메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 20, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 591-606

Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression

Author keywords

Exchange rate; Quantile regression; Volatility

Indexed keywords


EID: 79957573166     PISSN: 10590560     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2011.01.005     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (24)

References (69)
  • 1
    • 56949093455 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration
    • Al-Abri A.S., Goodwin B.K. Re-examining the exchange rate pass-through into import prices using non-linear estimation techniques: Threshold cointegration. International Review of Economics and Finance 2009, 18:142-161.
    • (2009) International Review of Economics and Finance , vol.18 , pp. 142-161
    • Al-Abri, A.S.1    Goodwin, B.K.2
  • 2
    • 0012692686 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An empirical investigation of continuous-time equity return models
    • Andersen T.G., Benzoni L., Lund J. An empirical investigation of continuous-time equity return models. Journal of Finance 2002, 57:1239-1284.
    • (2002) Journal of Finance , vol.57 , pp. 1239-1284
    • Andersen, T.G.1    Benzoni, L.2    Lund, J.3
  • 6
    • 34249655642 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the USA
    • Baak S.J., Al-Mahmood M.A., Vixathep S. Exchange rate volatility and exports from East Asian countries to Japan and the USA. Applied Economics 2007, 39:947-959.
    • (2007) Applied Economics , vol.39 , pp. 947-959
    • Baak, S.J.1    Al-Mahmood, M.A.2    Vixathep, S.3
  • 7
    • 0040485278 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity
    • Baillie R.T., Bollerslev T., Mikkelsen H.O. Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 1996, 74:3-30.
    • (1996) Journal of Econometrics , vol.74 , pp. 3-30
    • Baillie, R.T.1    Bollerslev, T.2    Mikkelsen, H.O.3
  • 9
    • 0013201796 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: New evidence from FIGARCH estimates
    • Beine M., Benassy-Quere A., Lecourt C. Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: New evidence from FIGARCH estimates. Journal of International Money and Finance 2002, 21:115-144.
    • (2002) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.21 , pp. 115-144
    • Beine, M.1    Benassy-Quere, A.2    Lecourt, C.3
  • 11
    • 42449156579 scopus 로고
    • Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity
    • Bollerslev T. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Econometrics 1986, 31:307-327.
    • (1986) Journal of Econometrics , vol.31 , pp. 307-327
    • Bollerslev, T.1
  • 12
    • 0030528472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: Evidence from the options market
    • Bonser-Neal C., Tanner G. Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: Evidence from the options market. Journal of International Money and Finance 1996, 15:853-878.
    • (1996) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.15 , pp. 853-878
    • Bonser-Neal, C.1    Tanner, G.2
  • 13
    • 0043226159 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilization
    • Burstein A.T., Neves J.C., Rebelo S. Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilization. Journal of Monetary Economics 2003, 50:1189-1214.
    • (2003) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.50 , pp. 1189-1214
    • Burstein, A.T.1    Neves, J.C.2    Rebelo, S.3
  • 15
    • 13544258980 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: Evidence from Canada and Japan
    • Choudhry T. Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: Evidence from Canada and Japan. Journal of Japanese and International Economics 2005, 19:51-71.
    • (2005) Journal of Japanese and International Economics , vol.19 , pp. 51-71
    • Choudhry, T.1
  • 16
    • 77956648605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trading platform, market volatility and pricing efficiency in the floor-traded and E-mini index futures markets
    • Chung H., Sheu H.J., Hsu S. Trading platform, market volatility and pricing efficiency in the floor-traded and E-mini index futures markets. International Review of Economics and Finance 2010, 19:742-754.
    • (2010) International Review of Economics and Finance , vol.19 , pp. 742-754
    • Chung, H.1    Sheu, H.J.2    Hsu, S.3
  • 17
    • 34547920173 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real exchange rate volatility and US exports: An ARDL bounds testing approach
    • De Vita G., Abbott A. Real exchange rate volatility and US exports: An ARDL bounds testing approach. Economic Issues 2004, 9:69-78.
    • (2004) Economic Issues , vol.9 , pp. 69-78
    • De Vita, G.1    Abbott, A.2
  • 19
    • 84963146757 scopus 로고
    • Modelling the persistence of conditional variance
    • Engle R.F., Bollerslev T. Modelling the persistence of conditional variance. Econometric Reviews 1986, 5:1-50.
