Belarus and the west: From estrangement to honeymoon

Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics

Volumn 27, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 217-240

  Ioffe, Grigory ^a  

^a RADFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 79957565924     PISSN: 13523279     EISSN: 17439116     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13523279.2011.564090     Document Type: Article

References (66)

1. Aleksandr Lukashenka's press conference for Belarusian and Russian journalists in Zhlobin, Belarus, 29 Dec. 2006, available at, http://www.president.gov.by/press35846.print.html., accessed 2 Jan. 2007.
2. Maxim Sokolov, 'Svyatochnyi rasskaz' [A Christmas tale], Izvestiya, 12 Dec. 2007, available at, http://www.izvestia.ru/sokolov/article3100087., accessed 8 March 2010.
3. In addition, relieved from the export tariff is oil delivered to Belarus through barter schemes under which no cash is paid for crude oil: Belarusian refineries process oil that belongs to their Russian partners and are paid by appropriating a fraction of that crude. A half of all Russian oil makes it to Belarus through such schemes. Also relieved from export duties is oil used to make products to be sold in Russia. Finally, to compensate Belarus partially for export duties on remaining oil purchases, a tariff for transporting 60 million tons of oil through Belarus to the West is increased by 11 per cent from its 2009 level.
4. Rossiiskimi interesami ne postupi-lis (We did not betray Russian interests), Vzglyad, 27 Jan. 2010, available at, http://www. vz.ru/economy/2010/1/27/370405.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
5. 'Missiya IMF otsenit novye usloviya postavki nefti s tochki zreniya ekonomiki Belarusi' (The IMF mission will evaluate new terms of oil supply from the perspective of the Belarusian economy), Beloruskie novosti, 28 Jan. 2010, available at, http://naviny.by/rubrics/ economic/2010/01/28/ic_news_113_325087., accessed 8 March 2010.
6. Stefan Wagstyl, 'Alexander Lukashenka: "We cannot be a closed country"', Financial Times, 18 Nov. 2008, available at, http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/525e1c14-b431-11dd-8e35-0000779fd18c.html., accessed 28 Jan. 2011.
7. The European Commission's Belarus Strategy, Brussels, Nov. 2006, available at, http://ec. europa.eu/external_relations/belarus/intro/non_paper_1106.pdf., accessed 25 Jan. 2008.
8. Alexander Lukashenka: press conference of 14 Jan. 2007, BELTA, 15 Jan. 2007, available at, http://www.belta.by., accessed 17 Jan. 2007.
9. Statement by Valery Voronetsky, deputy minister of foreign affairs of the Republic of Belarus, at the Conference 'Working Together - Strengthening the European Neighborhood Policy', Brussels, 3 Sept. 2007, available at, http://www.mfa.gov.by/en/press/official-releases/fa1aad88b52f8cdf.html., accessed 15 Nov. 2007.
10. Marina Rakhley, 'Ne slishkom li bystro Zapad menyaet knut na pryanik?' [Isn't the West replacing a stick by a carrot all too fast?], Belorusskie novosti, 10 Sept. 2008, available at, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2008/09/10/ic_articles_112_158892., accessed 28 Jan. 2011.
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12. David Marples, 'Will Lukashenka Be Welcomed in Prague?', The Jamestown Foundation: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol.6, No.26 (9 Feb. 2009), available at, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34482., accessed 8 March 2010.
13. 'Diyalog Ye S i Belarusi idze na umovakh Lukashenki' [The dialogue between the EU and Belarus is occurring on Lukashenka's terms], Nasha Niva, 7 Aug. 2009, available at, http://www.nn.by/index.php?c=ar&i=29254., accessed 8 March 2010.
14. Doyle McManus, 'Clinton Hails Belarus for Arms Policy - Europe: President stops in former soviet republic to commend it for giving up its nuclear weapons. But he also reprimands lawmakers for their resistance to political and economic reforms', The Los Angeles Times, 16 Jan. 1994, available at, http://article.latimes.com/1994-01-16/news/mn-12511_1_nuclear-weapons., accessed 15 Nov. 2008.
15. It was last extended in Jan. 2007 for two years. The Belarus Democracy Reauthorization Act of 2008 was referred to the House Foreign Affairs Committee on 5 May 2008, but no action has been taken since then and until Feb. 2011.
16. More details are provided in Grigory Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How the Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2008), Ch.6.
17. 'US orders Belarus embassy closed', Associated Press report, 1 May 2007, available at, http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/2008/05/01/2008-05-01_us_orders_belarus_ embassy_closed_.html#ixzz0UDf1gvVE., accessed 8 March 2010.
