Black Swan over Fukushima

Survival

Volumn 53, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 91-100

  Tertrais, Bruno ^a  

^a Fondation pour la Recherche Strategique   (France)

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EID: 79957923322     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2011.586193     Document Type: Article

References (12)

1. Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire, 'Information Report, 22 March 2011, http://www.irsn.fr/EN/news/Documents/IRSN_fukushimaradioactivity-released-assessment-EN.pdf.
2. A boiling-water reactor is a particular type of light-water reactor. The other standard type is the pressurised-water reactor. Light-water reactors comprise about 85% of the world's electricitygenerating reactors; most others are heavy-water reactors and gas-graphite reactors.
3. Two EPRs (in Finland and France) and four AP-1000s (in China) are under construction.
4. In 2010, a total of 55 reactors were under construction in 12 countries.
5. Three reactors are under construction in the United States. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has granted extension of licenses for 64 existing reactors. In January 2011, President Barack Obama proposed an expansion of US Department of Energy loan guarantees for the construction of up to 20 new plants to the amount of $36 billion, in addition to $18.5bn already approved.
6. Nuclear Programs in the Middle East: In the Shadow of Iran, IISS Strategic Dossier, (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2008).
7. 'Iran Dismisses Post-Fukushima Nuclear Rethink', IISS Strategic Comments, vol. 17, no. 15, April 2011, http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/april/iran-dismissespost-fukushima-nuclear-rethink/.
8. Iran is not an adherent to the Convention on Nuclear Safety and does not have a truly independent regulator.
9. An in-depth treatment of nuclear proliferation risks in the Middle East would need to take into account factors that go beyond the scope of this essay: the strategic orientation of the new Arab regimes, the new crisis of confidence between Riyadh and Washington, and the risk that the intervention in Libya will revive the argument that only nuclear weapons can protect against the West.
10. Matthew Fuhrmann, Nuclear Inertia', Slate, 26 April 2011, http://www.slate.com/id/2292075.
11. While the human toll of the Chernobyl tragedy continues to be a subject of contention, the most in-depth work on the topic estimated that there were 47 deaths following excessive radiation absorption and up to 4,000 additional fatal cancers in the region in the long run. International Atomic Energy Agency, Chernobyl's Legacy: Health, Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts (Vienna: IAEA, 2006), http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Booklets/Chernobyl/chernobyl.pdf.
12. Nuclear Energy Agency, Comparing Nuclear Accident Risks with Those from Other Energy Sources (Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, 2010), http://www.oecd-nea.org/ndd/reports/2010/nea6862-comparingrisks.pdf.