Climate, energy transition and oil resources

Energy and Environment

Volumn 22, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 189-206

  McKillop, Andrew ^a  

^a CAR Resources Ltd   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FOSSIL FUELS; GLOBAL WARMING;

COPENHAGEN; ENERGY TRANSITIONS; GOVERNMENT POLICY; GOVERNMENT SPENDING; HUMAN SURVIVAL; OECD COUNTRIES; OIL PRICES; OIL RESOURCE; PRICE LEVELS; RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES; SCENARIO BUILDING;

PETROLEUM DEPOSITS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DEBT CRISIS; FOSSIL FUEL; GLOBAL WARMING; MITIGATION; OECD; RENEWABLE RESOURCE;

COPENHAGEN [(CTY) HOVEDSTADEN]; DENMARK; HOVEDSTADEN;

EID: 79956328940     PISSN: 0958305X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1260/0958-305X.22.3.189     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. Defining "sustainability" is very difficult. For a well referenced discussion: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainability
2. http://www.landlearnnsw.org.au/sustainability/what-is-sustainability http://www.sam-group.com/htmle/Sustainability%20Investing/core-theme.cfm
3. Fossil energy resource depletion and market pricing is central to this article. Concerning natural gas supply and pricing see for example: http://www.halliburton.com/public/solutions/contents/Shale/related-docs/H063771. pdf http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/the-coming-natural-gas-boom-is-not-all- its-fraccedup- to-be/192276 42/ For uranium supply and resource depletion issues: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/ 5060
4. http://www.desertec-asia.com/content/pl-comparative-costs.html http://www.greeningofoil.com/post/Greening-gas-delivery-LNG-versus-pipelines. aspx
5. See for example: Zaipu Tao and Mingyu Li, 'What is the limit of Chinese coal supplies- A STELLA model of Hubbert Peak'. Energy Policy, Volume 35, Issue 6, June 2007 See also: http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG- Report-Coal- 10-07-2007ms.pdf
6. The "bounce" of coal prices can be attributed to special factors including infrastructure constraints, renewed Chinese import demand, recovery of the iron & steel industry, etc. See for example: oid=480644&sn=2009+Detail&pid=296405 The price recovery follows a sharp fall in H1 2009: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Coal-prices-may-fall-but- not-coal-stocks- 17707-3-1.html
7. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000s-energy-crisis
8. http://thebreakthrough.org/blog/BTI-Investment-Brief.pdf http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/13/the-end-of-magical-climate- thinking
9. Coal price ref: http://paguntaka.org/2008/04/16/coal-prices-rebound-in- asia-marketand- tradding/ Oil price ref: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1- 181451519.html Uranium price ref: http://www.uranium-stocks.net/uranium-price- predictions/
10. Today's "oil shocks" are described by many economists as a non-problem. See: http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/WPM35.pdf The question of whether, or not the 1970s oil shocks were the root cause of high inflation at the time, can also be challenged. See for example http://www2.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/ wpol/schumpeter/pdf/Martin-Ellison.pdf
11. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/04/03/did-the-oil-price-boom-of-2008 - causecrisis/ tab/article/
12. http://www.energybulletin.net/node/2330 http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/ speeches/ mckillop.htm http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract-id=533107 http://mises.org/daily/2999 http://www.aeaweb.org/aea/conference/program/ retrieve.php?pdfid=15
13. http://www.petroleumworld.com/sunopf08122101.htm http://onlinejournal. com/artman/ publish/printer-5657.shtml
14. http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current-issues/ci12-9/ci12-9.html http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/01/pdf/c2.pdf
15. http://profile.nus.edu.sg/fass/polhaque/ipsr-sd.pdf http://www.prem- online.org/index.php?p=about&a=22
16. http://www.libraryindex.com/pages/103/Depletion-Conservation-Natural- Resources .html#ixzz0Yd4TXYTU http://www.tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/...term.../ LongTermOilSupplyPresentation.ppt
17. See for example http://humanscience.wikia.com/wiki/Resources:-Finite-and- Infinite-Resources http://www.mnforsustain.org/ehrlich-ehrlich-simon-bet-simon- view.htm
18. http://www.springerlink.com/content/86p653152102582j/fulltext.pdf?page=1
19. http://www.sustainer.org/pubs/limitstogrowth.pdf
20. Bjorn Lomborg, among others particularly underlines forecasting errors in the 1972 version of 'Limits to Growth', with radical extensions of his rejection of "depletionist" theses: http://www.21stcenturysciencetech. com/articles/Spring02/NoLimits.html
21. As noted in my article there are possible complete polar opposite viewpoints, on the question of growth or"de-growth". See for example: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-growth http://www.cetri.be/spip.php? article1419 http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/en/Online-discussions/Blogs/Global- greeneconomics/ Tuning-into-degrowth
22. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-Brief-History-of-the-Future
23. http://www.scitopics.com/Sustainable-development-renewable-and-non- renewable-resources.html http://www.scienceonline.co.uk/energy/nonrenewable.html http://lucy.ukc.ac.uk/lien/PNG/paper.html http://www.wiwi.uni-augsburg.de/vwl/ institut/ paper/291.pdf