18. It is noteworthy that Silitsky's research site in Minsk has a 'European' web address,http:// www.belinstitute.eu.
19. To whup (colloquial for beat, or defeat convincingly) Americans has become a Russian obsession. Aware of that, Alexander Lukashenka thus described Russia's conflict with Georgia just a month after its end: 'This is no war between Russia and Georgia. This is Americans getting a knock in the teeth for the first time in years, and this is so preciously important': available at, http://www.izvestia.ru/politic/article3120312/index.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
20. Yuri Drakakhrust, 'Kavalachek pernika', Radio Liberty Belarusian Service, 5 Sept. 2008, available at, http://www.svaboda.org/content/article/1196637.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
21. Aleksandr Klaskovskii, 'Kak ya posporil s Bushem' [How I argued with Bush], Belorusskiye novsosti, 16 Dec. 2008, available at, http://naviny.by/rubrics/opinion/2008/12/16/ic_ articles_410_160369/., accessed 8 March 2010.
22. Andrew Wilson, 'Belarus After its Post-Georgia Elections', European Council on Foreign Relations, 26 Oct. 2008, available at, http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_wilson_on_ belarus., accessed 8 March 2010.
23. 'A Seasonal Chill', The Washington Post, 11 Jan. 2010, available at, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/10/AR2010011002262.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
24. Dmitry Peskov, 'Don't Throw Flames on Russia-Belarus Oil Talks', The Washington Post (Letters to the Editor), 16 Jan. 2010, available at, http://www.washingtonpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/15/AR2010011503897.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns., accessed 8 March 2010.
25. For detailed analysis of that model and its formational identity, see Ioffe, Understanding Belarus, Ch.4.
26. Grigory Ioffe, 'Understanding Belarus: Economy and Political Landscape', Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.56, No.1 (2004), pp.85-118.
27. Grigory Ioffe, 'Belarus and Chernobyl: Separating Seeds from Chaff', Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol.23, No.4 (2007), pp.353-6.
28. Mark Almond, 'Less Bizarre Than It Seems: The Landslide in Belarus Reflects Its Demonized Leader's Refusal to Back Market Fundamentalism', The Guardian, 21 March 2006.
29. Valerii Karbalevich, 'Pochemu menyaetsya kurs?' [Why is the course changing?], Nashe mnenie, 18 Nov. 2008, available at, http://nmnby.eu/news/analytics/1582.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
30. The rule allowed the government to interfere in the management of any company in order, for example, to demand that the company did not cut back on personnel or finance the development of a local sporting or fitness facility, and so forth: see Norcous & Partners, Exploring New Markets: Doing Business in Belarus, March 2008, available at, http://www.rln.lt/ download.php/fileid/270., accessed 8 March 2010.
31. Belarus: Country Brief 2009 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009), available at, http://web. worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/BELARUSEXTN/0,content MDK:20629010~menuPK:328439~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:328431,00.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
32. Doing Business in 2010 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009), available at, http://www. doingbusiness.org/Documents/DB10_Overview.pdf., accessed 8 March 2010.
33. Belarus: Country Brief 2009.
34. Ann Lewis (ed.), The EU and Belarus: Between Moscow and Brussels (London: Federal Trust of Education and Research, 2002), p.61 (emphasis added).
35. Aleksandr Zaitsev, 'Itogi vyborov: oppositsiyu kinuli, a narod ostavili v dura-kakh' [The outcome of the elections: the opposition is trashed and the people duped], Belorusskiye novosti, 29 Sept. 2008, available at, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2008/09/29/ic_articles_112_ 159202.
36. Irina Khalip, 'Spasitelnaya lozh' [A white lie], Yezhednevnyi zhurnal, 22 April 2009, available at, http://ej.ru/?a=note&id=9001., both accessed 8 March 2010.
37. Yan Maksymyuk, 'Chym zaniatstsa appazytsiy?' [What is the opposition doing?], Radio Liberty Belarusian Service, 26 May 2009, available at, http://www.svaboda.org/content/ transcript/1740088.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
38. Balasz Jarabik, Belarus: Are the Scales Tipping? (Madrid: FRIDE, a European Think Tank for Global Action, 3 March 2009), available at, http://www.fride.org/publication/576/belarus-are-the-scales-tipping., accessed 8 March 2010.
39. Andrew Wilson, 'A New Paradigm Or the Old Balancing Act?', European Council on Foreign Relations, 26 Oct. 2008, available at, http://ecfr.eu/content/entry/commentary_wilson_on_ belarus., accessed 8 March 2010.