    • (1986) Econometric Reviews , vol.5 , pp. 1-50
    • Engle, R.F.1    Bollerslev, T.2
  • 20
    • 4444289240 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CAViaR: Conditional autoregressive Value at Risk by regression quantiles
    • Engle R.F., Manganelli S. CAViaR: Conditional autoregressive Value at Risk by regression quantiles. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 2004, 22:367-381.
    • (2004) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics , vol.22 , pp. 367-381
    • Engle, R.F.1    Manganelli, S.2
  • 22
    • 13844292566 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility
    • Frenkel M., Pierdzioch C., Stadtmann G. The effects of Japanese foreign exchange market interventions on the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate volatility. International Review of Economics and Finance 2005, 14:27-39.
    • (2005) International Review of Economics and Finance , vol.14 , pp. 27-39
    • Frenkel, M.1    Pierdzioch, C.2    Stadtmann, G.3
  • 24
    • 34249020424 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Option prices, exchange market intervention and the higher moment expectations channel: A user's guide
    • Galati G., Higgins P., Humpage O., Melick W. Option prices, exchange market intervention and the higher moment expectations channel: A user's guide. International Journal of Finance and Economics 2007, 12:225-247.
    • (2007) International Journal of Finance and Economics , vol.12 , pp. 225-247
    • Galati, G.1    Higgins, P.2    Humpage, O.3    Melick, W.4
  • 25
    • 24644481000 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate
    • Galati G., Melick W., Micu M. Foreign exchange market intervention and expectations: The yen/dollar exchange rate. Journal of International Money and Finance 2005, 24:982-1011.
    • (2005) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.24 , pp. 982-1011
    • Galati, G.1    Melick, W.2    Micu, M.3
  • 26
    • 84993601065 scopus 로고
    • On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the normal excess return on stocks
    • Glosten L.R., Jagannathan R., Runkle D.E. On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the normal excess return on stocks. Journal of Finance 1993, 48:1779-1801.
    • (1993) Journal of Finance , vol.48 , pp. 1779-1801
    • Glosten, L.R.1    Jagannathan, R.2    Runkle, D.E.3
  • 27
    • 0031394483 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Equilibrium real exchange rate, volatility, and stabilization
    • Gonzaga G.M., Terra M.C.T. Equilibrium real exchange rate, volatility, and stabilization. Journal of Development Economics 1997, 54:77-100.
    • (1997) Journal of Development Economics , vol.54 , pp. 77-100
    • Gonzaga, G.M.1    Terra, M.C.T.2
  • 28
    • 0030242133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process
    • Gray S.F. Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process. Journal of Financial Economics 1996, 42:27-62.
    • (1996) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.42 , pp. 27-62
    • Gray, S.F.1
  • 31
    • 54349102329 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intraday effects of macroeconomic shocks on the US dollar-Euro exchange rates
    • Han Y.W. Intraday effects of macroeconomic shocks on the US dollar-Euro exchange rates. Japan and the World Economy 2008, 20:585-600.
    • (2008) Japan and the World Economy , vol.20 , pp. 585-600
    • Han, Y.W.1
  • 32
    • 19644379708 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A forecast comparison of volatility models: Does anything beat a GARCH(1, 1)?
    • Hansen P.R., Lunde A. A forecast comparison of volatility models: Does anything beat a GARCH(1, 1)?. Journal of Applied Econometrics 2005, 20:873-889.
    • (2005) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.20 , pp. 873-889
    • Hansen, P.R.1    Lunde, A.2
  • 33
    • 0036678973 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real exchange rate volatility and economic openness: Theory and evidence
    • Hau H. Real exchange rate volatility and economic openness: Theory and evidence. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 2002, 34:611-630.
    • (2002) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking , vol.34 , pp. 611-630
    • Hau, H.1
  • 35
    • 0002021472 scopus 로고
    • Volatility prediction: A comparison of stochastic volatility, GARCH(1, l) and EGARCH(1, l) models
    • Heynen R.C., Kat H.M. Volatility prediction: A comparison of stochastic volatility, GARCH(1, l) and EGARCH(1, l) models. Journal of Derivatives 1994, 2:50-65.