24. Resource limits and oil depletion can be integrated into analysis and policy setting of many apparently unrelated sectors, for example financial and currency stability, or health care: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= 20601110&sid=a60APVwmz01g http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17456.html http://www.publichealthjrnl.com/article/S0033-3506(08)00096-6/abstract
25. The theme of creative destruction is applied by many " expansionists" as vector for attaining new states and conditions of mankind. Leading thinkers include Raymond Kurzweil http://www.singularity.com/
26. See for example: 'The Oil Intensity of Economic Output', R Barrell, S. Kirby, I Liadze, National Institute Economic Review, N° 205, 2008; and: http://www.un.org/esa/ policy/link/presentationsfall04/sjohnson-fall04.pdf http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/08/more-to-the-sto.html
27. See for example: :http://www.euractiv.com/en/energy/bp-see-volatility- increase/article- 175922 http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/oil/peak-oil/02/2010/bp- says-world-oil-use-peak-as-lowas- 95m-barrels-per-day.html http://www. worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/fact-sheets-WEO-2009.pdf
28. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/climate-action.htm
29. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4681935.stm https://www.og.decc.gov. uk/information/bb-updates/chapters/Table4-3.htm
30. http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1853252,00.html
31. http://www.ok.gov/marginalwells/documents/ Bernstein%20Energy%20US%20Marginal %20Economics.pdf http://www.sciencedaily.com/ releases/2007/11/071112140720.htm
32. The question of resource rent partition is complex and notably includes the role of Sovereign wealth funds, parly nationalizing large natural resource rents. See for example: http://www.earthrights.net/docs/oilrent.html http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/nft/2003/fispol/index.htm The liberal critique includes the concept of "Dutch disease" from overtaxing resource rents. See eg: http://www3.hi.is/~gylfason/Dutch%20Disease%20Palgravex.pdf
33. http://www.unep.org/Documents.Multilingual/Default.asp? http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/biofuels.htm http://news.mongabay.com/bioenergy/ 2006/06/first-generation-biofuels-not.html
34. See for example: http://www.wrm.org.uy/subjects/agrofuels/Secon- Generation-Biofuels.pdf
35. http://www.celsias.com/article/oil-intensity-foods/
36. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/em2009/docs/Hallam.pdf http://www.iied.org/pubs/pdfs/12551IIED.pdf http://engineering.dartmouth.edu/ gsbproject/difference.html
37. See for example http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,479940, 00.html http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&refer=news&sid= ayonmpI2Y1dA
38. http://www.pi.energy.gov/documents/20080915- WorldBiofuelsProductionPotential.pdf
39. 1 ton of bioethanol fuel (98% ethanol) is energy equivalent to about 0.65 tons oil http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonne-of-oil-equivalent
40. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-22/windmill-boom-curbs-electric - powerprices- for-rwe-iberdrola.html
41. http://www.ewea.org/index.php?id=60&no-cache=1&tx-ttnews[tt-news ] =1830&tx-ttnews[backPid]=1&cHash=76789a6f348cfff08d4798563eec464a
42. See reference 41 and: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind-power
43. See for example http://www.smartgridnews.com/artman/publish/commentary/ Four-Keys-to-Managing-Smart-Grid-Evolution-564.html
44. http://asian-power.com/news/2712 http://www.ceere.org/rerl/projects/ support/mwwg/minutes/MWWG-Wright-07-02-21.pdf
45. See for example: http://info.tm.edu.ro/green/upload/flux2/biogazul.pps htttp://ezinearticles.com/?State-of-Second-Generation-Biofuels-in-India&id= 3753165
46. http://www.thebioenergysite.com/articles/370/eu-27-biofuels-annual- report-2009 http://www.palmoilhq.com/PalmOilNews/e-u-s-biofuel-norms-flawed- penalizes-palmoil- executive/
47. http://news.cnet.com/8301-10784-3-9790232-7.html http://www. popularmechanics.com/cars/alternative-fuel/biofuels/4279508 http://www. economist.com/debate/days/view/323
48. See references 34, 45, 46 and for example: http://www.oilgae.com/ http://www.biofuelssummit. com/
49. Improved national security from renewable energy is often advanced as a major advantage. See for example: http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/ article/2010/02/energy-diversificationa-national-security-imperative http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/security.aspx
50. http://www.jstor.org/pss/1148086
51. Some factions of the Ludwig van Mises "school" or tendency claim that climate change extremists are "sabotaging the economy". See for example: http://wichitaliberty.org/environment/not-evil-just-wrong- powerful-refutation-al-goreenvironmental- extremism/ See also: http://mises.org/humanaction/chap16sec9.asp http://mises.org/daily/3886
52. See for example: http://www.mees.com/postedarticles/oped/v51n44-5OD01.htm http://www.energyinst.org.uk/content/files/tbps.pdf http://www.brookings.edu/ speeches/2006/0208china-bader.aspx http://jwelb.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/ full/1/1/5
