21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Global Change Biology

Volumn 17, Issue 7, 2011, Pages 2330-2341

  Engler, Robin ^a   Randin, Christophe F ^b   Thuiller, Wilfried ^c   Dullinger, Stefan ^d,e   Zimmermann, Niklaus E ^f   Araújo, Miguel B ^g,h   Pearman, Peter B ^a,f   Le Lay, Gwenaëlle ^a   Piedallu, Christian ^i,j   Albert, Cécile H ^c   Choler, Philippe ^c,k   Coldea, Gheorghe ^l   De Lamo, Xavier ^m   Dirnböck, Thomas ⁿ   Gégout, Jean Claude ^i,j   Gómez García, Daniel ^o   Grytnes, John Arvid ^p   Heegaard, Einar ^q   Høistad, Fride ^p,q   Nogués Bravo, David ^g,r   Normand, Signe ^f,s   Puşcaş, Mihai ^t   Sebastià, Maria Teresa ^m,u   Stanisci, Angela ^v   Theurillat, Jean Paul ^w,x   Trivedi, Mandar R ^y   Vittoz, Pascal ^a   Guisan, Antoine ^a   more..

^a UNIVERSITY OF LAUSANNE   (Switzerland)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BASEL   (Switzerland)

^c UNIVERSITÉ JOSEPH FOURIER   (France)

^d Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses   (Austria)

^e UNIVERSITY OF VIENNA   (Austria)

^f SWISS FEDERAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE WSL   (Switzerland)

^g MUSEO NACIONAL DE CIENCIAS NATURALES   (Spain)

^h UNIVERSITY OF ÉVORA   (Portugal)

ⁱ AGROPARISTECH   (France)

^j CEMAGREF   (France)

^k UNIV GRENOBLE ALPES   (France)

^l INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGICAL RESEARCH   (Romania)

^m CENTRE TECNOLÒGIC FORESTAL DE CATALUNYA   (Spain)

ⁿ ENVIRONMENT AGENCY AUSTRIA   (Austria)

^o INSTITUTO PIRENAICO DE ECOLOGÍA   (Spain)

^p UNIVERSITY OF BERGEN   (Norway)

^q NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF BIOECONOMY RESEARCH   (Norway)

^r UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^s AARHUS UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

^t BABE BOLYAI UNIVERSITY   (Romania)

^u UNIVERSITY OF LLEIDA   (Spain)

^v UNIVERSITY OF MOLISE   (Italy)

^w Fondation J M Aubert   (Switzerland)

^x UNIVERSITY OF GENEVA   (Switzerland)

^y John Krebs Field Station   (United Kingdom)

more..

Author keywords

Alpine plants; Europe vegetation; Global change; Impact assessment; Species distribution models

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT; GLOBAL WARMING; HABITAT LOSS; MOUNTAIN REGION; NUMERICAL MODEL; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; VEGETATION;

