Is it time to go yet? Understanding household hurricane evacuation decisions from a dynamic perspective

Natural Hazards Review

Volumn 12, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 72-84

  Czajkowski, Jeffrey ^a,b  

^a AUSTIN COLLEGE   (United States)

^b FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Dynamic decision making; Evacuation; Hurricanes

Indexed keywords

COST DATA; DYNAMIC DECISION MAKING; DYNAMIC FRAMEWORK; EVACUATION; EVACUATION TIME; GULF OF MEXICO; HURRICANE EVACUATION; HURRICANE LANDFALL; MODELING ASPECTS; MULTI-PERIOD; OPTIMAL CHOICE; OPTIMAL STOPPING PROBLEM; TIME-PERIODS; TIME-TO-GO;

DECISION MAKING; OPTIMIZATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

HURRICANES;

CALIBRATION; DECISION MAKING; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; HAZARD MANAGEMENT; HURRICANE; NUMERICAL MODEL;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; GULF OF MEXICO;

EID: 79957597089     PISSN: 15276988     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000037     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Blake, E., Rappaport, E., and Landsea, C. (2007). The deadliest, costliest, and most intense United States tropical cyclones from 1851 to 2006 (and other frequently requested hurricane facts). NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-5, National Weather Service National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL.
2. Centrec Consulting Group, LLC. (2007). An investigation of the economic and social value of selected NOAA data and products for geostationary operational environmental satellites (goes). Technical Rep. Prepared for NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, Centrec Consulting Group, Savoy, IL.
3. Czajkowski, J. (2007). Is it time to go yet? Dynamically modeling hurricane evacuation decisions. Florida International University International Hurricane Research Center Tech. Rep., http://www.ihc.fiu.edu/technical-reports/ index.htm (June 2007).
4. Dash, N., and Gladwin, H. (2007). Evacuation decision making and behavioral responses: Individual and household. Nat. Hazards Rev., 8 (3), 69-77. 1527-6988 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2007)8:3(69) (Pubitemid 47114688)
5. Dixit, A., and Pindyck, R. (1994). Investment under uncertainty, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
6. Dow, K., and Cutter, S. (2002). Emerging hurricane evacuation issues: Hurricane Floyd and South Carolina. Nat. Hazards Rev., 3 (1), 12-18. 1527-6988 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2002)3:1(12)
7. Fu, H., and Wilmot, C. (2004). A sequential logit dynamic travel demand model for hurricane evacuation. Paper Prepared for the Transportation Research Board 2004 Annual Meeting, January 2004, Louisiana Transportation Research Center, Baton Rouge, LA
8. Gladwin, H., Lazo, J., Morrow, B., Peacock, W., and Willoughby, H. (2007). Social science research needs for the hurricane forecast and warning system. Nat. Hazards Rev., 8 (3), 87-95. 1527-6988 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2007) 8:3(87) (Pubitemid 47114690)
9. Hurrevac. [computer software]. Sea Island Software, Richmond, VA. http://www.hurrevac.com/.
10. Kunkel, K., Pielke, R., and Changnon, S. (1999). Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: a review. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80 (6), 1077-1098. 0003-0007 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<1077:TFIWAC>2.0.CO;2 (Pubitemid 129555586)
11. Landry, C., Bin, O., Hindsley, P., Whitehead, J., and Wilson, K. (2007). Going home: Evacuation-migration decisions of Hurricane Katrina survivors. South. Econ. J., 74 (2), 326-343.
12. Lindell, M., Lu, J., and Prater, C. (2005). Household decision making and evacuation in response to Hurricane Lili. Nat. Hazards Rev., 6 (4), 171-179. 1527-6988 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2005)6:4(171) (Pubitemid 41596035)
13. Lindell, M., Prater, C., and Peacock, W. (2007). Organizational communication and decision making in hurricane emergencies. Nat. Hazards Rev., 8 (3), 50-60. 1527-6988 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2007)8:3(50) (Pubitemid 47114686)
14. Lindell, M., Prater, C., and Wu, J. (2002). Hurricane evacuation time estimates for the Texas Gulf Coast, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, TX.
15. Morrow, B., and Gladwin, H. (2005). Hurricane Ivan behavioral analysis. Federal Emergency Management Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
16. Multihazard Mitigation Council (MMC). (2005). Natural hazard mitigation saves: An independent study to assess the future savings from mitigation activities. National Institute of Building Sciences, Washington DC
17. National Hurricane Center (NHC). (2006). NHC archive of hurricane seasons., http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml (July 2006).
18. Norcross, B. (2006). Hurricane almanac 2006, St. Martin's Griffin, New York.
19. Rappaport, E. (2000). Loss of life in the United States associated with recent Atlantic tropical cyclones. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81 (9), 2065-2073. 0003-0007 10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<2065:LOLITU>2.3.CO;2
20. Regnier, E. (2008). Public evacuation decisions and hurricane track uncertainty. Manage. Sci., 54 (1), 16-28. 0025-1909 10.1287/mnsc.1070.0764 (Pubitemid 351206487)
21. Regnier, E., and Harr, P. (2006). A dynamic decision model applied to hurricane landfall. Wea. Forecast., 21, 764-780. 0882-8156 10.1175/WAF958.1 (Pubitemid 44660377)
22. Sadowski, N., and Sutter, D. (2005). Hurricane fatalities and hurricane damages: Are safer hurricanes more damaging? South. Econ. J., 72 (2), 422-432. (Pubitemid 41616792)
23. United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). (2006 a). http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/USHESdata/Louisiana/SWLA/cd/html/chapters/ chapter04/chapter-04-results.html (July 2006).
24. United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). (2006 b). http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/ushesdata/Post-Storm-Assessment-page.htm (July 2006).
25. Whitehead, J. (2003). One million dollars per mile? The opportunity cost of hurricane evacuation. Ocean Coastal Manage., 46, 1069-1083. 0964-5691 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2003.11.001 (Pubitemid 38484719)
26. Willoughby, H., Rappaport, E., and Marks, F. (2007). Hurricane forecasting: The state of the art. Nat. Hazards Rev., 8 (3), 45-49. 1527-6988 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2007)8:3(45) (Pubitemid 47114685)