Jagger TH (2006) Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts. J Climate 19:2935–2952
6. Elsner JB, Jagger TH (2008) United States and Caribbean tropical cyclone activity related to the solar cycle. Geophys Res Lett 35:L18705, doi:10.1029/2008/GL034431
7. Elsner JB, Bossak BH, Niu X-F (2001) Secular changes to the ENSO-U.S. hurricane relationship. Geophys Res Lett 28:4123–4126
8. Elsner JB, Niu X-F, Jagger TH (2004) Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. J Climate 17:2652–2666
9. Elsner JB, Kossin JP, Jagger TH (2008) The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature 455:92–95
10. Emanuel KA (1991) The theory of hurricanes. Ann Rev Fluid Mechan 23:179–196
11. Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter DJ (1996) Markov Chain Monte Carlo in practice. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London
12. Hsieh PH (2004) A data-analytic method for forecasting next record catastrophe loss. J Risk Insur 71:309–322
13. Jagger TH, Elsner JB (2006) Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United States. J Climate 19:3220–3236
14. Jagger TH, Elsner JB, Niu X-F (2001) A dynamic probability model of hurricane winds in coastal counties of the United States. J Appl Meteorol 40:853–863
15. Jagger TH, Elsner JB, Saunders MA (2008) Forecasting U.S. insured hurricane losses. In: Murnane R, Diaz H (eds) Climate extremes and society. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
16. Jones PD, Jónsson T, Wheeler D (1997) Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south-west Iceland. Int J Climatol 17:1433–1450
17. Katz RW (2002) Stochastic modeling of hurricane damage. J Appl Meteorol 41:754–762
18. Katz RW, Parlange MB, Naveau P (2002) Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Adv Water Resour 25:1287–1304
19. Lane MN (2008a) Beyond convergence, toward integration. Trade Notes, Lane Financial LLC, August 29, 2008
20. Lane MN (2008b) The measurement of ILS returns. Trade Notes, Lane Financial LLC, August 29, 2008
21. Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U, Fröhlich L, Pinto JG (2007) Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate. Geophys Res Lett 34:L05703, doi:10.1029/2006GL027663
22. Murnane RJ, Barton C, Collins E, Donnelly J, Elsner J, Emanuel K, Ginis I, Howard S, Land-sea C, Liu K-B, Malmquist D, McKay M, Michaels A, Nelson N, O’Brien J, Scott D, Webb T (2000) Model estimates hurricane wind speed probabilities. Eos Trans Amer Geophys Union 81:433–438
23. Pielke RA, Gratz J, Landsea CW, Collins D, Saunders MA, Musulin R (2008) Normalized hurricane damage in the United States 1900–2005. Nat Hazards Rev 9(1):29–42
24. Ropelewski CF, Jones PD (1997) An extension of the Tahiti-Darwin southern oscillation index. Monthly Weather Rev 115:2161–2165
25. Saunders MA, Lea AS (2005) Seasonal prediction of hurricane activity reaching the coast of the United States. Nature 434:1005–1008
26. Spiegelhalter DJ, Best NG, Gilks WR, Inskip H (1996) Hepatitis B: a case study in MCMC methods. In: Gilks WR, Richardson S, Spiegelhalter DJ (eds) Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice. Chapman & Hall/CRC, London, pp 21–43
27. Spiegelhalter DJ, Best NG, Carlin BP, van der Linde A (2002) Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit (with discussion). J Roy Stat Soc Ser B 64, Part q4:583–639
28. Walshaw D (2000) Modeling extreme wind speeds in regions prone to hurricanes. Appl Stat 49: 51–62