ALPS; HIGHLAND; PYRENEES; SCANDES MOUNTAINS; SCOTLAND; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 79957814431     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02393.x     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Akaike H (1974) A new look at statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19, 716-722.
2. Akçakaya HR, Butchart SHM, Mace GM, Stuart SN, Hilton-Taylor C (2006) Use and misuse of the IUCN Red List Criteria in projecting climate change impacts on biodiversity. Global Change Biology, 12, 2037-2043.
3. Allouche O, Tsoar A, Kadmon R (2006) Assessing the accuracy of species distribution models: prevalence, kappa and the true skill statistic (TSS). Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223-1232.
4. Araújo MB, New M (2007) Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 22, 42-47.
5. Araújo MB, Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Erhard M (2005) Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change. Global Change Biology, 11, 1504-1513.
6. Bakkenes M, Alkemade JRM, Ihle F, Leemans R, Latour JB (2002) Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology, 8, 390-407.
7. Beniston M, Fox DG, Adhikary S et al. (eds) (1996) The Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Regions. Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Chapter 5. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
8. Berry P (ed.) (2009) Biodiversity in the Balance-Mitigation and Adaptation Conflicts and Synergies. Sofia-Moscow, Pensoft.
9. Breiman L (2001) Random Forests. Machine Learning, 45, 5-32.
10. Brooker RW (2006) Plant-plant interactions and environmental change. New Phytologist, 171, 271-284.
11. Davis AJ, Jenkinson LS, Lawton JH, Shorrocks B, Wood S (1998) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature, 391, 783-786.
12. Davis MB, Shaw RG (2001) Range shifts and adaptive responses to quaternary climate change. Science, 292, 673-679.
13. De Chazal J, Rounsevell MDA (2009) Land-use and climate change within assessments of biodiversity change: a review. Global Environmental Change, 19, 306-315.
14. Dirnböck T, Dullinger S, Grabherr G (2003) A regional impact assessment of climate and land-use change on alpine vegetation. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 401-417.
15. Dirnböck T, Essl F, Rabitsch W (2011) Disproportional risk for habitat loss of high-altitude endemic species under climate change. Global Change Biology, 17, 990-996.
16. Engler R, Randin CF, Vittoz P, Czáka T, Beniston M, Zimmermann NE, Guisan A (2009) Predicting future distributions of mountain plants under climate change: does dispersal capacity matter? Ecography, 32, 34-45.
17. Etterson JR, Shaw RG (2001) Constraint to adaptive evolution in response to global warming. Science, 294, 151-154.
18. Friedman JH (1991) Multivariate adaptive regression splines. Annals of Statistics, 19, 1-67.
19. Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA et al. (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 16, 147-168.
20. Guisan A, Theurillat J-P (2000) Equilibrium modeling of alpine plant distribution and climate change: how far can we go? Phytocoenologia, 30, 353-384.
21. Guisan A, Thuiller W (2005) Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8, 993-1009.
22. Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2000) Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 135, 147-186.
23. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ (1982) The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Radiology, 143, 29-36.
24. Hastie T, Tibshirani R (1986) Generalized additive models. Statistical Science, 1, 297-318.
25. Hautier Y, Randin C, Stöcklin J, Guisan A (2009) Changes in reproductive investment with altitude in an alpine plant. Journal of Plant Ecology, 2, 125-134.
26. Heikkinen RK, Luoto M, Virkkala R, Pearson RG, Körber J-H (2007) Biotic interactions improve prediction of boreal bird distributions at macro-scales. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 16, 754-763.
27. IPCC (ed.) (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
28. Klanderud K, Birks HJB (2003) Recent increases in species richness and shifts in altitudinal distributions of Norwegian mountain plants. The Holocene, 13, 1-6.
29. Körner C (2003) Alpine Plant Life, 2nd edn. Springer, Berlin.
30. Leathwick JR, Austin P (2001) Competitive interactions between tree species in New Zealand's old growth indigenous forests. Ecology, 82, 2560-2573.
31. Lenoir J, Gégout JC, Marquet PA, De Ruffray P, Brisse H (2008) A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century. Science, 320, 1768-1771.
32. Liu CR, Berry PM, Dawson TP, Pearson RG (2005) Selecting thresholds of occurrence in the prediction of species distributions. Ecography, 28, 385-393.
33. Loarie SR, Duffy PB, Hamilton H, Asner GP, Field CB, Ackerly DD (2009) The velocity of climate change. Nature, 462, 1052-1055.
34. Marmion M, Parviainen M, Luoto M, Heikkinen RK, Thuiller W (2009) Evaluation of consensus methods in predictive species distribution modeling. Diversity and Distributions, 15, 59-69.