53. Comparison of published reserve estimates shows large or extreme variations. Explanations of these discrepancies range widely, from oil industry rivalry and tax exposure, and technical factors to colonial era relations and policies. See for example: http://middleeast.about.com/od/oilenergy/a/me080207d. htm http://www.lilith-ezine.com/articles/politics/Two-Hundred-Dollar-Oil.html http://en.rian.ru/business/20100131/157730220.html
54. As noted in the article, the exact opposite argument - of systematically overestimated oil reserves - is easier to back up. See for example: http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org/ wbp/peak-oil/161 http://theburningplatform. com/blog/2010/03/31/oil-reserves-overstated-by-33/ http://planetforlife.com/ oilcrisis/oilreserves.html
55. Definitions of resource rent: http://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp? ID=2332 http://en .wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource-rent
56. See for example: http://depot.gdnet.org/gdnshare/pdf2/online-journals/ cerdi/2004-3/ Collier.pdf
57. See for example: http://www.ihsglobalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail6009.htm http://www .ocnus.net/artman2/publish/Business-1/The-Kremlin-Wars.shtml
58. Data for EU27 countries shows most countries already heavily tax motor fuels and may have biased carbon fiscal concepts. See for example: http://whatmatters.mckinseydigital.com/the-debate-zone/carbon-tax-vs-cap-and- trade http://www.scientificamerican.com/ article.cfm?id=keep-oil-prices-high http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/01518556367,00.html
59. Data for EU27 countries shows most countries already heavily tax motor fuels and may have biased carbon fiscal concepts. See for example:http:// whatmatters.mckinseydigital.com/the-debate-zone/carbon-tax-vs-cap-and-trade http://www.scientificamerican.com/ article.cfm?id=keep-oil-prices-high http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,556367,00.html
60. So-called "after oil strategy" for exporter countries includes several elements. See for example:http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/med/2003/ eng/fasano/index.htm http://www.edhec-risk.com/ALM/DB-Research-Chair
61. See for example: http://www.exxonmobil.com/corporate/news-speeches- 20090219-rmk.aspx http://blog.jaluo.com/?p=2631 http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ neudc07/docs/neudc07-s1-p19-mcmillan.pdf http://www.fcnp.com/613/peakoil.htm http://www.unctad.org/sections/wcmu/docs/ com2em20p001-en.pdf
62. See previous reference and: http://www.taxfoundation.org/news/show/1168. html http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/Russia/Oil.html http://www.mees.com/ postedarticles/oped/ v51n41-5OD01.html
63. See previous reference and: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depletion- (accounting) http://www.atr.org/userfiles/file/2010-ATR-Energy-Tax-Series- PercentageDepletion.pdf http://www.un.org/esa/ffd/tax/2007DRM-SEG/ 01TaxationNaturalResources.ppt
64. Acting as a kind of barometer of public anguish at oil price rises, the "abiotic theory" is occasionally recycled by "expansionists" : http://www.physorg.com/news167835116.html http://www.fromthewilderness.com/ free/ww3/100404-abiotic-oil.shtml One of Saturn's moons, Titan, may also provide hope to "expansionists": http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/02/ titans-organic/
65. See for example: http://www.desertec.org/downloads/GCREADER.pdf http://www .censolar.es/erec2040.pdf http://130.226.56.153/rispubl/ presentations/Eisenbeiss.pdf We can note that as recently as 2000-2003, near total replacement of fossil fuels by the "Hydrogen Economy", by about 2040, was presented as technologically and economically feasible. See eg.: http://www.wfeo.org/documents/download/ annespresenation.pdf
66. See for example: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18546.html http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/02/energy-transition http://www.futurescenarios.org/content/view/15/30/ Article from 1982: http://dspace.mit.edu/ bitstream/handle/1721.1/2016/SWP-1325-09065908.pdf? sequence=1
67. Many non-energy objectives or strategies are incorporated in national "energy transition" policies and programmes. See for example: http://www.the-get.com/ http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content= a787448206&db=all
68. See for example: http://iseof.org/pdf/theoildrum-5544.pdf
69. http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-Report-Coal-10- 07- 2007ms.pdf
70. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak-uranium http://www.energywatchgroup. org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG-Report-Uranium-3-12- 2006ms.pdf
71. Future gas supply for EU27 countries is impacted by the "Iran nuclear affair" with strong dependence of Iran on Russian nuclear technology, and the fact that with Qatar, Iran and Russia have two of the largest national reserves of gas in the world. See for example: http://www1.american.edu/TED/irannuke.htm See also: http://blogs.euobserver.com/ petersen/2010/01/07/nabucco-supplies-to-iran-russia/ http://www.insideiran.org/ critical-comments/europe-supports-sanctioning-iran-whilestaking- hopes-on-tehran's-energy-supply/
72. http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2010/03/11/is-saudi-aramco-laughing- off-clean-tech/ www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2241353/analysts-warn- capital-intensive
73. See for example: http://www.evworld.com/article.cfm?storyid=1751