Summer-season forecast experiments with the NCEP climate forecast system using different land models and different initial land states

Journal of Climate

Volumn 24, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 2319-2334

  Yang, Rongqian ^a,b   Mitchell, Kenneth ^a   Meng, Jesse ^a,b   Ek, Michael ^a  

^a CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

^b IM Systems Group   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate models; Climate prediction; Land surface model; Summer warm season

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE FORECASTS; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DATA SYSTEMS; ENSEMBLE MEMBERS; LAND MODEL; LAND SURFACE MODELS; NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTIONS; OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY; REANALYSIS; SUMMER/WARM SEASON;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CONTROL; CLIMATOLOGY; EXPERIMENTS; FORECASTING; SURFACE MEASUREMENT;

CLIMATE MODELS;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; LAND SURFACE; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SUMMER; WARMING;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 79958134800     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3797.1     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Brankovic, C., T. N. Palmer, and L. Ferranti, 1994: Predictability of seasonal atmospheric variations. J. Climate, 7, 217-237.
2. Dirmeyer, P. A., 2001: An evaluation of the strength of landatmosphere coupling. J. Hydrometeor., 2, 329-344.
3. Dirmeyer, P. A., A. J. Dolman, and N. Sato, 1999: The Global Soil Wetness Project: A pilot project for global land surface modeling and validation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 851-878.
4. Dirmeyer, P. A., R. D. Koster, and Z. Guo, 2006: Do global models properly represent the feedback between land and atmosphere? J. Hydrometeor., 7, 1177-1198.
5. Ek, M. B., K. E. Mitchell, Y. Lin, E. Rogers, P. Grunmann, V. Koren, G. Gayno, and J. D. Tarpley, 2003: Implementation of Noah land surface model advances in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational mesoscale Eta model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8851, doi:10.1029/2002JD003296.
6. Fan, Y., and H. van den Dool, 2008: A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948-present. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D01103, doi:10.1029/2007JD008470.
7. Higgins, R. W., W. Shi, E. Yarosh, and R. Joyce, 2000: Improved United States precipitation quality control system and analysis. NCEP-Climate Prediction Center, Atlas 7, Climate Prediction Center. [Available online at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/research_papers/ncep_cpc_atlas/7/index.html.].
8. Hou, Y.-T., S.Moorthi, andK.A. Campana, 2002: Parameterization of solar radiation transfer in the NCEP models. NCEP Office Note 441, 46 pp. [Available online at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/officenotes/newernotes/on441.pdf.].
9. Ji, M., A. Leetmaa, and J. Derber, 1995: An ocean analysis system for seasonal to interannual climate studies. Mon. Wea. Rev., 123, 460-481.
10. Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S.-K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631-1648.
11. Koren, V., J. Schaake, K. Mitchell, Q. Duan, F. Chen, and J. Baker, 1999: A parameterization of snowpack and frozen ground intended for NCEP weather and climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19 569-19 585.
12. Koster, R. D., M. J. Suarez, and M. Heiser, 2000: Variance and predictability of precipitation at seasonal-to-interannual timescales. J. Hydrometeor., 1, 26-46.
13. Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2004a: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 305, 1138-1140.
14. Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2004b: Realistic initialization of land surface states: Impacts on subseasonal forecast skill. J. Hydrometeor., 5, 1049-1063.
15. Koster, R. D., andCoauthors, 2006:GLACE: TheGlobal Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Part 1: Overview. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 590-610.
16. Koster, R. D., Z. Guo, R. Yang, P. A. Dirmeyer, K. Mitchell, and M. J. Puma, 2009: On the nature of soil moisture in land surface models. J. Climate, 22, 4322-4335.
17. Koster, R. D., and Coauthors, 2010: Contribution of land initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiments. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L02402, doi:10.1029/2009GL041677.
18. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 131-141.
19. Lu, C.-H., Z. Guo, and K. Mitchell, 2005: Response of precipitation to soil moisture constraints in the NCEP global model simulations for GLDAS. Preprints, 85th AMS Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 4.4. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/87070.pdf.].
20. Mitchell, K. E., and Coauthors, 2004: The multi-institution North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS): Utilizing multiple GCIP products and partners in a continental distributed hydrological modeling system. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D07S90, doi:10.1029/2003JD003823.
21. Pan, H.-L., and L. Mahrt, 1987: Interaction between soil hydrology and boundary layer developments. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 38, 185-202.
22. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
23. Robock, A.,K.Y.Vinnikov,G. Srinivasan, J.K. Entin, S. E. Hollinger, N. A. Speranskaya, S. Liu, andA.Namkhai, 2000: The global soil moisture data bank. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81, 1281-1299.
24. Rodell, M., and Coauthors, 2004: The global land data assimilation system. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 381-394.
25. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP climate forecast system. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
26. Shukla, J., 1998: Predictability in the midst of chaos: A scientific basis for climate forecasting. Science, 215, 1498-1501.
27. Shukla, J., and Y. Mintz, 1982: Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the Earth's climate. Science, 282, 1498-1501.
28. Tribbia, J., and D. P. Baumhefner, 1988: Estimates of the predictability of low-frequency variability with a spectral general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2306-2317.
29. Vinnikov,K.Y., A. Robock, N.A. Speranskaya, and C.A. Schlosser, 1996: Scales of temporal and spatial variability of midlatitude soil moisture. J. Geophys. Res., 101, 7163-7174.
30. Wallace, J. M., E. M. Rasmusson, T. P. Mitchell, V. E. Kousky, E. S. Sarachik, and H. von Storch, 1998: On the structure and evolution of ENSO-related climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Lessons from TOGA. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14 241-14 259.
31. Wu, W., and R. E. Dickinson, 2004: Time scales of layered soil moisture memory in the context of land-atmosphere interactions. J. Climate, 17, 2752-2764.
32. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation:A17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539-2558.
33. Zhang, J., W. Wang, and J. Wei, 2008: Assessing land-atmosphere coupling using soil moisture from the Global Land Data Assimilation System and observational precipitation. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D17119, doi:10.1029/2008JD009807.