    • (1994) Journal of Derivatives , vol.2 , pp. 50-65
    • Heynen, R.C.1    Kat, H.M.2
  • 36
    • 58249086977 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility
    • Hillebrand E., Schnabl G. A structural break in the effects of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on yen/dollar exchange rate volatility. International Economics and Economic Policy 2008, 5:389-401.
    • (2008) International Economics and Economic Policy , vol.5 , pp. 389-401
    • Hillebrand, E.1    Schnabl, G.2
  • 37
    • 39749131058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real exchange rate stationarity in Latin America and relative purchasing power parity: A regime switching approach
    • Holmes M.J. Real exchange rate stationarity in Latin America and relative purchasing power parity: A regime switching approach. Open Economic Review 2008, 19:261-275.
    • (2008) Open Economic Review , vol.19 , pp. 261-275
    • Holmes, M.J.1
  • 38
    • 0001050698 scopus 로고
    • The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade
    • Hooper P., Kohlhagen S.W. The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade. Journal of International Economics 1978, 8:483-511.
    • (1978) Journal of International Economics , vol.8 , pp. 483-511
    • Hooper, P.1    Kohlhagen, S.W.2
  • 39
    • 79957567525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • (forthcoming). Volatility forecasting by quantile regression. Applied Economics.
    • Huang, A. Y. (forthcoming). Volatility forecasting by quantile regression. Applied Economics.
    • Huang, A.Y.1
  • 40
    • 85021287120 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Value at Risk when daily changes in market variables are not normally distribute
    • Hull J., White A. Value at Risk when daily changes in market variables are not normally distribute. Journal of Derivatives 1998, 5:9-19.
    • (1998) Journal of Derivatives , vol.5 , pp. 9-19
    • Hull, J.1    White, A.2
  • 41
  • 42
    • 0000841538 scopus 로고
    • The impact of exchange rate volatility on interenational trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model
    • Kroner K.F., Lastrapes W.D. The impact of exchange rate volatility on interenational trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model. Journal of International Money and Finance 1993, 12:298-381.
    • (1993) Journal of International Money and Finance , vol.12 , pp. 298-381
    • Kroner, K.F.1    Lastrapes, W.D.2
  • 44
    • 33745185344 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Local content requirement on foreign direct investment under exchange rate volatility
    • Lahiri S., Mesa F. Local content requirement on foreign direct investment under exchange rate volatility. International Review of Economics and Finance 2006, 15:346-363.
    • (2006) International Review of Economics and Finance , vol.15 , pp. 346-363
    • Lahiri, S.1    Mesa, F.2
  • 46
    • 33847046057 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymmetric volatility of stock returns during the Asian crisis: Evidence from Indonesia
    • Leeves G. Asymmetric volatility of stock returns during the Asian crisis: Evidence from Indonesia. International Review of Economics and Finance 2007, 16:272-286.
    • (2007) International Review of Economics and Finance , vol.16 , pp. 272-286
    • Leeves, G.1
  • 47
    • 34447528942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets
    • Malik F., Hammoudeh S. Shock and volatility transmission in the oil, US and Gulf equity markets. International Review of Economics and Finance 2007, 16:357-368.
    • (2007) International Review of Economics and Finance , vol.16 , pp. 357-368
    • Malik, F.1    Hammoudeh, S.2
  • 50
    • 0009890168 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments
    • Neely C. Target zones and conditional volatility: The role of realignments. Journal of Empirical Finance 1999, 6:177-192.
    • (1999) Journal of Empirical Finance , vol.6 , pp. 177-192
    • Neely, C.1
  • 51
    • 0038076516 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Value at risk calculations, extreme events, and tail estimation
    • Neftci S.N. Value at risk calculations, extreme events, and tail estimation. Journal of Derivatives 2000, 7:23-37.
    • (2000) Journal of Derivatives , vol.7 , pp. 23-37
    • Neftci, S.N.1
  • 52
    • 0000641348 scopus 로고
    • Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach
    • Nelson D. Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica 1991, 59:347-370.
    • (1991) Econometrica , vol.59 , pp. 347-370
    • Nelson, D.1
  • 53
    • 41849084852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles
    • Nikolaou K. The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles. Journal of Banking & Finance 2008, 32:664-679.