40. Grigory Ioffe, 'Understanding Belarus: Questions of Language', Europe-Asia Studies, Vol.55, No.7 (2003), pp.1009-47 (p.1011).
41. Yurii Drakakhrust, 'Uroki Maldovy dlya Belarusi' [Moldovan lessons for Belarus], Radio Liberty Belarusian Service, 14 April 2009, available at, http://www.svaboda.org/content/ transcript/1608696.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
42. Fedor Lukyanov, 'Diktator naraskhvat' [A dictator in high demand], Gazeta.RU, 26 March 2009, available at, http://www.gazeta.ru/column/lukyanov/2964341.shtml., accessed 8 March 2010; emphasis added.
43. Yurii Drakakhrust, 'Vyartannye gazet chy vyartannye svabody?' [A return of newspapers or a return of freedom?], Radio Liberty Belarusian Service, 2 Dec. 2008, available at, http:// www.svaboda.org/content/transcript/1355300.html., accessed 8 March 2010.
44. 'Vilnius Unveils Caspian Pipe Pact', 10 Oct. 2007, available at, http://www.upstreamonline. com/live/article142128.ece., accessed 24 Jan 2011.
45. Nicu Popescu and Andrew Wilson, 'The Limits of Enlargement-lite: European and Russian Power in the Troubled Neighborhood' (European Council on Foreign Relations, June 2009), p.5; emphasis added; available at, http://ecfr.eu/page/-/documents/ECFR_eastern_ neighbourhood_report.pdf., accessed 28 Jan. 2011.
46. Jarabik, 'Belarus: Are the Scales Tipping?'; emphasis added.
47. An identical reasoning might be applied to George W. Bush's declaration that Georgia is a beacon of liberty on the same day (10 May 2005) that the first oil was pumped from the Baku end of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
48. David Marples, 'Will Lukashenka Be Welcomed in Prague?', The Jamestown Foundation: Eurasia Daily Monitor, Vol.6, No.26 (2009), available at, http://www.jamestown.org/ single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=34482., accessed 8 March 2010; emphasis added.
49. Yurii Drakakhrust, 'Europa i apazitsiya: shto i kamu rabit?' [Europe and the opposition: what to do and to whom?], Praski Accent, Talk Show of the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty, 24 Feb. 2009, available at, http://www.svaboda.org/content/transcript/1498724. html., accessed 8 March 2010; the River Bug marks the border between Poland and Belarus.
50. 'Oppozitsiya dolzhna sotrudnichat' s politicheskoi sistemoi a ne stavit yei palki v kolyosa' [The opposition has to collaborate with the political system and not put a spoke in the wheell], Belarus segodnya, 16 April 2009, available at, http://www.sb.by/post/83978., accessed 8 March 2010.
51. Aleksandr Zaitsev, 'Dlya sistemnoi oppozitsii gotovyat mesta v poslednem vagone' [For the systemic opposition seats in the bandwagon are prepared], Belorusskiye novosti, 21 April 2009, available at, http://naviny.by/rubrics/politic/2009/04/21/ic_articles_112_162263., accessed 8 March 2010.
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54. Kazaniecki has long been known to the Belarusian authorities as the major distributor of grants to the Belarusian opposition and a coach of subversive activities. When in March 2006 a group of Orange Revolution imitators set up a tent camp on one of the main squares of Minsk protesting at the official outcome of the presidential elections, Belarus segodnya, the government daily, reported that the attempt was directed by Kazaniecki over a mobile phone. Lengthy excerpts from his allegedly intercepted conversations (from his base in Warsaw) with Viktor Korneyenko, his point-man in Minsk, were broadcasted by the Belarusian state TV and published by Belarus segodnya.
55. Pavel Starodub, 'Liudi i kukly' [People and puppets], Belarus segodnya, 23 March 2006, available at, http://pda.sb.by/ post/50508/., accessed 28 Jan. 2011.
56. Ioffe, Understanding Belarus, p.201.
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61. Ioffe, Understanding Belarus, p.215.
62. Valerii Karbalevich, Alexander Lukashenko: Politicheskii portret [Aleksandr Lukashenko: A political portrait] (Moscow: Partizan, 2010), p.381.
63. Olga Shumylo-Tapiola, 'Causes and Consequences of Belarus's Post-Election Violence', 21 Dec. 2010, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, available at, http:// carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=42168., accessed 28 Jan. 2011.
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65. Vladimir Sokor, 'Glavnoye - pomeshat' Rossii proniknut' v Belarus' [The Main thing is to prevent Russia from penetrating Belarus], Delfi, 16 Jan. 2011, available at, http://ru.delfi.lt/ archive/article.php?id=40887083., accessed 28 Jan. 2011.
66. Nina Romanova, 'S protyanutoi truboi' [With an extended pipe], Belarus segodnya, 25 Jan. 2011, available at, http://www.sb.by/post/111520/., accessed 25 Jan. 2011.