35. McCullagh P, Nelder JA (1989) Generalized Linear Models, 2nd edn. Chapman & Hall, London, UK.
36. Memmott J, Craze PG, Waser NM, Price MV (2007) Global warming and the disruption of plant-pollinator interactions. Ecology Letters, 10, 710-717.
37. Mitchell JFB, Johns TC, Senior CA (1998) Transient Response to Increasing Greenhouse Gases Using Models with and without Flux Adjustment. Hadley Centre Technical Note 2. UK Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell, UK.
38. Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the Globe: The Observed Record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). Working Paper 55. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK.
39. Mitchell TD, Jones PD (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 693-712.
40. Nakicenovic N, Swart R. (eds) (2000) Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
41. Nogués-Bravo D, Araújo MB, Errea MP, Martinez-Rica JP (2007) Exposure of global mountain systems to climate warming during the 21st century. Global Environmental Change, 17, 420-428.
42. Parolo G, Rossi G (2008) Upward migration of vascular plants following a climate warming trend in the Alps. Basic and Applied Ecology, 9, 100-107.
43. Pauli H, Gottfried M, Reiter K, Klettner C, Grabherr G (2007) Signals of range expansions and contractions of vascular plants in the high Alps: observations (1994-2004) at the GLORIA master site Schrankogel, Tyrol, Austria. Global Change Biology, 13, 147-156.
44. Pearman PB, Guisan A, Broennimann O, Randin CF (2008) Niche dynamics in space and time. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 23, 149-158.
45. Pearson RG, Dawson TP (2003) Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361-371.
46. Peñuelas J, Boada M (2003) A global change-induced biome shift in the Montseny mountains (NE Spain). Global Change Biology, 9, 131-140.
47. Peterson AT, Soberon J, Sanchez-Cordero V (1999) Conservatism of ecological niches in evolutionary time. Science, 285, 1265-1267.
48. Prentice IC, Cramer W, Harrison SP, Leemans R, Monserud RA, Solomon AM (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography, 19, 117-134.
49. Randin CF, Engler R, Normand S et al. (2009) Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence. Global Change Biology, 15, 1557-1569.
50. R Development Core Team (2009) R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. ISBN 3-900051-07-0. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. Available at:
51. Ridgeway G (1999) The state of boosting. Computing Science and Statistics, 31, 172-181.
52. Sanz-Elorza M, Dana ED, Gonzalez A (2003) Changes in the high-mountain vegetation of the central Iberian Peninsula as a probable sign of global warming. Annals of Botany, 92, 1-8.
53. Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R et al. (2005) Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310, 1333-1337.
54. Suttle KB, Thomsen MA, Power ME (2007) Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate. Science, 315, 640-642.
55. Swets JA (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 1285-1293.
56. Theurillat JP (1995) Climatic change and the alpine flora: some perspectives. In: Potential Ecological Impacts of Climate Change in the Alps and Fennoscandian Mountains (eds Guisan A, Holten JI, Spichiger R, Tessier L), pp. 121-127. Conservatoire et Jardin botaniques, Genèves.
57. Theurillat JP, Guisan A (2001) Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Climatic Change, 50, 77-109; 50(4), 529-530.
58. Thomas CD, Bodsworth EJ, Wilson RJ, Simmons AD, Davies ZG, Musche M, Conradt L (2001) Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins. Nature, 411, 577-581.
59. Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE et al. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145-147.
60. Thuiller W, Brotons L, Araujo MB, Lavorel S (2004) Effects of restricting environmental range of data to project current and future species distributions. Ecography, 27, 165-172.
61. Thuiller W, Lafourcade B, Engler R, Araújo MB (2009) BIOMOD - a platform for ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Ecography, 32, 369-373.
62. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araujo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102, 8245-8250.
63. Verburg PH, van Berkel DB, van Doorn AM, van Eupen M, van den Heiligenberg HARM (2010) Trajectories of land use change in Europe: a model-based exploration of rural features. Landscape Ecology, 25, 217-232.
64. Vittoz P, Bodin J, Ungricht S, Burga C, Walther GR (2008) One century of vegetation change on Isla Persa, a nunatak in the Bernina massif in the Swiss Alps. Journal of Vegetation Science, 19, 671-680.
65. Viviroli D, Weingartner R (2004) Hydrological significance of mountains: from regional to global scale. Hydrological earth systems. Science, 8, 1016-1029.
66. Walther G-R, Beissner S, Burga CA (2005) Trends in the upward shift of alpine plants. Journal of Vegetation Science, 16, 541-548.
67. Zemp M, Haeberli W, Hoelzle M, Paul F (2006) Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades? Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L13504, doi:DOI: 10.1029/2006GL026319.