    • (2008) Journal of Banking & Finance , vol.32 , pp. 664-679
    • Nikolaou, K.1
  • 54
    • 33645716201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling asymmetric exchange rate dependence
    • Patton A.J. Modeling asymmetric exchange rate dependence. International Economic Review 2006, 47:527-556.
    • (2006) International Economic Review , vol.47 , pp. 527-556
    • Patton, A.J.1
  • 55
    • 0000698976 scopus 로고
    • Approximate means and standard deviations based on distances between percentage points of frequency curves
    • Pearson E.S., Tukey J.W. Approximate means and standard deviations based on distances between percentage points of frequency curves. Biometrika 1965, 52:533-546.
    • (1965) Biometrika , vol.52 , pp. 533-546
    • Pearson, E.S.1    Tukey, J.W.2
  • 56
    • 2342467440 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exchange rate volatility, sectoral trade, and the aggregation bias
    • Peridy N. Exchange rate volatility, sectoral trade, and the aggregation bias. Review of World Economics 2003, 139:389-418.
    • (2003) Review of World Economics , vol.139 , pp. 389-418
    • Peridy, N.1
  • 57
    • 0344547293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting volatility in financial markets: A review
    • Poon S.H., Granger C. Forecasting volatility in financial markets: A review. Journal of Economic Literature 2003, 41:478-539.
    • (2003) Journal of Economic Literature , vol.41 , pp. 478-539
    • Poon, S.H.1    Granger, C.2
  • 58
    • 48849086452 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility
    • Rapach D., Strauss J.K. Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility. Journal of Applied Econometrics 2008, 23:65-90.
    • (2008) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.23 , pp. 65-90
    • Rapach, D.1    Strauss, J.K.2
  • 59
    • 37549000103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The predictability of exchange rate volatility
    • Raunig B. The predictability of exchange rate volatility. Economics Letters 2008, 98:220-228.
    • (2008) Economics Letters , vol.98 , pp. 220-228
    • Raunig, B.1
  • 61
    • 0037323062 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real-exchange-rate uncertainty and private investment in LDCs
    • Serven L. Real-exchange-rate uncertainty and private investment in LDCs. Review of Economics and Statistics 2003, 85:212-218.
    • (2003) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.85 , pp. 212-218
    • Serven, L.1
  • 63
    • 20944451228 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Generating volatility forecasts from Value at Risk estimates
    • Taylor J. Generating volatility forecasts from Value at Risk estimates. Management Science 2005, 51:712-725.
    • (2005) Management Science , vol.51 , pp. 712-725
    • Taylor, J.1
  • 64
    • 33751304474 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility
    • Tenreyro S. On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility. Journal of Development Economics 2007, 82:485-508.
    • (2007) Journal of Development Economics , vol.82 , pp. 485-508
    • Tenreyro, S.1
  • 66
    • 0039229738 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Value at Risk for a mixture of normal distributions: The use of quasi-Bayesian estimation techniques
    • Venkataraman S. Value at Risk for a mixture of normal distributions: The use of quasi-Bayesian estimation techniques. Economic Perspectives 1997, 21:2-13.
    • (1997) Economic Perspectives , vol.21 , pp. 2-13
    • Venkataraman, S.1
  • 67
    • 0036000746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting exchange rate volatility
    • Vilasuso J. Forecasting exchange rate volatility. Economics Letters 2002, 76:59-64.
    • (2002) Economics Letters , vol.76 , pp. 59-64
    • Vilasuso, J.1
  • 68
    • 0000650195 scopus 로고
    • The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility
    • West K.D., Cho D. The predictive ability of several models of exchange rate volatility. Journal of Econometrics 1995, 69:367-391.
    • (1995) Journal of Econometrics , vol.69 , pp. 367-391
    • West, K.D.1    Cho, D.2
  • 69
    • 34547879155 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling financial security returns using Lévy processes
    • Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, B. John, L. Vadim (Eds.)
    • Wu L. Modeling financial security returns using Lévy processes. Handbook of Financial Engineering 2006, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam. B. John, L. Vadim (Eds.).
    • (2006) Handbook of Financial Engineering
    • Wu, L.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.